Highland maize monoculture in northern Thailand drives severe soil erosion, carbon loss and downstream hydrological damage. This study evaluates whether converting highland maize to perennial agroforestry (coffee, cocoa and bamboo) can reverse these impacts while remaining economically viable for smallholders, and whether payment for ecosystem services (PES) can support the transition. Using biophysical models (RUSLE, SCS-CN, IPCC Tier-1 carbon coefficients) forced by observed and downscaled climate data, a ten-year transition (2024–2033) across 19 provinces was simulated under three scenarios: business as usual, partial (50%) and full (100%) agroforestry conversion. Full conversion substantially reduces soil erosion and surface runoff while more than doubling aboveground carbon stock relative to business as usual, with partial conversion delivering roughly half these gains. Economically, full conversion yields the highest net present value of benefits across all discount rates tested, though smallholders face a temporary income shortfall during the early tree establishment years. We show that PES functions best not as a permanent subsidy but as bridging finance: front-loaded payments from soil and carbon co-benefits offset this transitional gap, with reliance on PES declining as tree crops mature into commercial production. These findings offer a transferable framework for designing PES schemes that de-risk agroforestry transitions in tropical highland landscapes.

Energy resilience is essential for regions that rely heavily on external energy sources and those vulnerable to natural disasters that can disrupt electricity supply. This study explores the potential of waste-to-energy (WtE) technologies to enhance energy resilience by utilizing local municipal solid waste and agricultural biomass residues. It analyses waste incineration, which converts combustible waste into heat for energy generation, and anaerobic digestion, which transforms organic waste into biogas through microbial processes. Both technologies offer significant advantages, including reducing waste volume, generating renewable energy, and lowering greenhouse gas emissions from open burning or landfilling. Together with Material Flow Analysis (MFA) was employed to evaluate waste flows and the potential for energy production. The analysis was conducted using a scenario analysis, which revealed a potential reduction of up to 45% in external energy imports with local renewable energy. The study results show improvements in key indicators such as the self-sufficiency ratio and energy resilience, highlighting the role of decentralized energy systems in making energy access more flexible and diversified while also solving local waste management problems, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and alleviating environmental impacts. However, implementing WtE systems presents specific challenges, such as restrictions on waste collection and transportation, high technology costs, and the need to operate the system continuously.