Extreme heat undermines the working capacity of individuals, resulting in lower productivity, and thus economic output. Here we analyse the present and future economic damages due to reduced labour productivity caused by extreme heat in Europe. For the analysis of current impacts, we focused on heatwaves occurring in four recent anomalously hot years (2003, 2010, 2015, and 2018) and compared our findings to the historical period 1981–2010. In the selected years, the total estimated damages attributed to heatwaves amounted to 0.3–0.5% of European gross domestic product (GDP). However, the identified losses were largely heterogeneous across space, consistently showing GDP impacts beyond 1% in more vulnerable regions. Future projections indicate that by 2060 impacts might increase in Europe by a factor of almost five compared to the historical period 1981–2010 if no further mitigation or adaptation actions are taken, suggesting the presence of more pronounced effects in the regions where these damages are already acute.

The frequency of extreme heat events, such as the summer of 2003 in Europe, and their corresponding consequences for human beings are expected to increase under a warmer climate. The joint collaboration of institutional agencies and multidisciplinary approaches is essential for a successful development of heat-health warning systems and action plans which can reduce the impacts of extreme heat on the population. The present work constitutes a state-of-the-art review of 16 European heat-health warning systems and heat-health action plans, based on the existing literature, web search (over the National Meteorological Services websites) and questionnaires. The aim of this study is to pave the way for future heat-health warning systems, such as the one currently under development in the framework of the Horizon 2020 HEAT-SHIELD project. Some aspects are highlighted among the variety of examined European warning systems. The meteorological variables that trigger the warnings should present a clear link with the impact under consideration and should be chosen depending on the purpose and target of the warnings. Setting long-term planning actions as well as pre-alert levels might prevent and reduce damages due to heat. Finally, education and communication are key elements of the success of a warning system.

High temperatures lead to heat-related human stress and an increased mortality risk. To quantify heat discomfort and the relevant dangers, heat stress indices combine different meteorological variables such as temperature, relative humidity, radiation and wind speed. In this paper, a set of widely-used heat stress indices is analyzed and compared to the heat index currently used to issue official heat warnings in Switzerland, considering 28 Swiss weather stations for the years 1981–2017. We investigate how well warnings based on the heat index match warning days and warning periods that are calculated from alternative heat stress indices. The latter might allow for more flexibility in terms of specific warning demands and impact-based warnings. It is shown that the percentage of alternative warnings that match the official warnings varies among indices. Considering the heat index as reference, the simplified wet bulb globe temperature performs well and has some further advantages such as no lower bound and allowing for the calculation of climatological values. Yet, other indices (e.g., with higher dependencies on humidity) can have some added value, too. Thus, regardless of the performance in terms of matches, the optimal index to use strongly depends on the purpose of the warning.

An increasing fraction of people living in urban areas and the expected increase in long lasting heat waves highlight the important role of urban climates in terms of future climate change impacts, especially with relation to the heat-health sector. Due to the urban heat island (UHI) effect and its (generally) increased intensity particularly during nighttime, people living in urban areas happen to be more affected by heat-related discomfort and health risks than those in non-urban regions. In this contribution, temperatures of both rural and urban sites (station couples) in Switzerland and Southern Germany are analyzed, using (i) observed as well as (ii) bias-corrected and downscaled climate model data for daily minimum (tmin) and daily maximum temperature (tmax) to account for the UHI in future climates. As meteorological data are often restricted to locations of long-term measurements at rural sites only, they need to be transferred to urban sites first. For this purpose, the well-established quantile mapping technique (QM) is tested in a two-step manner. The resulting products are urban time series at daily resolution for tmin and tmax. By analyzing the temperature differences of the observed climate at rural sites and their respective urban counterparts and by assuming a stationary relationship between both, we can represent the UHI in future climates, which is quantified in terms of heat indices based on tmin and tmax (tropical nights, summer days, hot days).The QM performance is evaluated using long-term weather station data of a Zurich station couple in a comprehensive cross-validation framework. Results reveal a promising performance in the present-day climate, given very low biases in the validation.Applying the proposed method to the employed station couples, projections indicate distinct urban-rural temperature differences (UHI) during nighttime (considering the frequency of tropical nights based on tmin) compared to weak differences during the day (considering the frequency of summer days and hot days based on tmax). Moreover, scenarios suggest the frequency of all indices to dramatically rise at the urban site by the end of the century under a strong emission scenario (RCP8.5): compared to the rural site, the number of tropical nights almost doubles while the number of summer days reveals about 15% more days at the urban site when focusing on the station couple in Zurich and the late scenario period. The lack of nighttime relief, indicated by tmin not falling below 20°C (i.e. a tropical night), is especially problematic in terms of human health and makes the study of the urban climate in general and the UHI effect in particular indispensable.

Climate projections indicate an increasing risk of dry and hot episodes in Central Europe, including in Switzerland. However, models display a large spread in projections of changes in summer drying, highlighting the importance of related observations to evaluate climate models and constrain projections. Land hydrological variables play an essential role for these projections. This is particularly the case for soil moisture and land evaporation, which are directly affecting the development of droughts and heatwaves in both present and future.The recent 2020 spring as well as 2015 and 2018 summer droughts in Switzerland have highlighted the importance of monitoring and assessing changes of soil moisture and land evaporation, which are strongly related to drought impacts on agriculture, forestry, and ecosystems.The only Switzerland-wide soil moisture monitoring programme currently in place is the SwissSMEX (Swiss Soil Moisture Experiment) measurement network. It was initiated in 2008 and comprises 19 soil moisture measurement profiles at 17 different sites (grassland, forest and arable land). Since 2017, seven grassland SwissSMEX sites are complemented with land evaporation measurements from mini-lysimeters.Here we analyze long-term satellite-based drought parameters, namely ASCAT Soil Water Index (SWI) derived from an H SAF test data set and LSA SAF Meteosat land evaporation products. We compare the satellite-based datasets with the SwissSMEX in-situ measurements of soil moisture and lysimeter land evaporation. The comparison of in-situ soil moisture and land evaporation data with the satellite parameters shows strong agreement in terms of anomalies. SWI indicates high correlations of 0.6 to 0.8 with in-situ measurements. The Meteosat land evaporation products strongly agree with measurements, with correlations of 0.7 and 0.9 for potential and actual land evaporation, respectively (Burgstall et al.).These analyses provide useful insights in order to provide near-real time monitoring, enhance process understanding and for a better preparedness for future droughts.References:Burgstall, A. et al., Climatological drought monitoring in Switzerland using EUMETSAT SAF satellite products, Remote Sensing, in preparation.