Reliable solar radiation data are important for energy simulations in buildings and solar energy systems. Although direct normal irradiance (DNI) is required for simulations, in addition to global horizontal irradiance (GHI), a lack of DNI measurement data is quite often due to high cost and maintenance. Solar radiation models are widely used in order to overcome the limitation, but only a few studies have been devoted to solar radiation data and modeling in Korea. This study investigates the most suitable solar radiation model that converts GHI into DNI for Korea, using measurement data of the city of Daejeon from 2007 to 2009. After ten existing models were evaluated, the Reindl-2 model was selected as the best. A new model was developed for further improvement, and it substantially decreased estimation errors compared to the ten investigated models. The new model was also evaluated for nine major cities other than Daejeon from the standpoint of typical meteorological year (TMY) data, and consistent evaluation results confirmed that the new model is reliably applicable across Korea.

Solar energy does not always follow the normal distribution due to the characteristics of natural energy. The system advisor model (SAM), a well-known energy performance analysis program, analyzes exceedance probabilities by dividing solar irradiance into two cases, i.e., when normal distribution is followed, and when normal distribution is not followed. However, it does not provide a mathematical model for data distribution when not following the normal distribution. The present study applied the skew-normal distribution when solar irradiance does not follow the normal distribution, and calculated photovoltaic power potential to compare the result with those using the two existing methods. It determined which distribution was more appropriate between normal and skew-normal distributions using the Jarque–Bera test, and then the corrected Akaike information criterion (AICc). As a result, three places in Korea showed that the skew-normal distribution was more appropriate than the normal distribution during the summer and winter seasons. The AICc relative likelihood between two models was more than 0.3, which showed that the difference between the two models was not extremely high. However, considering that the proportion of uncertainty of solar irradiance in photovoltaic projects was 5% to 17%, more accurate models need to be chosen.