This article presents a comparative analysis of energy governance with respect to renewable energy sources in Ecuador. The use of renewable energy sources increases energy security and enables countries to achieve their climate mitigation goals. Ecuador’s energy mix is dominated using fossil fuels and produces only 7.8% of its energy supply from renewable energy. The scenario analysis suggests that using the example of international renewable energy policies will achieve sustainable energy development in Ecuador. Relying less on fossil fuels and decentralizing the electricity sector from the use of thermoelectric plants is the great challenge for the country. Using the enormous water potential that Ecuador has and taking advantage of the sources of solar, biomass and wind energy available in the country will reduce the forecast of 60,233.70 KT CO₂ by 2030 that would be reached if current consumption conditions and energy mix are maintained, while designing a long-term energy planning with a greater participation of renewable energies would forecast a CO₂ emission of 41,232.30 KT, that is, a reduction of 31.5% in emissions.

La Economía Circular es un modelo de negocio que se basa en el reciclaje, la reutilización y la reducción de los recursos naturales, que, a partir de la revolución industrial, las empresas han creado una gran cantidad de productos, que promueven el consumo y se generan residuos destinados a la contaminación ambiental sin un posterior tratamiento. Se analizan los principales países que están tomando medidas al respecto y brindando un ejemplo de mejora al promover dicho modelo de economía, tomando en cuenta factores de diseño e innovación en la creación de productos. En el Ecuador se están llevando a cabo programas de participación más activa en el conocimiento y aplicación de la Economía Circular, donde el reciclaje de residuos se empieza a tomar conciencia en los hogares e instituciones encargadas de las políticas de aplicación sustentable.

Climate change and global warming are related to the demand for energy, energy efficiency, and CO₂ emissions. In this research, in order to project the trends in final energy demand, energy intensity, and CO₂ emission production in Ecuador during a period between 2000 and 2030, a model has been developed based on the dynamics of the systems supported by Vensim simulation models. The energy matrix of Ecuador has changed in recent years, giving more importance to hydropower. It is conclusive that, if industrialized country policies or trends on the use of renewable energy and energy efficiency were applied, the production of CO₂ emissions by 2030 in Ecuador would reach 42,191.4 KTCO₂, a value well below the 75,182.6 KTCO₂ that would be seen if the current conditions are maintained. In the same way, by 2030, energy intensity would be reduced to 54% compared to the beginning of the simulation period.

This article describes the results of a study of Ecuador’s energy status, using the system dynamics methodology to model supply, demand and CO₂ emissions scenarios for the year 2030. Primary energy production increased in the different projected scenarios, with oil as the most important source of energy. The increase observed in final energy consumption was mainly associated with the transport and industry sectors. A reduction in energy intensity was projected for the different scenarios, which could be associated with the projected economic growth. The results obtained were used to build a proposal for energy policies aimed at mitigating emissions. The proposed changes to the national energy matrix could be the factors that will contribute most to the achievement of carbon emission reductions projected by the different scenarios; changes in the energy matrix are mainly associated with the development of projects to replace fossil fuels with renewable energies, mainly hydropower.

El presente artículo muestra la importancia de la Economía Circular en la actualidad y como esta se debe implementar en las empresas de la ciudad de Quito para construir un cambio radical en nuestro sistema económico y en nuestro medioambiente. Los últimos 150 años de evolución industrial han estado dominados por un modelo de producción y consumo lineal, en donde los productos/bienes son producidos a partir de materias primas, después son vendidos, utilizados y finalmente desechados como residuos. Frente a la actual economía global y el aumento de evidencias que apuntan a la creciente escasez y sobreexplotación de recursos, nace la necesidad de la búsqueda de un nuevo modelo económico (negocio). La economía circular presenta un cambio radical para lograr una economía sustentable para la sociedad, priorizando el cuidado y el uso de recursos, reduciendo el impacto ambiental que generamos. Finalmente se analiza la situación actual de la industria ecuatoriana las cuales buscan cambiar de un modelo lineal a un modelo circular, procurando minimizar riesgos, costos e impactos ambientales.

In Ecuador, the growth of the transportation sector has significantly increased greenhouse gas emissions. According to experts, this sector currently contributes to 49.8% of total greenhouse gas emissions in this country. This poses significant challenges for environmental sustainability, emphasizing the urgent need for effective strategies to mitigate these emissions and promote environmentally friendly practices. Therefore, this study focuses on developing a dynamic simulation of energy scenarios for the year 2035 in the transportation sector, with the goal of transitioning to sustainable mobility, as fossil fuels are the main pollutants in the country. This study proposes system dynamics models using VENSIM 6.0b software to estimate the total energy demand and pollutant emissions in the transportation sector. The results suggest that if Ecuador aligns with global mobility trends and implements public policies promoting the use of electric vehicles, total CO₂ emissions could potentially decrease from 50,161,432 kilobarrels of oil equivalent (kBOE) to 20,589,720 kBOE by the year 2035.