Urban emissions remain an underexamined part of the methane budget. Here we present and interpret aircraft observations of six old and leak‐prone major cities along the East Coast of the United States. We use direct observations of methane (CH4), carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), ethane (C2H6), and their correlations to quantify CH4 emissions and attribute to natural gas. We find the five largest cities emit 0.85 (0.63, 1.12) Tg CH4/year, of which 0.75 (0.49, 1.10) Tg CH4/year is attributed to natural gas. Our estimates, which include all thermogenic methane sources including end use, are more than twice that reported in the most recent gridded EPA inventory, which does not include end‐use emissions. These results highlight that current urban inventory estimates of natural gas emissions are substantially low, either due to underestimates of leakage, lack of inclusion of end‐use emissions, or some combination thereof.
Flaring is widely used by the fossil fuel industry to dispose of natural gas. Industry and governments generally assume that flares remain lit and destroy methane, the predominant component of natural gas, with 98% efficiency. Neither assumption, however, is based on real-world observations. We calculate flare efficiency using airborne sampling across three basins responsible for >80% of US flaring and combine these observations with unlit flare prevalence surveys. We find that both unlit flares and inefficient combustion contribute comparably to ineffective methane destruction, with flares effectively destroying only 91.1% (90.2, 91.8; 95% confidence interval) of methane. This represents a fivefold increase in methane emissions above present assumptions and constitutes 4 to 10% of total US oil and gas methane emissions, highlighting a previously underappreciated methane source and mitigation opportunity.
Wetlands are the single largest source of methane to the atmosphere and their emissions are expected to respond to a changing climate. Inaccuracy and uncertainty in inundation extent drives differences in modeled wetland emissions and impacts representation of wetland emissions on inter‐annual and seasonal time frames. Existing wetland maps are based on optical or NIR satellite data obscured by clouds and vegetation, often leading to underestimates in wetlands extent, especially in the Tropics. Here, we present new inundation maps based on the Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) satellite constellation, operating in L‐band that is not impacted by clouds or vegetation, providing reliable observations through canopy and cloudy periods. We map the temporal and spatial dynamics of the Pantanal and Sudd wetlands, two of the largest wetlands in the world, using CYGNSS data and a computer vision algorithm. We link these inundation maps to methane fluxes via WetCHARTs, a global wetland methane emissions model ensemble. We contrast CYGNSS‐modeled methane emissions with WetCHARTs standard runs that use monthly rainfall data from ECMWF re‐analysis (ERA5), as well as the commonly used SWAMPS wetland maps. We find that the CYGNSS‐based inundation maps modify the methane emissions in multiple ways. The seasonality of inundation and methane emissions is shifted by two months because of the lag in wetland recharge following peak rainfall. Both inundation and methane emissions also respond non‐linearly to wet‐season precipitation totals, leading to large interannual variability in emissions. Finally, the annual magnitude of emissions is found to be greater than previously estimated.
3 April 2023 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
The Gulf of Mexico is the largest offshore fossil fuel production basin in the United States. Decisions on expanding production in the region legally depend on assessments of the climate impact of new growth. Here, we collect airborne observations and combine them with previous surveys and inventories to estimate the climate impact of current field operations. We evaluate all major on-site greenhouse gas emissions, carbon dioxide (CO2) from combustion, and methane from losses and venting. Using these findings, we estimate the climate impact per unit of energy of produced oil and gas (the carbon intensity). We find high methane emissions (0.60 Tg/y [0.41 to 0.81, 95% confidence interval]) exceeding inventories. This elevates the average CI of the basin to 5.3 g CO2e/MJ [4.1 to 6.7] (100-y horizon) over twice the inventories. The CI across the Gulf varies, with deep water production exhibiting a low CI dominated by combustion emissions (1.1 g CO2e/MJ), while shallow federal and state waters exhibit an extraordinarily high CI (16 and 43 g CO2e/MJ) primarily driven by methane emissions from central hub facilities (intermediaries for gathering and processing). This shows that production in shallow waters, as currently operated, has outsized climate impact. To mitigate these climate impacts, methane emissions in shallow waters must be addressed through efficient flaring instead of venting and repair, refurbishment, or abandonment of poorly maintained infrastructure. We demonstrate an approach to evaluate the CI of fossil fuel production using observations, considering all direct production emissions while allocating to all fossil products.
Carbon monoxide (CO) is an ozone precursor, oxidant sink, and widely used pollution tracer. The importance of anthropogenic versus other CO sources in the US is uncertain. Here, we interpret extensive airborne measurements with an atmospheric model to constrain US fossil and nonfossil CO sources. Measurements reveal a low bias in the simulated CO background and a 30% overestimate of US fossil CO emissions in the 2016 National Emissions Inventory. After optimization we apply the model for source partitioning. During summer, regional fossil sources account for just 9%–16% of the sampled boundary layer CO, and 32%–38% of the North American enhancement—complicating use of CO as a fossil fuel tracer. The remainder predominantly reflects biogenic hydrocarbon oxidation plus fires. Fossil sources account for less domain‐wide spatial variability at this time than nonfossil and background contributions. The regional fossil contribution rises in other seasons, and drives ambient variability downwind of urban areas.
7 February 2024 in Environmental Science & Technology
Tropical wetlands contribute ∼30% of the global methane (CH4) budget. Limited observational constraints on tropical wetland CH4 emissions lead to large uncertainties and disparities in representing emissions. In this work, we combine remote sensing observations with atmospheric and wetland models to investigate dry season wetland CH4 emissions from the Pantanal region of South America. We incorporate inundation maps generated from the Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) satellite constellation together with traditional inundation maps to generate an ensemble of wetland CH4 emission realizations. We challenge these realizations with daily satellite observations for May-July when wetland CH4 emission predictions diverge. We find that the CYGNSS inundation products predict larger emissions in May, in better agreement with observations. We use the model ensemble to generate an empirical observational constraint on CH4 emissions independent of choice of inundation map, finding large dry season wetland CH4 emissions (31.7 ± 13.6 and 32.0 ± 20.2 mg CH4/m2/day in May and June/July during 2018/2019, respectively). These May/June/July emissions are 2-3 times higher than current models, suggesting that annual wetland emissions may be higher than traditionally simulated. Observed trends in the early dry season indicate that dynamics during this period are of importance in representing tropical wetland CH4 behaviors.