The incidence of human papillomavirus (HPV)-positive oropharyngeal cancer, a disease affecting younger patients, is rapidly increasing. Cetuximab, an epidermal growth factor receptor inhibitor, has been proposed for treatment de-escalation in this setting to reduce the toxicity of standard cisplatin treatment, but no randomised evidence exists for the efficacy of this strategy. We did an open-label randomised controlled phase 3 trial at 32 head and neck treatment centres in Ireland, the Netherlands, and the UK, in patients aged 18 years or older with HPV-positive low-risk oropharyngeal cancer (non-smokers or lifetime smokers with a smoking history of <10 pack-years). Eligible patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive, in addition to radiotherapy (70 Gy in 35 fractions), either intravenous cisplatin (100 mg/m2 on days 1, 22, and 43 of radiotherapy) or intravenous cetuximab (400 mg/m2 loading dose followed by seven weekly infusions of 250 mg/m2). The primary outcome was overall severe (grade 3-5) toxicity events at 24 months from the end of treatment. The primary outcome was assessed by intention-to-treat and per-protocol analyses. This trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN33522080. Between Nov 12, 2012, and Oct 1, 2016, 334 patients were recruited (166 in the cisplatin group and 168 in the cetuximab group). Overall (acute and late) severe (grade 3-5) toxicity did not differ significantly between treatment groups at 24 months (mean number of events per patient 4·8 [95% CI 4·2-5·4] with cisplatin vs 4·8 [4·2-5·4] with cetuximab; p=0·98). At 24 months, overall all-grade toxicity did not differ significantly either (mean number of events per patient 29·2 [95% CI 27·3-31·0] with cisplatin vs 30·1 [28·3-31·9] with cetuximab; p=0·49). However, there was a significant difference between cisplatin and cetuximab in 2-year overall survival (97·5% vs 89·4%, hazard ratio 5·0 [95% CI 1·7-14·7]; p=0·001) and 2-year recurrence (6·0% vs 16·1%, 3·4 [1·6-7·2]; p=0·0007). Compared with the standard cisplatin regimen, cetuximab showed no benefit in terms of reduced toxicity, but instead showed significant detriment in terms of tumour control. Cisplatin and radiotherapy should be used as the standard of care for HPV-positive low-risk patients who are able to tolerate cisplatin. Cancer Research UK.

Purpose: Intratumoural hypoxia and immunity have been correlated with patient outcome in various tumour settings. However, these factors are not currently considered for treatment selection in head and neck cancer (HNC) due to lack of validated biomarkers. Here we sought to develop a hypoxia-immune classifier with potential application in patient prognostication and prediction of response to targeted therapy. Experimental design: A 54-gene hypoxia-immune signature was constructed based on literature review. Gene expression was analysed in silico using the TCGA HNC dataset (n=275) and validated using two independent cohorts (n=130 and 123). Immunohistochemistry was used to investigate the utility of a simplified protein signature. The spatial distribution of hypoxia and immune markers was examined using multiplex immunofluorescence staining. Results: Unsupervised hierarchical clustering of TCGA dataset (development cohort) identified three patient subgroups with distinct hypoxia-immune phenotypes and survival profiles: hypoxia^low/immune^high, hypoxia^high/immune^low and mixed, with 5-year overall survival (OS) rates of 71%, 51% and 49% respectively (p=0.0015). The prognostic relevance of the hypoxia-immune gene signature was replicated in two independent validation cohorts. Only PD-L1 and intratumoural CD3 protein expression were associated with improved OS on multivariate analysis. Hypoxia^low/immune^high and hypoxia^high/immune^low tumours were over-represented in 'inflamed' and 'immune-desert' microenvironmental profiles respectively. Multiplex staining demonstrated an inverse correlation between CA-IX expression and prevalence of intratumoural CD3+ T cells (r=-0.5464, p=0.0377), further corroborating the transcription-based classification. Conclusion: We developed and validated a hypoxia-immune prognostic transcriptional classifier, which may have clinical application to guide the use of hypoxia modification and targeted immunotherapies for the treatment of HNC.

Predictive tools, utilising biomarkers, aim to objectively assessthe potentialresponse toa particular clinical intervention in order to direct treatment.Conventional cancer therapy remains poorly served by predictive biomarkers, despite being the mainstay of treatment for most patients. In contrast, targeted therapy benefits from a clearly defined protein target for potential biomarker assessment. We discuss potential data sources of predictive biomarkers for conventional and targeted therapy, including patient clinical data andmulti-omicbiomarkers (genomic, transcriptomic and protein expression).Key examples, either clinically adopted or demonstrating promise for clinical translation, are highlighted. Following this, we provide an outline of potential barriers to predictive biomarker development; broadly discussing themes of approaches to translational research and study/trial design, and the impact of cellular and molecular tumor heterogeneity. Future avenues of research are also highlighted.

Background: Oropharyngeal cancer incidence is rapidly rising due to human papillomavirus (HPV) type 16 infection. The dearth of data on effectiveness of national female-only vaccination programs in preventing oral HPV infection and potential herd immunity in unvaccinated males has resulted in considerable controversy regarding the need to vaccinate males, especially in countries with high female vaccination coverage.Methods: Subjects aged 0–65 years undergoing tonsillectomy for nonmalignant indications were recruited in 6 hospitals in the United Kingdom. Oral samples were collected as follows: oral rinse, tongue base, and pharyngeal wall brushes, then tonsil tissue (tonsillectomy). Vaccination data were obtained from regional health authorities. All samples were centrally tested for HPV DNA by polymerase chain reaction.Results: Of 940 subjects, 243 females and 69 males were aged 12–24 years (median age, 18.6 years), with 189 (78%) females and no males vaccinated against HPV. Overall, oropharyngeal HPV-16 prevalence was significantly lower in vaccinated versus unvaccinated females (0.5% vs 5.6%, P = .04). In contrast, prevalence of any oropharyngeal HPV type was similar in vaccinated and unvaccinated females (19% vs 20%, P = .76). Oropharyngeal HPV-16 prevalence in unvaccinated males was similar to vaccinated females (0% vs 0.5%, P > .99), and lower than unvaccinated females (0% vs 5.6%, P = .08).Conclusions: Our findings indicate that the UK female-only vaccination program is associated with significant reductions in oropharyngeal HPV-16 infections. These are also the first data to suggest potential herd immunity from female-only vaccination against oropharyngeal HPV infection in contemporaneously aged males.

The proxy marker for human papillomavirus (HPV), p16, is included in the new AJCC 8th/UICC 8th staging system, but due to incongruence between p16 status and HPV infection, single biomarker evaluation could lead to misallocation of patients. We established nomograms for overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) and known HPV-DNA and p16 status, and validated the models in cohorts from high- and low-prevalent HPV countries. Consecutive OPSCC patients treated in Denmark, 2000–2014 formed the development cohort. The validation cohorts were from Sweden, Germany, and the United Kingdom. We developed nomograms by applying a backward-selection procedure for selection of variables, and assessed model performance. In the development cohort, 1313 patients, and in the validation cohorts, 344 German, 503 Swedish and 463 British patients were included. For the OS nomogram, age, gender, combined HPV-DNA and p16 status, smoking, T-, N-, and M-status and UICC-8 staging were selected, and for the PFS nomogram the same variables except UICC-8 staging. The nomograms performed well in discrimination and calibration. Our nomograms are reliable prognostic methods in patients with OPSCC. Combining HPV DNA and p16 is essential for correct prognostication. The nomograms are available at www.orograms.org.