In this study the forecast skill of the U.S. Navy operational Arctic sea ice forecast system, the Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System (ACNFS), is presented for the period February 2014 to June 2015. ACNFS is designed to provide short term, 1–7 day forecasts of Arctic sea ice and ocean conditions. Many quantities are forecast by ACNFS; the most commonly used include ice concentration, ice thickness, ice velocity, sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, and sea surface velocities. Ice concentration forecast skill is compared to a persistent ice state and historical sea ice climatology. Skill scores are focused on areas where ice concentration changes by ±5% or more, and are therefore limited to primarily the marginal ice zone. We demonstrate that ACNFS forecasts are skilful compared to assuming a persistent ice state, especially beyond 24 h. ACNFS is also shown to be particularly skilful compared to a climatologic state for forecasts up to 102 h. Modeled ice drift velocity is compared to observed buoy data from the International Arctic Buoy Programme. A seasonal bias is shown where ACNFS is slower than IABP velocity in the summer months and faster in the winter months. In February 2015, ACNFS began to assimilate a blended ice concentration derived from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) and the Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS). Preliminary results show that assimilating AMSR2 blended with IMS improves the short‐term forecast skill and ice edge location compared to the independently derived National Ice Center Ice Edge product.

Sea ice monitoring by polar orbiting satellites has been developed over more than four decades and is today one of the most well-established applications of space observations. This article gives an overview of data product development from the first sensors to the state-of-the-art regarding retrieval methods, new products and operational data sets serving climate monitoring as well as daily operational services including ice charting and forecasting. Passive microwave data has the longest history and represents the backbone of global ice monitoring with already more than four decades of consistent observations of ice concentration and extent. Time series of passive microwave data is the primary climate data set to document the sea ice decline in the Arctic. Scatterometer data is a valuable supplement to the passive microwave data, in particular to retrieve ice displacement and distinguish between firstyear and multiyear ice. Radar and laser altimeter data has become the main method to estimate sea ice thickness and thereby fill a gap in the observation of sea ice as an essential climate variable. Data on ice thickness allows estimation of ice volume and masses as well as improvement of the ice forecasts. The use of different altimetric frequencies also makes it possible to measure the depth of the snow covering the ice. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) has become the work horse in operational ice observation on regional scale because high-resolution radar images are delivered year-round in nearly all regions where national ice services produce ice charts. Synthetic Aperture Radar data are also important for sea ice research because the data can be used to observe a number of sea ice processes and phenomena, like ice type development and sea ice dynamics, and thereby contribute to new knowledge about sea ice. The use of sea ice data products in modelling and forecasting services as well as in ice navigation is discussed. Finally, the article describes future plans for new satellites and sensors to be used in sea ice observation.

There has been an increased interest in seasonal forecasting of the Arctic sea ice extent in recent years, in particular the minimum sea ice extent. Here, a dynamical mechanism, based on winter preconditioning, is found to explain a significant fraction of the variance in the anomaly of the September sea ice extent from the long-term linear trend. To this end, a Lagrangian trajectory model is used to backtrack the September sea ice edge to any time during the previous winter and quantify the amount of sea ice advection away from the Eurasian and Alaskan coastlines as well as the Fram Strait sea ice export. The late-winter anomalous sea ice drift away from the coastline is highly correlated with the following September sea ice extent minimum . It is found that the winter mean Fram Strait sea ice export anomaly is also correlated with the minimum sea ice extent the following summer . To develop a hindcast model of the September sea ice extent—which does not depend on a priori knowledge of the minimum sea ice extent—a synthetic ice edge initialized at the beginning of the melt season (1 June) is backtracked. It is found that using a multivariate regression model of the September sea ice extent anomaly based on ice export from the peripheral Arctic seas and Fram Strait ice export as predictors reduces the error by 38%. A hindcast model based on the mean December–April Arctic Oscillation index alone reduces the error by 24%.

This study presents the improvement in ice edge error within the US Navy's operational sea ice forecast systems gained by assimilating high horizontal resolution satellite-derived ice concentration products. Since the late 1980's, the ice forecast systems have assimilated near real-time sea ice concentration derived from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSMI and then SSMIS). The resolution of the satellite-derived product was approximately the same as the previous operational ice forecast system (25 km). As the sea ice forecast model resolution increased over time, the need for higher horizontal resolution observational data grew. In 2013, a new Navy sea ice forecast system (Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System – ACNFS) went into operations with a horizontal resolution of ~ 3.5 km at the North Pole. A method of blending ice concentration observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR2) along with a sea ice mask produced by the National Ice Center (NIC) has been developed, resulting in an ice concentration product with very high spatial resolution. In this study, ACNFS was initialized with this newly developed high resolution blended ice concentration product. The daily ice edge locations from model hindcast simulations were compared against independent observed ice edge locations. ACNFS initialized using the high resolution blended ice concentration data product decreased predicted ice edge location error compared to the operational system that only assimilated SSMIS data. A second evaluation assimilating the new blended sea ice concentration product into the pre-operational Navy Global Ocean Forecast System 3.1 also showed a substantial improvement in ice edge location over a system using the SSMIS sea ice concentration product alone. This paper describes the technique used to create the blended sea ice concentration product and the significant improvements in ice edge forecasting in both of the Navy's sea ice forecasting systems.