Hurricane Sandy (2012, referred to as Current Sandy) was among the most devastating storms to impact Connecticut’s overhead electric distribution network, resulting in over 15 000 outage locations that affected more than 500 000 customers. In this paper, the severity of tree-caused outages in Connecticut is estimated under future-climate Hurricane Sandy simulations, each exhibiting strengthened winds and heavier rain accumulation over the study area from large-scale thermodynamic changes in the atmosphere and track changes in the year ~2100 (referred to as Future Sandy). Three machine-learning models used five weather simulations and the ensemble mean of Current and Future Sandy, along with land-use and overhead utility infrastructure data, to predict the severity and spatial distribution of outages across the Eversource Energy service territory in Connecticut. To assess the influence of increased precipitation from Future Sandy, two approaches were compared: an outage model fit with a full set of variables accounting for both wind and precipitation, and a reduced set with only wind. Future Sandy displayed an outage increase of 42%–64% when using the ensemble of WRF simulations fit with three different outage prediction models. This study is a proof of concept for the assessment of increased outage risk resulting from potential changes in tropical cyclone intensity associated with late-century thermodynamic changes driven by the IPCC AR4 A2 emissions scenario.

A growing number of electricity utilities use machine learning-based outage prediction models (OPMs) to predict the impact of storms on their networks for sustainable management. The accuracy of OPM predictions is sensitive to sample size and event severity representativeness in the training dataset, the extent of which has not yet been quantified. This study devised a randomized and out-of-sample validation experiment to quantify an OPM’s prediction uncertainty to different training sample sizes and event severity representativeness. The study showed random error decreasing by more than 100% for sample sizes ranging from 10 to 80 extratropical events, and by 32% for sample sizes from 10 to 40 thunderstorms. This study quantified the minimum number of sample size for the OPM attaining an acceptable prediction performance. The results demonstrated that conditioning the training of the OPM to a subset of events representative of the predicted event’s severity reduced the underestimation bias exhibited in high-impact events and the overestimation bias in low-impact ones. We used cross entropy (CE) to quantify the relatedness of weather variable distribution between the training dataset and the forecasted event.

Thunderstorms are complex weather phenomena that cause substantial power outages in a short period. This makes thunderstorm outage prediction challenging using eventwise outage prediction models (OPMs), which summarize the storm dynamics over the entire course of the storm into a limited number of parameters. We developed a new, temporally sensitive outage prediction framework designed for models to learn the hourly dynamics of thunderstorm-caused outages directly from weather forecasts. Validation of several models built on this hour-by-hour prediction framework and comparison with a baseline model show abilities to accurately report temporal and storm-wide outage characteristics, which are vital for planning utility responses to storm-caused power grid damage.