Leaf wetness duration (LWD) and plant diseases are strongly associated with each other. Therefore, LWD is a critical ecological variable for plant disease risk assessment. However, LWD is rarely used in the analysis of plant disease epidemiology and risk assessment because it is a non-standard meteorological variable. The application of satellite observations may facilitate the prediction of LWD as they may represent important related parameters and are particularly useful for meteorologically ungauged locations. In this study, the applicability of geostationary satellite observations for LWD prediction was investigated. GEO-KOMPSAT-2A satellite observations were used as inputs and six machine learning (ML) algorithms were employed to arrive at hourly LW predictions. The performances of these models were compared with that of a physical model through systematic evaluation. Results indicated that the LWD could be predicted using satellite observations and ML. A random forest model exhibited larger accuracy (0.82) than that of the physical model (0.79) in leaf wetness prediction. The performance of the proposed approach was comparable to that of the physical model in predicting LWD. Overall, the artificial intelligence (AI) models exhibited good performances in predicting LWD in South Korea.

Leaf wetness duration (LWD) models have been proposed as an alternative to in situ LWD measurement, as they can predict leaf wetness using physical mechanism and empirical relationship with meteorological conditions. Applications of advanced machine learning (ML) algorithms in the development of empirical LWD model can lead to improvements in the LWD prediction. The current study developed LWD model using extreme learning machine, random forest method, and a deep neural network. Additionally, performances of these ML-based LWD models are evaluated and compared with existing models. Observed LWD and meteorological variable data are obtained from nine farms in South Korea. Temporal and geographical information were also used. Additionally, the priorities of the employed variables in the development of the ML-based LWD models were analyzed. As a result, the ML-based LWD models outperformed the existing models; the random forest led to the best performance for LWD prediction among the tested LWD models. Strengths of associations between input variables and leaf wetness were relative humidity, short wave radiation, air temperature, hour, latitude, longitude, and wind speed in descending order. Uses of the geographical and time information in development of LWD model can improve the performance of LWD model.

Leaf wetness duration (LWD) has rarely been measured due to lack of standard protocol. Thus, empirical and physical models have been proposed to resolve this gap. Although the physical model provides robust performance in diverse conditions, it requires many variables. The empirical model requires fewer variables; nevertheless, its performance is specific to a given condition. A universal LWD estimation model using fewer variables is thus needed to improve LWD estimation. The objective of this study was to develop emulators of the LWD estimation physical model for use as universal empirical models. It is assumed that the Penman–Monteith (PM) model determines LWD and can be employed as a physical model. In this study, a simulation was designed and conducted to investigate the characteristics of the PM model and to build the emulators. The performances of the built emulators were evaluated based on a case study of LWD data obtained in South Korea. It was determined that a machine learning algorithm can properly emulate the PM model in LWD estimations based on the simulation. Moreover, the poor performances of some emulators that use wind speed may have been due to the limitation of wind speed measurement. The accuracy of the anemometer is thus critical to estimating LWD using physical models. A deep neural network using relative humidity and air temperature was found to be the most appropriate emulator of those tested for LWD estimation.