Historically, mpox has been characterized as an endemic zoonotic disease that transmits through contact with the reservoir rodent host in West and Central Africa. However, in May 2022, human cases of mpox were detected spreading internationally beyond countries with known endemic reservoirs. When the first cases from 2022 were sequenced, they shared 42 nucleotide differences from the closest mpox virus (MPXV) previously sampled. Nearly all these mutations are characteristic of the action of APOBEC3 deaminases, host enzymes with antiviral function. Assuming APOBEC3 editing is characteristic of human MPXV infection, we developed a dual-process phylogenetic molecular clock that—inferring a rate of ~6 APOBEC3 mutations per year—estimates that MPXV has been circulating in humans since 2016. These observations of sustained MPXV transmission present a fundamental shift to the perceived paradigm of MPXV epidemiology as a zoonosis and highlight the need for revising public health messaging around MPXV as well as outbreak management and control.

The SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant (B.1.617.2), first detected in India, has rapidly become the dominant variant in England. Early reports suggest this variant has an increased growth rate suggesting increased transmissibility. This study indirectly assessed differences in transmissibility between the emergent Delta variant compared to the previously dominant Alpha variant (B.1.1.7). A matched case-control study was conducted to estimate the odds of household transmission (≥ 2 cases within 14 days) for Delta variant index cases compared with Alpha cases. Cases were derived from national surveillance data (March to June 2021). One-to-two matching was undertaken on geographical location of residence, time period of testing and property type, and a multivariable conditional logistic regression model was used for analysis. In total 5,976 genomically sequenced index cases in household clusters were matched to 11,952 sporadic index cases (single case within a household). 43.3% (n=2,586) of cases in household clusters were confirmed Delta variant compared to 40.4% (n= 4,824) of sporadic cases. The odds ratio of household transmission was 1.70 among Delta variant cases (95% CI 1.48-1.95, p <0.001) compared to Alpha cases after adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity, index of multiple deprivation (IMD), number of household contacts and vaccination status of index case. We found evidence of increased household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant, potentially explaining its success at displacing Alpha variant as the dominant strain in England. With the Delta variant now having been detected in many countries worldwide, the understanding of the transmissibility of this variant is important for informing infection prevention and control policies internationally.

Despite its inclusion in pneumococcal conjugate vaccine 13 (PCV13), Streptococcus pneumoniae serotype 3 remains a major cause of invasive pneumococcal disease in England and Wales. Previous studies have indicated that there are distinct lineages within serotype 3 clonal complex 180 and the clade distributions have shifted in recent years with the emergence of clade II. We undertook whole genome sequencing and genomic analysis of 616 serotype 3 isolates from England and Wales between 2003 and 2018, including invasive and carriage isolates. Our investigations showed that clade II has expanded since 2014 and now represents 50% of serotype 3 invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) isolates in England and Wales. Genomic analysis of antibiotic resistance and protein antigen genes showed that distinct profiles are present within the clades which could account for the recent emergence of this clade. This investigation highlights the importance and utility of routine whole genome sequencing and its ability to identify new and emerging variation at the single nucleotide level which informs surveillance and will impact future vaccine development.

COVID-19 patients at risk of severe disease may be treated with neutralising monoclonal antibodies (mAbs). To minimise virus escape from neutralisation these are administered as combinations e.g. casirivimab+imdevimab or, for antibodies targeting relatively conserved regions, individually e.g. sotrovimab. Unprecedented genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK has enabled a genome-first approach to detect emerging drug resistance in Delta and Omicron cases treated with casirivimab+imdevimab and sotrovimab respectively. Mutations occur within the antibody epitopes and for casirivimab+imdevimab multiple mutations are present on contiguous raw reads, simultaneously affecting both components. Using surface plasmon resonance and pseudoviral neutralisation assays we demonstrate these mutations reduce or completely abrogate antibody affinity and neutralising activity, suggesting they are driven by immune evasion. In addition, we show that some mutations also reduce the neutralising activity of vaccine-induced serum.

Determination of serotypes of Streptococcus pneumoniae is essential for monitoring current vaccine programmes. Since October 2017, pneumococcal serotypes in England have been derived from whole genome sequencing (WGS) data using our bioinformatic tool PneumoCaT. That tool was designed for serotype determination from pure cultures in a reference laboratory. To help determine multiple serotypes in pneumococcal carriage samples, we developed a new software tool named PneumoKITy (Pneumococcal K-mer Integrated Typing) that uses the powerful Mash k-mer screening method for pneumococcal serotyping. Mash k-mer screening is more sequence specific and much faster than the mapping method used in PneumoCaT and can determine 54 (58.1 %) of the 93 serotypes in the SSI Diagnostica phenotypical serotyping scheme to type level with the remainder called to serogroup or subgroup level (e.g., 11A/D). PneumoKITy can be run on both FastQ and assembly input, requiring up to 11× less memory and running up to 29× faster than the current version of PneumoCaT (1.2.1) on FastQ files. PneumoKITy can be used as a rapid, flexible serotype screening method which adds sensitive detection of mixed serotypes, e.g., for nasopharyngeal carriage studies where the presence of multiple serotypes is common. PneumoKITy’s ability to function from assembly file, for pure culture serotype detection, increases its speed. This speed potentially enables the software to be run using low infrastructure overhead via web-based platforms. PneumoKITy could be used as a fast initial screening method with other tools used for those serotypes that could not be fully determined to type level if necessary. PneumoKITy was found to be highly accurate and sensitive when run on a panel of FastQ files derived from mixed cultures with all serotypes in 47/51 (92.2 %) of samples being accurately detected. PneumoKITy was also able to accurately estimate the relative abundance of serotypes in the same sample. Estimates being within a mean relative abundance of 1.5 % of the expected abundance in mixtures with known concentrations. PneumoKITy was able to detect minor serotypes with expected abundance of 1 % in the known mixture serotypes. PneumoKITy is a rapid, flexible tool with wide-ranging applications outside of the pure-culture, reference laboratory serotyping remit of PneumoCaT.

There are concerns that sotrovimab has reduced efficacy at reducing hospitalisation risk against the BA.2 sub‐lineage of the Omicron SARS‐CoV‐2 variant. We performed a retrospective cohort (n = 8850) study of individuals treated with sotrovimab in the community, with the objective of assessing whether there were any differences in risk of hospitalisation of BA.2 cases compared with BA.1. We estimated that the hazard ratio of hospital admission with a length of stay of 2 days or more was 1.17 for BA.2 compared with BA.1 (95%CI 0.74–1.86). These results suggest that the risk of hospital admission was similar between the two sub‐lineages.