Several studies have identified clinical, psychosocial, patient characteristic, and perioperative variables that are associated with persistent postsurgical pain; however, the relative effect of these variables has yet to be quantified. The aim of the study was to provide a systematic review and meta-analysis of predictor variables associated with persistent pain after total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Included studies were required to measure predictor variables prior to or at the time of surgery, include a pain outcome measure at least 3 months post-TKA, and include a statistical analysis of the effect of the predictor variable(s) on the outcome measure. Counts were undertaken of the number of times each predictor was analysed and the number of times it was found to have a significant relationship with persistent pain. Separate meta-analyses were performed to determine the effect size of each predictor on persistent pain. Outcomes from studies implementing uni- and multivariable statistical models were analysed separately. Thirty-two studies involving almost 30 000 patients were included in the review. Preoperative pain was the predictor that most commonly demonstrated a significant relationship with persistent pain across uni- and multivariable analyses. In the meta-analyses of data from univariate models, the largest effect sizes were found for: other pain sites, catastrophizing, and depression. For data from multivariate models, significant effects were evident for: catastrophizing, preoperative pain, mental health, and comorbidities. Catastrophizing, mental health, preoperative knee pain, and pain at other sites are the strongest independent predictors of persistent pain after TKA.

BACKGROUND: Conditioned pain modulation paradigms are often used to assess the diffuse noxious inhibitory control (DNIC) system. DNICs provide one of the main supraspinal pain inhibitory pathways and are impaired in several chronic pain populations. Only one previous study has examined the psychometric properties of the conditioned pain modulation technique and this study did not evaluate intersession reliability.OBJECTIVES: To evaluate and compare the intra‐ and intersession reliability of two conditioned pain modulation paradigms using different conditioning stimuli, and to determine the time course of conditioned pain inhibition following stimulus removal.METHODS: An electronic pressure transducer was used to determine the pressure‐pain threshold at the knee during painful conditioning of the opposite hand using the ischemic arm test and the cold pressor test. Assessments were completed twice on one day and repeated once approximately three days later.RESULTS: The two conditioning stimuli resulted in a similar increase in the pressure‐pain threshold at the knee, reflecting presumed activation of the DNIC system. Intrasession intraclass correlation coefficients for the cold pressor (0.85) and ischemic arm tests (0.75) were excellent. The intersession intraclass correlation coefficient for the cold pressor test was good (0.66) but was poor for the ischemic arm test (−0.4). Inhibition of the pressure‐pain threshold remained significant at 10 min following conditioning, but returned to baseline by 15 min.CONCLUSIONS: Within‐session reliability of DNIC assessment using conditioned pain modulation paradigms was excellent, but the applicability of assessing pain modulation over multiple sessions was influenced by the conditioning stimulus. The cold pressor test was the superior technique.