MEthane Remote LIdar missioN (MERLIN) is a German‐French space mission, scheduled for launch in 2024 and built around an innovative light detecting and ranging instrument that will retrieve methane atmospheric weighted columns. MERLIN products will be assimilated into chemistry transport models to infer methane emissions and sinks. Here the expected performance of MERLIN to reduce uncertainties on methane emissions is estimated. A first complete error budget of the mission is proposed based on an analysis of the plausible causes of random and systematic errors. Systematic errors are spatially and temporally distributed on geophysical variables and then aggregated into an ensemble of 32 scenarios. Observing System Simulation Experiments are conducted, originally carrying both random and systematic errors. Although relatively small (±2.9 ppb), systematic errors are found to have a larger influence on MERLIN performances than random errors. The expected global mean uncertainty reduction on methane emissions compared to the prior knowledge is found to be 32%, limited by the impact of systematic errors. The uncertainty reduction over land reaches 60% when the largest desert regions are removed. At the latitudinal scale, the largest uncertainty reductions are achieved for temperate regions (84%) and then tropics (56%) and high latitudes (53%). Similar Observing System Simulation Experiments based on error scenarios for Greenhouse Gases Observing SATellite reveal that MERLIN should perform better than Greenhouse Gases Observing SATellite for most continental regions. The integration of error scenarios for MERLIN in another inversion system suggests similar results, albeit more optimistic in terms of uncertainty reduction.

In the context of the FrenchGerman space lidar mission MERLIN (MEthane Remote LIdar missioN) dedicated to the determination of the atmospheric methane content, an end-to-end mission simulator is being developed. In order to check whether the instrument design meets the performance requirements, simulations have to count all the sources of noise on the measurements like the optical energy variability induced by speckle. Speckle is due to interference as the lidar beam is quasi monochromatic. Speckle contribution to the error budget has to be estimated but also simulated. In this paper, the speckle theory is revisited and applied to MERLIN lidar and also to the DLR (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft und Raumfahrt) demonstrator lidar CHARM-F. Results show: on the signal path, speckle noise depends mainly on the size of the illuminated area on ground; on the solar flux, speckle is fully negligible both because of the pixel size and the optical filter spectral width; on the energy monitoring path a decorrelation mechanism is needed to reduce speckle noise on averaged data. Speckle noises for MERLIN and CHARM-F can be simulated by Gaussian noises with only one random draw by shot separately for energy monitoring and signal paths.

In the context of MERLIN (MEthane Remote LIdar missioN), a French–German spatial lidar mission dedicated to monitoring the atmospheric methane content, two software programs have been developed: LIDSIM (LIDar SIMulator) and PROLID (PROcessor LIDar). The objectives are to assess whether the instrument design meets the performance requirements and to study the sensitivity of this performance to geophysical parameters. LIDSIM is an end-to-end mission simulator and PROLID is a retrieval processor that provides mole fractions of methane in dry air, averaged over an atmospheric column. These two tools are described in this paper. Results of the validation tests and the first full orbit simulations are reported. Merlin target performance does not seem to be reachable but breakthrough performance is reached.

MERLIN (MEthane Remote sensing LIdar missioN) is a Franco-German space mission designed to provide weighted columns of atmospheric methane through an inversion of the lidar signal using a priori information on the atmospheric state. Uncertainties about the meteorological parameters of the observed scene used in the ground segment contribute to the error budget on the retrieved methane column. With the LIDSIM (LIDar SIMulator) data simulator and the PROLID (PROcessor LIDar) inversion processor developed for MERLIN, we perform an impact experiment using ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Weather Range Forecast) ensemble forecast data. In addition, we estimate the standard deviation of the error in the methane column due to the meteorological uncertainties to be about 0.6 ppb. In addition, we innovate by discussing the impact of interpolations both in time and space, focusing on vertical extrapolations under the topography by using state-of-the-art methods to determine from the scatter between these methods the range in which the actual profile should be. We conclude that, in areas where the topography variations exceed 10 m over 10 km, an additional random error of 0.1 ppb is due to our lack of knowledge of the adjustment of atmospheric profiles to terrain. Finally, we point out that further work needs to be performed on temporal interpolation. Indeed, the 3 h time interpolation of atmospheric tides can create regional biases of up to 2 ppm (which is a major problem for models trying to identify methane sinks and sources).

In the context of the French-German space lidar mission MERLIN dedicated to the determination of the atmospheric methane content, an end-to-end mission simulator is being developed. In order to check whether the instrument design meets the performance requirements, simulations have to count all the sources of noise on the measurements like the optical energy variability induced by speckle. Speckle is due to interference as the lidar beam are quasi monochromatic. Speckle contribution to the error budget has to be estimated but also simulated. In this paper, the speckle theory is revisited and applied to MERLIN double pulsed IPDA lidar and also to the DLR demonstrator CHARM-F. Results show: on the signal path, speckle noise depends mainly on the size of the illuminating area on ground; on the solar flux, speckle is fully negligible both because the pixel size and the optical filter spectral width; on energy monitoring path a decorrelation mechanism is needed to reduce speckle noise on averaged data. Speckle noises for MERLIN and CHARM-F can be simulated by Gaussian noises with only one random draw by shot separately for energy monitoring and signal paths.

To assess the accuracy of satellite monitoring of anthropogenic ${\mathrm{CO}}_2$ emissions, inversions of satellite data in SWIR are usually combined with the assimilation of the total ${\mathrm{CO}}_2$ column into a Kalman filter that reconstructs the sources and sinks of atmospheric ${\mathrm{CO}}_2$. To provide error estimates of the total ${\mathrm{CO}}_2$ column for multi-month assimilation experiments of simulated satellite data, we parametrise these errors using linear regressions. These regression are obtained from a database that links meteorological situations, albedos, and aerosols to the errors in the inversion of the total ${\mathrm{CO}}_2$ column based on simulated satellite data for those conditions. The errors in this database are explicitly computed using the Bayesian estimation formalism, and the linear regressions are optimised by selecting appropriate predictors and predictants. For different levels of measurement noise, error simulations are performed over a period of several months using the albedo and aerosol data from MODIS.