Although the Netherlands has a long tradition of sea‐level research, no Holocene relative sea‐level curve is available for the north of the country. Previous studies hypothesized that the relative sea‐level reconstruction for the western Netherlands is also valid for the northern part of the country. However, glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models predict a lower and steeper relative sea‐level curve because of greater postglacial isostatic subsidence. Long‐term data of relative sea‐level change are important to inform GIA models and understand postglacial vertical land motion related to the rebound of Fennoscandia and neotectonic activity. We compiled and evaluated a set of basal peat radiocarbon dates to reconstruct the Holocene relative mean sea‐level rise in the Dutch Wadden Sea area. For the early Holocene, this reconstruction is lower than the western Netherlands curve. After 6400 cal a BP, the curve for the Wadden Sea is statistically indistinguishable from that for the western Netherlands, a result that conflicts with GIA model results. It remains to be investigated whether the problem lies with the GIA model predictions or with the quality of the available data. Additional basal peat radiocarbon dates from suitable sites should be collected to further resolve this problem.
16 December 2021 in Earth Surface Processes and Landforms
Geomorphological maps provide information on the relief, genesis and shape of the earth's surface and are widely used in sustainable spatial developments. The quality of geomorphological maps is however rarely assessed or reported, which limits their applicability. Moreover, older geomorphological maps often do not meet current quality requirements and require updating. This updating is time‐consuming and because of its qualitative nature difficult to reproduce, but can be supported by novel computational methods. In this paper, we address these issues by (1) quantifying the uncertainty associated with manual geomorphological mapping, (2) exploring the use of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for semi‐automated geomorphological mapping and (3) testing the sensitivity of CNNs to uncertainties in manually created evaluation data.We selected a test area in the Dutch push‐moraine district with a pronounced relief and a high variety of landforms. For this test area we developed five manually created geomorphological maps and 27 automatically created landform maps using CNNs. The resulting manual maps are similar on a regional level. We could identify the causes of disagreement between the maps on a local level, which often related to differences in mapping experience, choices in delineation and different interpretations of the legend. Coordination of mapping efforts and field validation are necessary to create accurate and precise maps. CNNs perform well in identifying landforms and geomorphological units, but fail at correct delineation. The human geomorphologist remains necessary to correct the delineation and classification of the computed maps. The uncertainty in the manually created data that are used to train and evaluate CNNs have a large effect on the model performance and evaluation. This also advocates for coordinated mapping efforts to ensure the quality of manually created training and test data. Further model development and data processing are required before CNNs can act as standalone mapping techniques.
1 September 2018 in Netherlands Journal of Geosciences
Rising sea levels due to climate change can have severe consequences for coastal populations and ecosystems all around the world. Understanding and projecting sea-level rise is especially important for low-lying countries such as the Netherlands. It is of specific interest for vulnerable ecological and morphodynamic regions, such as the Wadden Sea UNESCO World Heritage region.Here we provide an overview of sea-level projections for the 21st century for the Wadden Sea region and a condensed review of the scientific data, understanding and uncertainties underpinning the projections. The sea-level projections are formulated in the framework of the geological history of the Wadden Sea region and are based on the regional sea-level projections published in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5). These IPCC AR5 projections are compared against updates derived from more recent literature and evaluated for the Wadden Sea region. The projections are further put into perspective by including interannual variability based on long-term tide-gauge records from observing stations at Den Helder and Delfzijl.We consider three climate scenarios, following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), as defined in IPCC AR5: the RCP2.6 scenario assumes that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions decline after 2020; the RCP4.5 scenario assumes that GHG emissions peak at 2040 and decline thereafter; and the RCP8.5 scenario represents a continued rise of GHG emissions throughout the 21st century. For RCP8.5, we also evaluate several scenarios from recent literature where the mass loss in Antarctica accelerates at rates exceeding those presented in IPCC AR5.For the Dutch Wadden Sea, the IPCC AR5-based projected sea-level rise is 0.07±0.06m for the RCP4.5 scenario for the period 2018–30 (uncertainties representing 5–95%), with the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios projecting 0.01m less and more, respectively. The projected rates of sea-level change in 2030 range between 2.6mma−1for the 5th percentile of the RCP2.6 scenario to 9.1mma−1for the 95th percentile of the RCP8.5 scenario. For the period 2018–50, the differences between the scenarios increase, with projected changes of 0.16±0.12m for RCP2.6, 0.19±0.11m for RCP4.5 and 0.23±0.12m for RCP8.5. The accompanying rates of change range between 2.3 and 12.4mma−1in 2050. The differences between the scenarios amplify for the 2018–2100 period, with projected total changes of 0.41±0.25m for RCP2.6, 0.52±0.27m for RCP4.5 and 0.76±0.36m for RCP8.5. The projections for the RCP8.5 scenario are larger than the high-end projections presented in the 2008 Delta Commission Report (0.74m for 1990–2100) when the differences in time period are considered. The sea-level change rates range from 2.2 to 18.3mma−1for the year 2100.We also assess the effect of accelerated ice mass loss on the sea-level projections under the RCP8.5 scenario, as recent literature suggests that there may be a larger contribution from Antarctica than presented in IPCC AR5 (potentially exceeding 1m in 2100). Changes in episodic extreme events, such as storm surges, and periodic (tidal) contributions on (sub-)daily timescales, have not been included in these sea-level projections. However, the potential impacts of these processes on sea-level change rates have been assessed in the report.