Background.: The purpose of this study was to determine the optimal definition and elucidate the predictive factors of early recurrence after surgery for colorectal liver metastases (CRLM). Methods.: Among 987 patients who underwent curative surgery for CRLM from 1990 to 2012, 846 with a minimum follow-up period of 24 months were eligible for this study. The minimum p value approach of survival after initial recurrence was used to determine the optimal cutoff for the definition of early recurrence. The predictive factors of early recurrence and prognostic factors of survival were analyzed. Results.: For 667 patients (79%) who developed recurrence, the optimal cutoff point of early recurrence was determined to be 8 months after surgery. The impact of early recurrence on survival was demonstrated mainly in patients who received preoperative chemotherapy. Among the 691 patients who received preoperative chemotherapy, recurrence was observed in 562 (81%), and survival in patients with early recurrence was significantly worse than in those with late recurrence (5-year survival 18.5% vs. 53.4%, p < .0001). Multivariate logistic analysis identified age ≤57 years (p = .0022), >1 chemotherapy line (p = .03), disease progression during last-line chemotherapy (p = .024), >3 tumors (p = .0014), and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 >60 U/mL (p = .0003) as independent predictors of early recurrence. Salvage surgery for recurrence significantly improved survival, even in patients with early recurrence. Conclusion.: The optimal cutoff point of early recurrence was determined to be 8 months. The preoperative prediction of early recurrence is possible and crucial for designing effective perioperative chemotherapy regimens.

Objectives: To analyze long-term oncological outcome along with prognostic risk factors in a large cohort of patients with colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) undergoing ALPPS. Background: ALPPS is a two-stage hepatectomy variant that increases resection rates and R0 resection rates in patients with primarily unresectable CRLM as evidenced in a recent randomized controlled trial. Long-term oncologic results, however, are lacking. Methods: Cases in- and outside the International ALPPS Registry were collected and completed by direct contacts to ALPPS centers to secure a comprehensive cohort. Overall, cancer-specific (CSS), and recurrence-free (RFS) survivals were analyzed along with independent risk factors using Cox-regression analysis. Results: The cohort included 510 patients from 22 ALPPS centers over a 10-year period. Ninety-day mortality was 4.9% and median overall survival, CSS, and RFS were 39, 42, and 15 months, respectively. The median follow-up time was 38 months (95% confidence interval 32–43 months). Multivariate analysis identified tumor-characteristics (primary T4, right colon), biological features (K/N-RAS status), and response to chemotherapy (Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors) as independent predictors of CSS. Traditional factors such as size of metastases, uni versus bilobar involvement, and liver-first approach were not predictive. When hepatic recurrences after ALPPS was amenable to surgical/ablative treatment, median CSS was significantly superior compared to chemotherapy alone (56 vs 30 months, P < 0.001). Conclusions: This large cohort provides the first evidence that patients with primarily unresectable CRLM treated by ALPPS have not only low perioperative mortality, but achieve appealing long-term oncologic outcome especially those with favorable tumor biology and good response to chemotherapy.