The existence of persistent midlatitude atmospheric flow regimes with time-scales larger than 5–10 days and indications of preferred transitions between them motivates to develop early warning indicators for such regime transitions. In this paper, we use a hemispheric barotropic model together with estimates of transfer operators on a reduced phase space to develop an early warning indicator of the zonal to blocked flow transition in this model. It is shown that the spectrum of the transfer operators can be used to study the slow dynamics of the flow as well as the non-Markovian character of the reduction. The slowest motions are thereby found to have time scales of three to six weeks and to be associated with meta-stable regimes (and their transitions) which can be detected as almost-invariant sets of the transfer operator. From the energy budget of the model, we are able to explain the meta-stability of the regimes and the existence of preferred transition paths. Even though the model is highly simplified, the skill of the early warning indicator is promising, suggesting that the transfer operator approach can be used in parallel to an operational deterministic model for stochastic prediction or to assess forecast uncertainty.

The destruction of a chaotic attractor leading to rough changes in the dynamics of a dynamical system is studied. Local bifurcations are known to be characterised by a single or a pair of characteristic exponents crossing the imaginary axis. As a result, the approach of such bifurcations in the presence of noise can be inferred from the slowing down of the decay of correlations (Held and Kleinen 2004 Geophys. Res. Lett . 31 1–4). On the other hand, little is known about global bifurcations involving high-dimensional attractors with several positive Lyapunov exponents. It is known that the global stability of chaotic attractors may be characterised by the spectral properties of the Koopman (Mauroy and Mezić 2016 IEEE Trans. Autom. Control 61 3356–69) or the transfer operators governing the evolution of statistical ensembles. Accordingly, it has recently been shown (Tantet 2017 J. Stat. Phys . 1–33) that a boundary crisis in the Lorenz flow coincides with the approach to the unit circle of the eigenvalues of these operators associated with motions about the attractor, the stable resonances . A second class of resonances, the unstable resonances , are responsible for the decay of correlations and mixing on the attractor. In the deterministic case, these cannot be expected to be affected by general boundary crises. Here, however, we give an example of a chaotic system in which slowing down of the decay of correlations of some observables does occur at the approach of a boundary crisis. The system considered is a high-dimensional, chaotic climate model of physical relevance. Moreover, coarse-grained approximations of the transfer operators on a reduced space, constructed from a long time series of the system, give evidence that this behaviour is due to the approach of unstable resonances to the unit circle. That the unstable resonances are affected by the crisis can be physically understood from the fact that the process responsible for the instability, the ice-albedo feedback, is also active on the attractor. Finally, we discuss implications regarding response theory and the design of early-warning signals.