A new block maintenance mechanism, the selective absorption mechanism (SAM), is proposed. According to this mechanism, which is based on vortex–vortex interactions (i.e., the interactions between a blocking anticyclone and synoptic eddies with the same polarity), a blocking anticyclone actively and selectively absorbs synoptic anticyclones (strictly, air parcels with low potential vorticity). The blocking anticyclone, which is thus supplied with low potential vorticity of the synoptic anticyclones, can subsist for a prolonged period, withstanding dissipation. The SAM was verified in a case study through trajectory analysis. Ten actual cases of blocking were examined. Trajectories were calculated by tracing parcels originating from synoptic anticyclones and cyclones located upstream of the blocking. Parcels starting from anticyclones were attracted to and absorbed by the blocking anticyclone, whereas parcels from cyclones were repelled by the blocking anticyclone and attracted to the blocking cyclone, if one was present. The results show that the SAM is effective in the maintenance of observed cases of blocking. In addition, the uniqueness and distinction of the SAM from other previously proposed maintenance mechanisms are discussed.

The impact of Arctic radiosonde observations on the forecasting of the 2012 early August Arctic cyclone AC12—the “strongest” since records began—has been investigated using an observing system experiment (OSE). An atmospheric ensemble reanalysis (ALERA2) was used as the control experiment (CTL) to reproduce the development of the Arctic cyclone and surrounding large‐scale atmospheric fields. The OSE applies the same reanalysis as the CTL except for the exclusion of radiosonde observations from the German icebreaker Polarstern, which cruised near Svalbard during mid‐July to early August 2012. Comparison of the two reanalyses revealed a difference in the upper tropospheric circulation over northern mid‐Eurasia, just before the Arctic cyclone developed, in the form of a stronger tropopause polar vortex in the CTL. This indicated that the upper tropospheric field in the CTL had greater potential for baroclinic instability over mid‐Eurasia. Ensemble predictions were then conducted using the two reanalyses as initial values at which the tropopause polar vortex approached northern mid‐Eurasia. The CTL prediction reproduced the formation of the Arctic cyclone, but the OSE shows a significantly weaker one. These results indicate that the improved reproduction of upper tropospheric circulation in the Arctic region due to additional radiosonde observations from a mobile platform was indispensable for the prediction of AC12. In particular, observations being acquired far from the Arctic cyclone affect the prediction of the cyclone via the upper tropospheric circulation in the atmospheric west wind drift.

Recent cold winter extremes over Eurasia and North America have been considered to be a consequence of a warming Arctic. More accurate weather forecasts are required to reduce human and socioeconomic damages associated with severe winters. However, the sparse observing network over the Arctic brings errors in initializing a weather prediction model, which might impact accuracy of prediction results at midlatitudes. Here we show that additional Arctic radiosonde observations from the Norwegian young sea ICE expedition (N-ICE2015) drifting ice camps and existing land stations during winter improved forecast skill and reduced uncertainties of weather extremes at midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. For two winter storms over East Asia and North America in February 2015, ensemble forecast experiments were performed with initial conditions taken from an ensemble atmospheric reanalysis in which the observation data were assimilated. The observations reduced errors in initial conditions in the upper troposphere over the Arctic region, yielding more precise prediction of the locations and strengths of upper troughs and surface synoptic disturbances. Errors and uncertainties of predicted upper troughs at midlatitudes would be brought with upper level high potential vorticity (PV) intruding southward from the observed Arctic region. This is because the PV contained a “signal” of the additional Arctic observations as it moved along an isentropic surface. This suggests that a coordinated sustainable Arctic observing network would be effective not only for regional weather services but also for reducing weather risks in locations distant from the Arctic.

This study investigated the impact of radiosonde observations from the Southern Ocean obtained by the Australian R/V Aurora Australis on the ALERA2 experimental ensemble reanalysis data set and ensemble forecast experiment. An observing system experiment (OSE) that included additional ship‐launched radiosonde data captured the atmospheric structure over the Southern Ocean. ALERA2 without additional radiosondes had positive temperature biases exceeding 7 °C in the upper troposphere when low‐pressure cyclonic systems passed over the ship. The spread in the upper level was reduced by 15% in the OSE, which propagated downstream from the ship's position because of the sparse observing network over southern high latitudes. Comparison of two 63‐member ensemble forecast experiments initialized by ALERA2 and the OSE revealed that prediction of midlatitude cyclone tracks was improved by the realistic representation of upper‐level troughs in the OSE forecast. This confirms that additional radiosondes over the Southern Ocean reduce uncertainty and error in midlatitude cyclone forecasts.

The authors obtain a new equation to estimate the forward component of a photon dose generated through the interaction between a target and a short pulse high power laser. As the equation is quite simple, it is useful for calculating the photon dose. The equation shows that the photon dose is proportional to the electron temperature in the range >3 MeV and proportional to the square of the electron temperature in the range <3 MeV. The dose estimated with this method is roughly consistent with the result of Monte Carlo simulation. With some assumptions and corrections, it can reproduce experimental results obtained and the dose result calculated at other laboratories.

The selective absorption mechanism (SAM), newly proposed in Part I of this study on the maintenance mechanism of blocking, is verified through numerical experiments. The experiments were based on the nonlinear equivalent-barotropic potential vorticity equation, with varying conditions with respect to the shape and amplitude of blocking, and characteristics of storm tracks (displacement and strength) and background zonal flow. The experiments indicate that the SAM effectively maintains blocking, irrespective of the above conditions. At first, by applying a channel model on a β plane, numerical experiments were conducted using a uniform background westerly with and without a jet. The results show that the presence of a jet promotes the effectiveness of the SAM. Then, two types of spherical model experiments were also performed. In idealized experiments, the SAM was as effective as the β-plane model in explaining the maintenance of blocking. Moreover, experiments performed under realistic meteorological conditions showed that the SAM maintained a real block, demonstrating that the SAM is effective. These results, and the case study in Part I, verify that the SAM is the effective general maintenance mechanism for blocking.