How the ocean circulation changes in a warming climate is an important but poorly understood problem. Using a global ocean model, we decompose the problem into distinct responses to changes in sea surface temperature, salinity, and wind. Our results show that the surface warming effect, a robust feature of anthropogenic climate change, dominates and accelerates the upper ocean currents in 77% of the global ocean. Specifically, the increased vertical stratification intensifies the upper subtropical gyres and equatorial currents by shoaling these systems, while the differential warming between the Southern Ocean upwelling zone and the region to the north accelerates surface zonal currents in the Southern Ocean. In comparison, the wind stress and surface salinity changes affect regional current systems. Our study points a way forward for investigating ocean circulation change and evaluating the uncertainty.

This study describes characteristics of eddy (turbulent) heat and salt transports, in the basin‐scale circulation as well as in the embedded mesoscale eddy found in the South China Sea (SCS). We first showed the features of turbulent heat and salt transports in mesoscale eddies using sea level anomaly (SLA) data, in situ hydrographic data, and 375 Argo profiles. We found that the transports were horizontally variable due to asymmetric distributions of temperature and salinity anomalies and that they were vertically correlated with the thermocline and halocline depths in the eddies. An existing barrier layer caused the halocline and eddy salt transport to be relatively shallow. We then analyzed the transports in the basin‐scale circulation using an eddy diffusivity method and the sea surface height data, the Argo profiles, and the climatological hydrographic data. We found that relatively large poleward eddy heat transports occurred to the east of Vietnam (EOV) in summer and to the west of the Luzon Islands (WOL) in winter, while a large equatorward heat transport was located to the west of the Luzon Strait (WLS) in winter. The eddy salt transports were mostly similar to the heat transports but in the equatorward direction due to the fact that the mean salinity in the upper layer in the SCS tended to decrease toward the equator. Using a 2¹/₂‐layer reduced‐gravity model, we conducted a baroclinic instability study and showed that the baroclinic instability was critical to the seasonal variation of eddy kinetic energy (EKE) and thus the eddy transports. EOV, WLS, and WOL were regions with strong baroclinic instability, and, thus, with intensified eddy transports in the SCS. The combined effects of vertical velocity shear, latitude, and stratification determined the intensity of the baroclinic instability, which intensified the eddy transports EOV during summer and WLS and WOL during winter.