This paper analyses the influence of climate change and land development on future flood risk for selected Austrian flood-prone municipalities. As part of an anticipatory micro-scale risk assessment we simulated four different inundation scenarios for current and future 100- and 300-year floods (which included a climate change allowance), developed scenarios of future settlement growth in floodplains and evaluated changes in flood damage potentials and flood risk until the year 2030. Findings show that both climate change and settlement development significantly increase future levels of flood risk. However, the respective impacts vary strongly across the different cases. The analysis indicates that local conditions, such as the topography of the floodplain, the spatial allocation of vulnerable land uses or the type of land development (e.g. residential, commercial or industrial) in the floodplain are the key determinants of the respective effects of climate change and land development on future levels of flood risk. The case study analysis highlights the general need for a more comprehensive consideration of the local determinants of flood risk in order to increase the effectiveness of an adaptive management of flood risk dynamics.

This paper analyses the future orientation of flood risk management in Austria. Framed by a systematic review of risk reduction measures, we assess the extent to which Austrian policies are characteristic of an anticipatory, forward-looking flood management approach to cope with expected future stresses on the flood risk, such as climate change and land development. The analysis shows that risk reduction measures build on status quo assessments and do not explicitly consider future changes in the flood hazard or vulnerability. However, new design standards for extreme events, the proliferation of large-scale flood retention, tightened land development and building restrictions, and novel planning instruments indicate that Austrian policies are increasingly forward-looking to more effectively mitigate future increases in the flood risk. This temporal reorientation is a consequence of a wider policy shift from flood control to integrated flood risk management. Faced with the increasing spatial interplay of risk reduction measures (e.g. securing land for flood runoff and flood retention), our analysis shows that inter-sectoral cooperation between water management and spatial planning can support long-term flood management decisions and maintain the ability to adapt to changing future conditions.