Domestic Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs) are used in the UK to provide energy efficiency ratings for use in policy and investment decisions on individual dwellings and at a stock level. There is evidence that the process of creating an EPC introduces measurement error such that repeat assessments of the same property give different ratings, compromising their reliability. This study presents a novel error analysis to estimate the size of this effect, using repeated EPC assessments of 1.6 million existing dwellings in England and Wales. A statistical model of how measurement error contributes to variation between repeated measurements is set out, and exploratory data analysis is used to decide how to apply this model to the available data. The results predict that the one standard deviation measurement error decreases with EPC rating, from around ± 8.0 EPC points on a rating of 35 to ±2.4 on a rating of 85. This predicted error is higher than the limit recommended in UK guidance except in very efficient buildings; it can also result in dwellings being rated in the wrong EPC band, for example it was estimated that 24% of band D homes are rated as band C.

Shifting from heating using fossil fuel combustion to electrified heating, dominated by heat pumps, is central to many countries’ decarbonisation strategy. The consequent increase in electricity demand, combined with that from electric vehicles, and the shift from non-renewable to renewable generation requires increased demand flexibility to support system operation. Demand side response through interrupting heating during peak demands has been widely proposed and simulation modelling has been used to determine the technical potential. This paper proposes an empirical approach to quantifying a building’s potential to operate flexibly, presenting a metric based on measured temperature drop in a dwelling under standard conditions after heating is switched off, using smart meter and internal temperature data. A result was derived for 96% of 193 homes within a test dataset, mean temperature drop of 1.5 °C in 3 h at 15 °C inside-outside temperature differential. An empirical flexibility metric may support decision making and decarbonisation. For households it may support the transition to heat pumps, enabling time of use costs and tariffs to be better understood and system to be specified by installers. Electricity system stakeholders, such as aggregators and DNOs may use it to identify the potential for demand response, managing local networks, infrastructure and aggregation.

Widespread adoption of residential heat pumps is predicted to create challenges for national and local electricity systems. Flexible operation of heat pumps could help smooth peak demand and better utilise renewables. Achieving these benefits involves many stakeholders from the heat pump and electricity sectors with different perspectives and expectations. This work brought together 52 experts from different parts of the UK system to discuss and debate the role of heat pump flexibility in a decarbonised electricity system in 2035. A co-production research model was adopted, designed to integrate diverse forms of knowledge and perspectives in the co-production of knowledge on heat pump flexibility. A series of participatory activities were undertaken including a one-day workshop. Elements of a common vision emerged, such as the anticipated widespread flexible operation of heat pumps as the cheapest way of running a heat pump and the likelihood of a highly automated and remote-controlled manner of operation. Disagreements and unknowns also emerged. This work aims to support stakeholders in planning for the social, technical and economic aspects of flexible heat pump operation in their own organisations.