Time series models can play an important role in disease prediction. Incidence data can be used to predict the future occurrence of disease events. Developments in modeling approaches provide an opportunity to compare different time series models for predictive power. We applied ARIMA and Random Forest time series models to incidence data of outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) in Egypt, available through the online EMPRES-I system. We found that the Random Forest model outperformed the ARIMA model in predictive ability. Furthermore, we found that the Random Forest model is effective for predicting outbreaks of H5N1 in Egypt. Random Forest time series modeling provides enhanced predictive ability over existing time series models for the prediction of infectious disease outbreaks. This result, along with those showing the concordance between bird and human outbreaks (Rabinowitz et al. 2012), provides a new approach to predicting these dangerous outbreaks in bird populations based on existing, freely available data. Our analysis uncovers the time-series structure of outbreak severity for highly pathogenic avain influenza (H5N1) in Egypt.

Introduction Prescription medication overdose is the fastest growing drug-related problem in the USA. The growing nature of this problem necessitates the implementation of improved monitoring strategies for investigating the prevalence and patterns of abuse of specific medications. Objectives Our primary aims were to assess the possibility of utilizing social media as a resource for automatic monitoring of prescription medication abuse and to devise an automatic classification technique that can identify potentially abuse-indicating user posts. Methods We collected Twitter user posts (tweets) associated with three commonly abused medications (Adderall^®, oxycodone, and quetiapine). We manually annotated 6400 tweets mentioning these three medications and a control medication (metformin) that is not the subject of abuse due to its mechanism of action. We performed quantitative and qualitative analyses of the annotated data to determine whether posts on Twitter contain signals of prescription medication abuse. Finally, we designed an automatic supervised classification technique to distinguish posts containing signals of medication abuse from those that do not and assessed the utility of Twitter in investigating patterns of abuse over time. Results Our analyses show that clear signals of medication abuse can be drawn from Twitter posts and the percentage of tweets containing abuse signals are significantly higher for the three case medications (Adderall^®: 23 %, quetiapine: 5.0 %, oxycodone: 12 %) than the proportion for the control medication (metformin: 0.3 %). Our automatic classification approach achieves 82 % accuracy overall (medication abuse class recall: 0.51, precision: 0.41, F measure: 0.46). To illustrate the utility of automatic classification, we show how the classification data can be used to analyze abuse patterns over time. Conclusion Our study indicates that social media can be a crucial resource for obtaining abuse-related information for medications, and that automatic approaches involving supervised classification and natural language processing hold promises for essential future monitoring and intervention tasks.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) likely emerged from a zoonotic spill-over event and has led to a global pandemic. The public health response has been predominantly informed by surveillance of symptomatic individuals and contact tracing, with quarantine, and other preventive measures have then been applied to mitigate further spread. Non-traditional methods of surveillance such as genomic epidemiology and wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) have also been leveraged during this pandemic. Genomic epidemiology uses high-throughput sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 genomes to inform local and international transmission events, as well as the diversity of circulating variants. WBE uses wastewater to analyse community spread, as it is known that SARS-CoV-2 is shed through bodily excretions. Since both symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals contribute to wastewater inputs, we hypothesized that the resultant pooled sample of population-wide excreta can provide a more comprehensive picture of SARS-CoV-2 genomic diversity circulating in a community than clinical testing and sequencing alone. In this study, we analysed 91 wastewater samples from 11 states in the USA, where the majority of samples represent Maricopa County, Arizona (USA). With the objective of assessing the viral diversity at a population scale, we undertook a single-nucleotide variant (SNV) analysis on data from 52 samples with >90% SARS-CoV-2 genome coverage of sequence reads, and compared these SNVs with those detected in genomes sequenced from clinical patients. We identified 7973 SNVs, of which 548 were “novel” SNVs that had not yet been identified in the global clinical-derived data as of 17^th June 2020 (the day after our last wastewater sampling date). However, between 17^th of June 2020 and 20^th November 2020, almost half of the novel SNVs have since been detected in clinical-derived data. Using the combination of SNVs present in each sample, we identified the more probable lineages present in that sample and compared them to lineages observed in North America prior to our sampling dates. The wastewater-derived SARS-CoV-2 sequence data indicates there were more lineages circulating across the sampled communities than represented in the clinical-derived data. Principal coordinate analyses identified patterns in population structure based on genetic variation within the sequenced samples, with clear trends associated with increased diversity likely due to a higher number of infected individuals relative to the sampling dates. We demonstrate that genetic correlation analysis combined with SNVs analysis using wastewater sampling can provide a comprehensive snapshot of the SARS-CoV-2 genetic population structure circulating within a community, which might not be observed if relying solely on clinical cases.

Background Open-source clinical natural-language-processing (NLP) systems have lowered the barrier to the development of effective clinical document c