Accurate estimates of virus mutation rates are important to understand the evolution of the viruses and to combat them. However, methods of estimation are varied and often complex. Here, we critically review over 40 original studies and establish criteria to facilitate comparative analyses. The mutation rates of 23 viruses are presented as substitutions per nucleotide per cell infection (s/n/c) and corrected for selection bias where necessary, using a new statistical method. The resulting rates range from 10 ⁻⁸ to10 ⁻⁶ s/n/c for DNA viruses and from 10 ⁻⁶ to 10 ⁻⁴ s/n/c for RNA viruses. Similar to what has been shown previously for DNA viruses, there appears to be a negative correlation between mutation rate and genome size among RNA viruses, but this result requires further experimental testing. Contrary to some suggestions, the mutation rate of retroviruses is not lower than that of other RNA viruses. We also show that nucleotide substitutions are on average four times more common than insertions/deletions (indels). Finally, we provide estimates of the mutation rate per nucleotide per strand copying, which tends to be lower than that per cell infection because some viruses undergo several rounds of copying per cell, particularly double-stranded DNA viruses. A regularly updated virus mutation rate data set will be available at www.uv.es/rsanjuan/virmut .

The remarkable capacity of some viruses to adapt to new hosts and environments is highly dependent on their ability to generate de novo diversity in a short period of time. Rates of spontaneous mutation vary amply among viruses. RNA viruses mutate faster than DNA viruses, single-stranded viruses mutate faster than double-strand virus, and genome size appears to correlate negatively with mutation rate. Viral mutation rates are modulated at different levels, including polymerase fidelity, sequence context, template secondary structure, cellular microenvironment, replication mechanisms, proofreading, and access to post-replicative repair. Additionally, massive numbers of mutations can be introduced by some virus-encoded diversity-generating elements, as well as by host-encoded cytidine/adenine deaminases. Our current knowledge of viral mutation rates indicates that viral genetic diversity is determined by multiple virus- and host-dependent processes, and that viral mutation rates can evolve in response to specific selective pressures.

Little is known about the mutational fitness effects associated with single-nucleotide substitutions on RNA viral genomes. Here, we used site-directed mutagenesis to create 91 single mutant clones of vesicular stomatitis virus derived from a common ancestral cDNA and performed competition experiments to measure the relative fitness of each mutant. The distribution of nonlethal deleterious effects was highly skewed and had a long, flat tail. As expected, fitness effects depended on whether mutations were chosen at random or reproduced previously described ones. The effect of random deleterious mutations was well described by a log-normal distribution, with -19% reduction of average fitness; the effects distribution of preobserved deleterious mutations was better explained by a β model. The fit of both models was improved when combined with a uniform distribution. Up to 40% of random mutations were lethal. The proportion of beneficial mutations was unexpectedly high. Beneficial effects followed a γ distribution, with expected fitness increases of 1% for random mutations and 5% for preobserved mutations.

Rates of spontaneous mutation critically determine the genetic diversity and evolution of RNA viruses. Although these rates have been characterized in vitro and in cell culture models, they have seldom been determined in vivo for human viruses. Here, we use the intrapatient frequency of premature stop codons to quantify the HIV-1 genome-wide rate of spontaneous mutation in DNA sequences from peripheral blood mononuclear cells. This reveals an extremely high mutation rate of (4.1 ± 1.7) × 10⁻³ per base per cell, the highest reported for any biological entity. Sequencing of plasma-derived sequences yielded a mutation frequency 44 times lower, indicating that a large fraction of viral genomes are lethally mutated and fail to reach plasma. We show that the HIV-1 reverse transcriptase contributes only 2% of mutations, whereas 98% result from editing by host cytidine deaminases of the A3 family. Hypermutated viral sequences are less abundant in patients showing rapid disease progression compared to normal progressors, highlighting the antiviral role of A3 proteins. However, the amount of A3-mediated editing varies broadly, and we find that low-edited sequences are more abundant among rapid progressors, suggesting that suboptimal A3 activity might enhance HIV-1 genetic diversity and pathogenesis. The high levels of genetic diversity of the HIV-1 virus grant it the ability to escape the immune system, to rapidly evolve drug resistance, and to circumvent vaccination strategies. However, our knowledge of HIV-1 mutation rates has been largely restricted to in vitro and cell culture studies because of the inherent complexity of measuring these rates in vivo. Here, by analyzing the frequency of premature stop codons, we show that the HIV-1 mutation rate in vivo is two orders of magnitude higher than that predicted by in vitro studies, making it the highest reported mutation rate for any biological system. A large component of this rate is from host cellular cytidine deaminases, which induce mutations in the viral DNA as a defense mechanism. While the HIV-1 genome is hypermutated in blood cells, only a very small fraction of these mutations reach the plasma, indicating that many viruses are defective as a result of the extremely high mutation load. In addition, we find that the HIV-1 mutation rate tends to be higher in patients showing normal disease progression than in those undergoing rapid progression, emphasizing the negative impact on viral fitness of hypermutation by host cytidine deaminases. However, we also observe subpopulations of weakly-mutated viral genomes whose sequence diversity may influence viral pathogenesis. Our work highlights the fine balance for HIV-1 between enough mutation to evade host responses and too much mutation that can inactivate the virus.

The mutation rates of viroids, plant pathogens with minimal non-protein-coding RNA genomes, are unknown. Their replication is mediated by host RNA polymerases and, in some cases, by hammerhead ribozymes, small self-cleaving motifs embedded in the viroid. By using the principle that the population frequency of nonviable genotypes equals the mutation rate, we screened for changes that inactivated the hammerheads of Chrysanthemum chlorotic mottle viroid . We obtained a mutation rate of 1/400 per site, the highest reported for any biological entity. Such error-prone replication can only be tolerated by extremely simple genomes such as those of viroids and, presumably, the primitive replicons of the RNA world. Our results suggest that the emergence of replication fidelity was critical for the evolution of complexity in the early history of life.