Based on oil fate modeling of the Deepwater Horizon spill through August 2010, during June and July 2010, ~89% of the oil surfaced, ~5% entered (by dissolving or as microdroplets) the deep plume (>900 m), and ~6% dissolved and biodegraded between 900 m and 40 m. Subsea dispersant application reduced surfacing oil by ~7% and evaporation of volatiles by ~26%. By July 2011, of the total oil, ~41% evaporated, ~15% was ashore and in nearshore (10 m (including 1.5% after August 2010). Volatile and soluble fractions that did not evaporate biodegraded by the end of August 2010, leaving residual oil to disperse and potentially settle. Model estimates were validated by comparison to field observations of floating oil and atmospheric emissions.

Oil fate and exposure modeling addresses the complexities of oil composition, weathering, partitioning in the environment, and the distributions and behaviors of aquatic biota to estimate exposure histories, i.e., oil component concentrations and environmental conditions experienced over time. Several approaches with increasing levels of complexity (i.e., aquatic toxicity model tiers, corresponding to varying purposes and applications) have been and continue to be developed to predict adverse effects resulting from these exposures. At Tiers 1 and 2, toxicity-based screening thresholds for assumed representative oil component compositions are used to inform spill response and risk evaluations, requiring limited toxicity data, analytical oil characterizations, and computer resources. Concentration-response relationships are employed in Tier 3 to quantify effects of assumed oil component mixture compositions. Oil spill modeling capabilities presently allow predictions of spatial and temporal compositional changes during exposure, which support mixture-based modeling frameworks. Such approaches rely on summed effects of components using toxic units to enable more realistic analyses (Tier 4). This review provides guidance for toxicological studies to inform the development of, provide input to, and validate Tier 4 aquatic toxicity models for assessing oil spill effects on aquatic biota. Evaluation of organisms' exposure histories using a toxic unit model reflects the current state-of the-science and provides an improved approach for quantifying effects of oil constituents on aquatic organisms. Since the mixture compositions in toxicity tests are not representative of field exposures, modelers rely on studies using single compounds to build toxicity models accounting for the additive effects of dynamic mixture exposures that occur after spills. Single compound toxicity data are needed to quantify the influence of exposure duration and modifying environmental factors (e.g., temperature, light) on observed effects for advancing use of this framework. Well-characterized whole oil bioassay data should be used to validate and refine these models.

Trajectory and fate modeling of the oil released during the Deepwater Horizon blowout was performed for April to September of 2010 using a variety of input data sets, including combinations of seven hydrodynamic and four wind models, to determine the inputs leading to the best agreement with observations and to evaluate their reliability for quantifying exposure of marine resources to floating and subsurface oil. Remote sensing (satellite imagery) data were used to estimate the amount and distribution of floating oil over time for comparison with the model’s predictions. The model-predicted locations and amounts of shoreline oiling were compared to documentation of stranded oil by shoreline assessment teams. Surface floating oil trajectory and distribution was largely wind driven. However, trajectories varied with the hydrodynamic model used as input, and was closest to observations when using specific implementations of the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model modeled currents that accounted for both offshore and nearshore currents. Shoreline oiling distributions reflected the paths of the surface oil trajectories and were more accurate when westward flows near the Mississippi Delta were simulated. The modeled movements and amounts of oil floating over time were in good agreement with estimates from interpretation of remote sensing data, indicating initial oil droplet distributions and oil transport and fate processes produced oil distribution results reliable for evaluating environmental exposures in the water column and from floating oil at water surface. The model-estimated daily average water surface area affected by floating oil >1.0 g/m² was 6,720 km², within the range of uncertainty for the 11,200 km² estimate based on remote sensing. Modeled shoreline oiling extended over 2,600 km from the Apalachicola Bay area of Florida to Terrebonne Bay area of Louisiana, comparing well to the estimated 2,100 km oiled based on incomplete shoreline surveys.