Although variation in effect sizes and predicted values among studies of similar phenomena is inevitable, such variation far exceeds what might be produced by sampling error alone. One possible explanation for variation among results is differences among researchers in the decisions they make regarding statistical analyses. A growing array of studies has explored this analytical variability in different fields and has found substantial variability among results despite analysts having the same data and research question. Many of these studies have been in the social sciences, but one small “many analyst” study found similar variability in ecology. We expanded the scope of this prior work by implementing a large-scale empirical exploration of the variation in effect sizes and model predictions generated by the analytical decisions of different researchers in ecology and evolutionary biology. We used two unpublished datasets, one from evolutionary ecology (blue tit, Cyanistes caeruleus, to compare sibling number and nestling growth) and one from conservation ecology (Eucalyptus, to compare grass cover and tree seedling recruitment). The project leaders recruited 174 analyst teams, comprising 246 analysts, to investigate the answers to prespecified research questions. Analyses conducted by these teams yielded 141 usable effects (compatible with our meta-analyses and with all necessary information provided) for the blue tit dataset, and 85 usable effects for the Eucalyptus dataset. We found substantial heterogeneity among results for both datasets, although the patterns of variation differed between them. For the blue tit analyses, the average effect was convincingly negative, with less growth for nestlings living with more siblings, but there was near continuous variation in effect size from large negative effects to effects near zero, and even effects crossing the traditional threshold of statistical significance in the opposite direction. In contrast, the average relationship between grass cover and Eucalyptus seedling number was only slightly negative and not convincingly different from zero, and most effects ranged from weakly negative to weakly positive, with about a third of effects crossing the traditional threshold of significance in one direction or the other. However, there were also several striking outliers in the Eucalyptus dataset, with effects far from zero. For both datasets, we found substantial variation in the variable selection and random effects structures among analyses, as well as in the ratings of the analytical methods by peer reviewers, but we found no strong relationship between any of these and deviation from the meta-analytic mean. In other words, analyses with results that were far from the mean were no more or less likely to have dissimilar variable sets, use random effects in their models, or receive poor peer reviews than those analyses that found results that were close to the mean. The existence of substantial variability among analysis outcomes raises important questions about how ecologists and evolutionary biologists should interpret published results, and how they should conduct analyses in the future.

Increasing settlement and post-settlement survival during the critical transition from planktonic larvae to benthic juveniles will increase efficiency for sea urchin aquaculture. This study investigated the effects of temperature and settlement cues on the settlement and post-settlement survival of the sea urchin Tripneustes gratilla during this phase. The current commercial methodology, which utilises natural biofilm settlement plates, was tested and resulted in low settlement (<2%) and poor post-settlement survival (90%) than a natural biofilm (∼25%). The addition of macroalgae-conditioned seawater to natural biofilm significantly increased settlement rates (>85%). Mixed consortia and single strains of bacteria isolated from macroalgae, biofilms and adult conspecifics all induced significant settlement, but at significantly lower rates than macroalgae. No evidence was found that higher rates of settlement to bacteria on macroalgae were generated by a cofactor from the macroalgae. Age of bacterial cultures, culturing bacteria on solid and liquid media and concentration of nutrients in cultures had little effect on settlement rates. Finally, macroalgae-conditioned seawater combined with natural biofilm settlement plates induced significantly higher settlement than to the biofilm plates alone in a commercial scale trial. However, high post-settlement mortality resulted in equivalent survival between treatments after 25 days. This study highlights that settlement studies should extend to post-settlement survival, which remains poor for T. gratilla and is a significant obstacle to increasing efficiency for aquaculture.

Crown-of-thorns seastar (COTS) outbreaks are a major threat to coral reefs. Although the herbivorous juveniles and their switch to corallivory are key to seeding outbreaks, they remain a black box in our understanding of COTS. We investigated the impact of a delay in diet transition due to coral scarcity in cohorts reared on crustose coralline algae for 10 months and 6.5 years before being offered coral. Both cohorts achieved an asymptotic size (16–18 mm diameter) on algae and had similar exponential growth on coral. After 6.5 years of herbivory, COTS were competent coral predators. This trophic and growth plasticity results in a marked age–size disconnect adding unappreciated complexity to COTS boom–bust dynamics. The potential that herbivorous juveniles accumulate in the reef infrastructure to seed outbreaks when favourable conditions arise has implications for management of COTS populations.

We compared the effects of preservation and storage methods on total alkalinity (A_T) of seawater, estuarine water, freshwater, and groundwater samples stored for 0–6 months. Water samples, untreated or treated with HgCl₂, 0.45 µm filtration, or filtration plus HgCl₂, were stored in polypropylene or borosilicate glass vials for 0, 1, or 6 months. Mean A_T of samples treated with HgCl₂ was reduced by as much as 49.1 µmol kg⁻¹ (1.3%). Borosilicate glass elevated A_T, possibly due to dissolving silicates. There was little change in A_T of control and filtered samples stored in polypropylene, except for untreated groundwater (~ 4.1% reduction at 6 months). HgCl₂ concentrations of 0.02–0.05% reduced the A_T of fresh, estuarine, and ground water samples by as much as 35.5 µmol kg⁻¹ after 1 month, but had little effect on the A_T of seawater. Adding glucose as a carbon source for microbial growth resulted in no A_T changes in 0.45 µm-filtered samples. We suggest water samples intended for A_T analyses can be filtered to 0.45 µm, and stored in polypropylene vials at 4 °C for at least 6 months. Borosilicate glassware and HgCl₂ can be avoided to prevent analytical uncertainties and reduce risks related to use of Hg²⁺.

The dispersal potential of crown-of-thorns starfish (CoTS) larvae is important in understanding both the initiation and spread of population outbreaks, and is fundamentally dependent upon how long larvae can persist while still retaining the capacity to settle. This study quantified variation in larval survivorship and settlement rates for CoTS maintained at three different densities of a single-celled flagellate phytoplankton, Proteomonas sulcata (1 × 10³, 1 × 10⁴, and 1 × 10⁵ cells/mL). Based on the larval starvation hypothesis, we expected that low to moderate levels of phytoplankton prey would significantly constrain both survival and settlement. CoTS larvae were successfully maintained for up to 50 days post-fertilization, but larval survival differed significantly between treatments. Survival was greatest at intermediate food levels (1 × 10⁴ cells/mL), and lowest at high (1 × 10⁵ cells/mL) food levels. Rates of settlement were also highest at intermediate food levels and peaked at 22 days post-fertilization. Peak settlement was delayed at low food levels, probably reflective of delayed development, but there was no evidence of accelerated development at high chlorophyll concentrations. CoTS larvae were recorded to settle 17–43 days post-fertilization, but under optimum conditions with intermediate algal cell densities, peak settlement occurred at 22 days post-fertilization. Natural fluctuations in nutrient concentrations and food availability may affect the number of CoTS that effectively settle, but seem unlikely to influence dispersal dynamics.