With the rapid development of urbanization, more and more people are willing to improve their living conditions, thus substantial attention has been paid to residential renovation in China. As a result, large quantities of renovation waste are generated annually which seriously challenge sustainable urban development. To effectively manage renovation waste, accurate prediction of waste generation rates is a prerequisite. However, in the literature, few attempts have been made for predicting renovation waste as renovation activities vary significantly in different cases. This study offers an approach to estimate the amount of renovation waste based on the vacancy rate and renovation waste generation rates at a city level. The grey system theory was applied to predict the amount of renovation waste in Shenzhen. Results showed that the amount of renovation waste would reach 135,620 tons in 2023. The research findings can provide supportive information to relevant stakeholders for developing a renovation waste management framework.