The legacy of Tohoku-oki: Ten years ago, the magnitude 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake rocked Japan and caused massive damage. The earthquake also generated a destructive tsunami, the impacts of which are still being managed today. Kodaira et al. review what was learned from the tremendous number of observations from the great earthquake that unexpectedly ruptured into a shallow part of the megathrust fault. Postseismic deformation is ongoing, as is the risk of another very large normal fault earthquake seaward of the Japan Trench. Science , this issue p. eabe1169

On 15 January 2022, an eruption of Hunga volcano generated an air-coupled tsunami that propagated across the Pacific Ocean. The tsunami reached Japan approximately 7 hr after the eruption and was recorded by coastal and offshore stations. We conducted a retroactive study of tsunami early warning using a data assimilation approach. We assimilated water pressure records of 44 offshore bottom pressure gauges (OBPGs) off the Japanese Islands after the volcanic eruption and forecasted tsunamis on the Shikoku Island and the Kii peninsula. The tsunami waveforms at 12 points of interest (i.e., coastal and near-coast stations) were predicted using a data assimilation approach at 15:00 (UTC) with forecast accuracy of 97%. Moreover, we discussed the effects of air-pressure variations generated by the volcanic eruption. The results showed that air-pressure variations had negligible effect on the assimilation results. This is the first time that data assimilation approach was applied to a nonseismic tsunami event for early warning. Our study indicates that data assimilation approach plays an important role in tsunami hazard mitigation. Early warnings of nonseismogenic tsunamis can be successfully achieved by assimilating offshore water pressure records of OBPGs.

On 8 October 2023 (UTC), unique earthquakes occurred in the Izu‐Ogasawara Arc, Japan, in which the P‐ and S‐phases were barely visible and only the T‐phases were evident, followed by tsunamis that reached islands in the Izu‐Ogasawara Arc and a wide area of the Pacific coast of southwest Japan. Our estimated T‐phase source area coincides with the Sofu Seamount, which was previously unrecognized as an active submarine volcano. A bathymetric survey of the seamount conducted 1 month after the event revealed characteristics of the seamount with a caldera and a central cone. Compared to the bathymetry in 1987, the topography in the caldera had changed significantly such as a crater forming in the central cone. This seamount is likely to be an active volcano. The topographic changes on the caldera‐sized scale that occurred at the caldera can be explained as a source of the October tsunami.

Business continuity plans (BCPs) can be effective and proactive countermeasures to respond flexibly to crises caused by unexpected natural disasters such as large tsunamis. BCP guidelines for fisheries are being issued by the Fisheries Agency (Japan) and the utilization of such BCPs has been spreading in Japan. Despite the need to promote the social implementation of BCPs in the fisheries industry, there is a lack of quantitative criteria for the tsunami damage threshold of various fishing ports and facilities. In this research, we surveyed the damage to the fishing facilities from the tsunami generated by the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake. Data were collected on the tsunami damage for various fishery facilities and used to establish criteria for tsunami damage thresholds. In addition, tsunami damage inferred from 1506 scenarios of tsunami computations was predicted probabilistically for a model region as the Nachi Katsu’ura Fishery Port in Wakayama Prefecture. The method we developed in this research makes it possible to assess the probabilistic tsunami damage by combining a tsunami hazard assessment method with criteria for damage occurrence for fishery port facilities and equipment.

Researchers have developed tsunami inundation models based on nonlinear shallow water equations to estimate tsunami propagation and inundation. However, their empirical results are not in perfect agreement with those of other research institutes, even though the same governing equations are used. Therefore, we quantitatively evaluated the variability of tsunami simulations in this study. Several research institutes have conducted tsunami simulations under the same input conditions using tsunami inundation models adopted for tsunami hazard assessment, resulting in a certain degree of variability among them. By examining the spatial and temporal differences in various physical quantities, we identified the characteristic topography where the variability between tsunami simulations increases. A novel method for calculating statistics from the area integrals of physical quantities was proposed to demonstrate the variability in the overall simulation results. In addition, the effects of different setting parameters and computational environments on the simulation results of a single model were evaluated. The findings of this study are expected to not only serve as a basis to verify the reliability of source codes employed by users of the tsunami inundation model, but also contribute useful technical information to advance probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment in the future.