Studies of the global sea-level budget (SLB) and the global ocean-mass budget (OMB) are essential to assess the reliability of our knowledge of sea-level change and its contributors. Here we present datasets for times series of the SLB and OMB elements developed in the framework of ESA's Climate Change Initiative. We use these datasets to assess the SLB and the OMB simultaneously, utilising a consistent framework of uncertainty characterisation. The time series, given at monthly sampling and available at https://doi.org/10.5285/17c2ce31784048de93996275ee976fff (Horwath et al., 2021), include global mean sea-level (GMSL) anomalies from satellite altimetry, the global mean steric component from Argo drifter data with incorporation of sea surface temperature data, the ocean-mass component from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite gravimetry, the contribution from global glacier mass changes assessed by a global glacier model, the contribution from Greenland Ice Sheet and Antarctic Ice Sheet mass changes assessed by satellite radar altimetry and by GRACE, and the contribution from land water storage anomalies assessed by the global hydrological model WaterGAP (Water Global Assessment and Prognosis). Over the period January 1993–December 2016 (P1, covered by the satellite altimetry records), the mean rate (linear trend) of GMSL is 3.05 ± 0.24 mm yr⁻¹. The steric component is 1.15 ± 0.12 mm yr⁻¹ (38 % of the GMSL trend), and the mass component is 1.75 ± 0.12 mm yr⁻¹ (57 %). The mass component includes 0.64 ± 0.03 mm yr⁻¹ (21 % of the GMSL trend) from glaciers outside Greenland and Antarctica, 0.60 ± 0.04 mm yr⁻¹ (20 %) from Greenland, 0.19 ± 0.04 mm yr⁻¹ (6 %) from Antarctica, and 0.32 ± 0.10 mm yr⁻¹ (10 %) from changes of land water storage. In the period January 2003–August 2016 (P2, covered by GRACE and the Argo drifter system), GMSL rise is higher than in P1 at 3.64 ± 0.26 mm yr⁻¹. This is due to an increase of the mass contributions, now about 2.40 ± 0.13 mm yr⁻¹ (66 % of the GMSL trend), with the largest increase contributed from Greenland, while the steric contribution remained similar at 1.19 ± 0.17 mm yr⁻¹ (now 33 %). The SLB of linear trends is closed for P1 and P2; that is, the GMSL trend agrees with the sum of the steric and mass components within their combined uncertainties. The OMB, which can be evaluated only for P2, shows that our preferred GRACE-based estimate of the ocean-mass trend agrees with the sum of mass contributions within 1.5 times or 0.8 times the combined 1σ uncertainties, depending on the way of assessing the mass contributions. Combined uncertainties (1σ) of the elements involved in the budgets are between 0.29 and 0.42 mm yr⁻¹, on the order of 10 % of GMSL rise. Interannual variations that overlie the long-term trends are coherently represented by the elements of the SLB and the OMB. Even at the level of monthly anomalies the budgets are closed within uncertainties, while also indicating possible origins of remaining misclosures.

The Arctic climate system is rapidly transitioning into a new regime with a reduction in the extent of sea ice, enhanced mixing in the ocean and atmosphere, and thus enhanced coupling within the ocean–ice–atmosphere system; these physical changes are leading to ecosystem changes in the Arctic Ocean. In this review paper, we assess one of the critically important aspects of this new regime, the variability of Arctic freshwater, which plays a fundamental role in the Arctic climate system by impacting ocean stratification and sea ice formation or melt. Liquid and solid freshwater exports also affect the global climate system, notably by impacting the global ocean overturning circulation. We assess how freshwater budgets have changed relative to the 2000–2010 period. We include discussions of processes such as poleward atmospheric moisture transport, runoff from the Greenland Ice Sheet and Arctic glaciers, the role of snow on sea ice, and vertical redistribution. Notably, sea ice cover has become more seasonal and more mobile; the mass loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet increased in the 2010s (particularly in the western, northern, and southern regions) and imported warm, salty Atlantic waters have shoaled. During 2000–2010, the Arctic Oscillation and moisture transport into the Arctic are in-phase and have a positive trend. This cyclonic atmospheric circulation pattern forces reduced freshwater content on the Atlantic–Eurasian side of the Arctic Ocean and freshwater gains in the Beaufort Gyre. We show that the trend in Arctic freshwater content in the 2010s has stabilized relative to the 2000s, potentially due to an increased compensation between a freshening of the Beaufort Gyre and a reduction in freshwater in the rest of the Arctic Ocean. However, large inter-model spread across the ocean reanalyses and uncertainty in the observations used in this study prevent a definitive conclusion about the degree of this compensation.

Atlantic Water (AW) transported from the Nordic Seas is the major source of oceanic heat to the Arctic Ocean. Based on results from the TOPAZ reanalysis, a regional coupled ice‐ocean data assimilation system, we show that interannual variability of AW temperature in the Fram Strait (FS) is associated with the strength of the Greenland Sea gyre (GSG) circulation. The response of the GSG to the anomalous wind stress curl over the Nordic Seas modifies the AW inflow and thus influences the variability of AW temperature in the FS. A stronger (weaker) GSG circulation increases (decreases) the AW flow speed toward FS, leading to increased (decreased) oceanic heat content and higher (lower) AW temperature therein. This implies that the Nordic Seas circulation is not only a passive conduit of AW, but its response to overlying atmospheric variability can also largely influence the AW temperature in the FS by modifying the transport of AW.

Recently two gridded sea surface salinity (SSS) products that cover the Arctic Ocean have been derived from the European Space Agency (ESA)'s Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission: one developed by the Barcelona Expert Centre (BEC) and the other developed by the Ocean Salinity Expertise Center of the Centre Aval de Traitement des Données SMOS at IFREMER (The French Research Institute for Exploitation of the Sea) (CEC). The uncertainties of these two SSS products are quantified during the period of 2011–2013 against other SSS products: one data assimilative regional reanalysis; one data-driven reprocessing in the framework of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Services (CMEMS); two climatologies – the 2013 World Ocean Atlas (WOA) and the Polar science center Hydrographic Climatology (PHC); and in situ datasets, both assimilated and independent. The CMEMS reanalysis comes from the TOPAZ4 system, which assimilates a large set of ocean and sea-ice observations using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). Another CMEMS product is the Multi-OBservations reprocessing (MOB), a multivariate objective analysis combining in situ data with satellite SSS. The monthly root mean squared deviations (RMSD) of both SMOS products, compared to the TOPAZ4 reanalysis, reach 1.5 psu in the Arctic summer, while in the winter months the BEC SSS is closer to TOPAZ4 with a deviation of 0.5 psu. The comparison of CEC satellite SSS against in situ data shows Atlantic Water that is too fresh in the Barents Sea, the Nordic Seas, and in the northern North Atlantic Ocean, consistent with the abnormally fresh deviations from TOPAZ4. When compared to independent in situ data in the Beaufort Sea, the BEC product shows the smallest bias (< 0.1 psu) in summer and the smallest RMSD (1.8 psu). The results also show that all six SSS products share a common challenge: representing freshwater masses (< 24 psu) in the central Arctic. Along the Norwegian coast and at the southwestern coast of Greenland, the BEC SSS shows smaller errors than TOPAZ4 and indicates the potential value of assimilating the satellite-derived salinity in this system.