We experimentally study the K2 algorithm in learning a Bayesian network (BN) classifier for image detection of cytogenetic abnormalities. Starting from an initial BN structure, the K2 algorithm searches the BN structure space and selects the structure maximizing the K2 metric. To improve the accuracy of the K2-based BN classifier, we investigate the K2 algorithm initial ordering, search procedure, and metric. We find that BN structures learned using random initial orderings, orderings based on expert knowledge, or a scatter criterion are comparable and lead to similar classification accuracies. Replacing the K2 search with hill-climbing search improves the accuracy as does the inclusion of hidden nodes in the BN structure. Also, we demonstrate that though the maximization of the K2 metric solicits structures providing improved inference, these structures contribute to only limited classification accuracy.

Objective: Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) disease state prediction usually assumes linear progression and uses a classifier evaluated by its accuracy. Since disease progression is not linear, and the accuracy measurement cannot tell large from small prediction errors, we dispense with the linearity assumption and apply ordinal classification that accounts for error severity. In addition, we identify the most influential variables in predicting and explaining the disease. Furthermore, in contrast to conventional modeling of the patient’s total functionality, we also model separate patient functionalities (e.g., in walking or speaking). Methods: Using data from 3772 patients from the Pooled Resource Open-Access ALS Clinical Trials (PRO-ACT) database, we introduce and train ordinal classifiers to predict patients’ disease state in their last clinic visit, while accounting differently for different error severities. We use feature-selection methods and the classifiers themselves to determine the most influential variables in predicting the disease from demographic, clinical, and laboratory data collected in either the first, last, or both clinic visits, and the Bayesian network classifier to identify interrelations among these variables and their relations with the disease state. We apply these methods to model each of the patient functionalities. Results: We show the error distribution in ALS state prediction and demonstrate that ordinal classifiers outperform classifiers that do not account for error severity. We identify clinical and lab test variables influential to prediction of different ALS functionalities and their interrelations, and specific value combinations of these variables that occur more frequently in patients with severe deterioration than in patients with mild deterioration and vice versa. Conclusions: Ordinal classification of ALS state is superior to conventional classification. Identification of influential ALS variables and their interrelations help explain disease mechanism. Modeling of patient functionalities separately allows relation of variables and their connections to different aspects of the disease as may be expressed in different body segments.

Solving a multiclass classification task using a small imbalanced database of patterns of high dimension is difficult due to the curse-of-dimensionality and the bias of the training toward the majority classes. Such a problem has arisen while diagnosing genetic abnormalities by classifying a small database of fluorescence in situ hybridization signals of types having different frequencies of occurrence. We propose and experimentally study using the cytogenetic domain two solutions to the problem. The first is hierarchical decomposition of the classification task, where each hierarchy level is designed to tackle a simpler problem which is represented by classes that are approximately balanced. The second solution is balancing the data by up-sampling the minority classes accompanied by dimensionality reduction. Implemented by the naive Bayesian classifier or the multilayer perceptron neural network, both solutions have diminished the problem and contributed to accuracy improvement. In addition, the experiments suggest that coping with the smallness of the data is more beneficial than dealing with its imbalance