In the Ocean, the seasonal cycle is the mode that couples climate forcing to ecosystem response in production, diversity and carbon export. A better characterisation of the ecosystem's seasonal cycle therefore addresses an important gap in our ability to estimate the sensitivity of the biological pump to climate change. In this study, the regional characteristics of the seasonal cycle of phytoplankton biomass in the Southern Ocean are examined in terms of the timing of the bloom initiation, its amplitude, regional scale variability and the importance of the climatological seasonal cycle in explaining the overall variance. The seasonal cycle was consequently defined into four broad zonal regions; the subtropical zone (STZ), the transition zone (TZ), the Antarctic circumpolar zone (ACZ) and the marginal ice zone (MIZ). Defining the Southern Ocean according to the characteristics of its seasonal cycle provides a more dynamic understanding of ocean productivity based on underlying physical drivers rather than climatological biomass. The response of the biology to the underlying physics of the different seasonal zones resulted in an additional classification of four regions based on the extent of inter-annual seasonal phase locking and the magnitude of the integrated seasonal biomass. This regionalisation contributes towards an improved understanding of the regional differences in the sensitivity of the Southern Oceans ecosystem to climate forcing, potentially allowing more robust predictions of the effects of long term climate trends.

Climate change is expected to elicit widespread alterations to nutrient and light supply, which interact to influence phytoplankton growth and their seasonal cycles. Using 25 years of satellite chlorophyll a data, we show that large regions of the Southern Ocean express significant multi-decadal trends in phenological indices that are typically larger (<50 days decade^–1) than previously reported in modelling studies (<10 days decade^–1). Although regionally dependent, there is an overall tendency for phytoplankton blooms to increase in amplitude, decline in seasonality, initiate later, terminate earlier and have shorter durations, except in the ice, which initiate earlier and have longer durations. Investigating relationships with prominent climate drivers highlights regional sensitivities and complexities of multiple interacting aspects of a changing climate. Seasonal adjustments of this magnitude at the base of the food web can de-synchronize energy transfer to higher trophic levels, threatening ecosystem services and impacting global climate by altering natural CO₂ uptake.

Southern Ocean primary productivity is principally controlled by adjustments in light and iron limitation, but the spatial and temporal determinants of iron availability, accessibility, and demand are poorly constrained, which hinders accurate long-term projections. We present a multidecadal record of phytoplankton photophysiology between 1996 and 2022 from historical in situ datasets collected by Biogeochemical Argo (BGC-Argo) floats and ship-based platforms. We find a significant multidecadal trend in irradiance-normalized nonphotochemical quenching due to increasing iron stress, with concomitant declines in regional net primary production. The observed trend of increasing iron stress results from changing Southern Ocean mixed-layer physics as well as complex biological and chemical feedback that is indicative of important ongoing changes to the Southern Ocean carbon cycle.

Net primary production (NPP) fueled by nitrate is often equated with carbon export, providing a metric for CO₂ removal to the deep ocean. This “new production paradigm” assumes that nitrification, the oxidation of regenerated ammonium to nitrate, is negligible in the sunlit upper ocean. While surface layer nitrification has been measured in other oceanic regions, very few data exist for the Southern Ocean. We measured NPP, nitrogen (N) uptake, and nitrification in the upper 200 m across the Atlantic Southern Ocean in winter and summer. Rates of winter mixed‐layer nitrate uptake were low, while ammonium uptake was surprisingly high. NPP was also low, such that NPP and total N (nitrate+ammonium) uptake were decoupled; we attribute this to ammonium consumption by heterotrophic bacteria. By contrast, NPP and total N uptake were strongly coupled in summer except at two stations where an additional regenerated N source, likely dissolved organic N, apparently supported 30–45% of NPP. Summertime nitrate uptake rates were fairly high and nitrate fueled >50% of NPP, indicating the potential for significant carbon export. Nitrification supplied <10% of the nitrate consumed in summertime surface waters, while in winter, mixed‐layer nitrification was on average 16 times higher than nitrate uptake. Despite the near‐zero nitrification rates measured in the summer mixed layer, the classically defined f ratio does not well‐represent Southern Ocean carbon export potential annually. This is because some fraction of the nitrate regenerated in the winter mixed layer is likely supplied to phytoplankton in summer; its consumption cannot, therefore, be equated with export.