We document the development and simulation characteristics of the next generation modeling system for seasonal to decadal prediction and projection at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). SPEAR (Seamless System for Prediction and EArth System Research) is built from component models recently developed at GFDL—the AM4 atmosphere model, MOM6 ocean code, LM4 land model, and SIS2 sea ice model. The SPEAR models are specifically designed with attributes needed for a prediction model for seasonal to decadal time scales, including the ability to run large ensembles of simulations with available computational resources. For computational speed SPEAR uses a coarse ocean resolution of approximately 1.0° (with tropical refinement). SPEAR can use differing atmospheric horizontal resolutions ranging from 1° to 0.25°. The higher atmospheric resolution facilitates improved simulation of regional climate and extremes. SPEAR is built from the same components as the GFDL CM4 and ESM4 models but with design choices geared toward seasonal to multidecadal physical climate prediction and projection. We document simulation characteristics for the time mean climate, aspects of internal variability, and the response to both idealized and realistic radiative forcing change. We describe in greater detail one focus of the model development process that was motivated by the importance of the Southern Ocean to the global climate system. We present sensitivity tests that document the influence of the Antarctic surface heat budget on Southern Ocean ventilation and deep global ocean circulation. These findings were also useful in the development processes for the GFDL CM4 and ESM4 models.

Drought is a devastating environmental constraint affecting the agronomic production of barley. To facilitate the breeding process, abundant germplasm resources and reliable evaluation systems to identify the true drought-tolerant barley genotypes are needed. In this study, 237 cultivated and 190 wild barley genotypes, originating from 28 countries, were screened for drought tolerance under the conditions of both water deficit and polyethylene glycol (PEG)-simulated drought at seedling stage. Drought stress significantly reduced the plant growth of all barley genotypes, but no significant difference in drought-induced reduction in the performance of barley seedlings was observed under these two drought conditions. Both cultivated and wild barley subspecies displayed considerable genotypic variability in drought tolerance, which underpinned the identification of 18 genotypes contrasting in drought tolerance. A comparative analysis of drought effects on biomass, water relation, photosynthesis, and osmotic adjustment was undertaken using these contrasting barley genotypes, in order to verify the reliability of the screening and to obtain the credible traits as screening criteria of drought tolerance in barley. As expected, the selected drought-tolerant genotypes showed much less reduction in shoot biomass than drought-sensitive ones under water deficit, which was significantly positively correlated with the results of large-scale screening, confirming the reliability of the screening for drought tolerance under two drought conditions in this study. Likewise, the traits of water relation, photosynthetic activity, and osmotic adjustment differed greatly between the contrasting genotypes under water deficit stress, and they were highly correlated to the growth of barley seedlings, suggesting the potential of them to be the selection criteria for drought tolerance. The analysis of the variable importance of these traits in drought tolerance indicated that sap osmolality and relative water content in the youngest fully-expanded leaf are the suitable selection criteria of screening for drought tolerance in barley at seedling stage.