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Agricultural activities are shaped by climate cycles, and net negative effects of climate change on crop production are evident from scientific researches. This data-driven analytical study aims to assess the fraction of yield trends and variabilities of six major crops (aus, aman, and boro rice, wheat, potato, and jute) attributable to climatic trends and variabilities in coastal and non-coastal areas of Bangladesh. Mixed effects model was used to detect the effects of temperature and precipitation on the crop production and piecewise regression models to estimate the association between climate and yield variabilities. The predicted yields using the detrended temperature and/or precipitation series were subtracted from the predicted yields using their observed series to obtain the yield impact of temperature and/or precipitation trends. During the major disasters (1970–2017), the coast and non-coast, respectively, had lost 12.10 and 9.56% of their crop production. Climatic records (1970–2017) show that the coastal areas had become 0.35 °C warmer and 579 mm wetter, respectively, with 0.15 and 8.57% greater variance than the mainland. Consequently, negative impacts of climatic trends and variabilities on yield trends and variabilities were found to be higher in the coastal region. On average, 2.75 and 2.91% of the crop yields were lost, respectively, due to climatic trends and variabilities, which is equivalent to 2.4 million tons per year (Mt/yr). Excluding the effects of locations and crop types, temperature and precipitation can explain 12% (≡3.06 Mt./yr) of the crop production variance. Findings suggest that coastal crop production is more susceptible to climate change than the inland. Useful insights provided by this research would help policymakers to develop strategies to make future crop production more stable. Researchers and academicians can also benefit from the generated data and methodological approaches to analyse regional and global scale climatic roles in crop production.
Kamrul Hasan; Lalit Kumar. Yield trends and variabilities explained by climatic change in coastal and non-coastal areas of Bangladesh. Science of The Total Environment 2021, 795, 148814 .
AMA StyleKamrul Hasan, Lalit Kumar. Yield trends and variabilities explained by climatic change in coastal and non-coastal areas of Bangladesh. Science of The Total Environment. 2021; 795 ():148814.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKamrul Hasan; Lalit Kumar. 2021. "Yield trends and variabilities explained by climatic change in coastal and non-coastal areas of Bangladesh." Science of The Total Environment 795, no. : 148814.
Impacts of climatic and non-climatic risks are on the rise in the major maize-growing counties of western Kenya. We conducted a questionnaire survey of sampled maize farmers in Nandi, West Pokot, Uasin Gishu and Trans Nzoia counties, achieving 210 responses. We used a stepwise regression model to evaluate the factors influencing farmers’ perceptions of farming risks. Results show that most of the sampled farmers were aware of the risks, and perceived reduced rainfall with erratic patterns to be the major climatic risk in crop production. The non-climatic factors were identified as inadequate farm size, limited extension services, land degradation and low soil fertility. The determinant factors that influence farmers’ perception of climatic and non-climatic risks affecting crop production were age, farm size, income, crop production cost, marital status, the highest level of education and farming experience. Understanding the risks faced in crop production and determinants of farmers’ perceptions can be important in the development and dissemination of sustainable agronomic strategies tailored towards improving crop production.
Benjamin Kipkemboi Kogo; Lalit Kumar; Richard Koech; Kamrul Hasan. Climatic and non-climatic risks in rainfed crop production systems: insights from maize farmers of western Kenya. Climate and Development 2021, 1 -10.
AMA StyleBenjamin Kipkemboi Kogo, Lalit Kumar, Richard Koech, Kamrul Hasan. Climatic and non-climatic risks in rainfed crop production systems: insights from maize farmers of western Kenya. Climate and Development. 2021; ():1-10.
Chicago/Turabian StyleBenjamin Kipkemboi Kogo; Lalit Kumar; Richard Koech; Kamrul Hasan. 2021. "Climatic and non-climatic risks in rainfed crop production systems: insights from maize farmers of western Kenya." Climate and Development , no. : 1-10.
Agriculture is responsive to weather and climate variability. In addition to the climatic stressors, coastal agriculture is influenced by non-climatic factors. Therefore, understanding farmers' perception of the causes of their changes in farm management plays a key role in motivating them to adopt agricultural adaptations. The aim of this study was to investigate the changes in coastal farm management in Bangladesh over the last decade compared to the previous one. We explored whether the causes of those changes were climatic or non-climatic as perceived by the farmers and the factors that shaped their perceptions. We interviewed 381 farmers sampled from ten subdistricts along the coast of Bangladesh. Descriptive statistics showed that the farmers had changed on average 10 to 11 farm management practices. Though the average value was 67%, a higher number of farmers in the western coastal zone mentioned that climate change had impacts on their farm management. Adoption of rice crop-related adaptations was greater than livestock, fisheries or general agricultural practices. According to the discriminant function analysis, discriminative variables were perception of climatic impacts on farm productivity, climate change awareness, involvement with non-farm jobs, age, education, organizational affiliation, number of changed farm practices, and meteorologically consistent perception of rainfall and temperature. Lessons learned from this research are that the farmers should better understand the link between climate change and farm management practices while motivating them to implement adaptation strategies. This could be achieved by improving farmers’ climate change awareness, perceptions of changes in climatic parameters and involvement with farm-related associations.
Kamrul Hasan; Lalit Kumar. Discriminated perceptions of climatic impacts on coastal farm management practices. Journal of Environmental Management 2020, 278, 111550 .
AMA StyleKamrul Hasan, Lalit Kumar. Discriminated perceptions of climatic impacts on coastal farm management practices. Journal of Environmental Management. 2020; 278 ():111550.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKamrul Hasan; Lalit Kumar. 2020. "Discriminated perceptions of climatic impacts on coastal farm management practices." Journal of Environmental Management 278, no. : 111550.
The Jaffna Peninsula in Sri Lanka has a generally flat topography with a median elevation of 2.72 m, and thus faces a high risk from sea-level rise that has the potential to have adverse impacts on the livelihoods of coastal communities. Understanding these risks and identifying the regions that could be adversely impacted is critical for planning future settlements and developing preventative protocols where possible. The aim of this study was to analyze the exposure of coastal settlements of the Jaffna Peninsula to climate risks, particularly to sea-level rise, and to identify the areas that are likely to be impacted under different sea-level rise scenarios. Raster-based sea-level rise modeling was performed with a digital elevation model produced with topographic contours and spot heights. The spatial distribution of individual residential houses for the entire Jaffna Peninsula was obtained through manual digitization using virtual globe platforms and high-resolution satellite images, and the houses exposed to inundation under various Representative Concentration Pathways from 2025 to 2100 were identified. The results showed that a majority (55.5%) of the residential buildings in the Jaffna Peninsula are located within 3 m above sea level. Approximately 5554 (5.6%) of the houses were projected to be inundated by 2100, and this projection increased to approximately 25,074 (25.4%) under high tide scenarios. This study highlights the coastal communities with a high level of exposure to coastal inundation where adaptation planning is essential. These results provide insights for coastal managers and policy makers for future planning of new settlements and urban expansion.
Tharani Gopalakrishnan; Lalit Kumar; Kamrul Hasan. Coastal settlement patterns and exposure to sea-level rise in the Jaffna Peninsula, Sri Lanka. Population and Environment 2020, 42, 129 -145.
AMA StyleTharani Gopalakrishnan, Lalit Kumar, Kamrul Hasan. Coastal settlement patterns and exposure to sea-level rise in the Jaffna Peninsula, Sri Lanka. Population and Environment. 2020; 42 (2):129-145.
Chicago/Turabian StyleTharani Gopalakrishnan; Lalit Kumar; Kamrul Hasan. 2020. "Coastal settlement patterns and exposure to sea-level rise in the Jaffna Peninsula, Sri Lanka." Population and Environment 42, no. 2: 129-145.
Coastal farmers are the first group of people who feel climate-related calamities most severely, such as sea-level rise, salinity intrusion, coastal flooding, tidal surges and tropical cyclones. They are operating agricultural activities under these climatic conditions that affect farm productivity. This study explores farmer perceptions of changes in farm productivity and perceptions of causes of decreased farm productivity (if any) over the past 10 years compared with more than 10 years back. We partitioned the causes of decreased farm productivity into climatic and non-climatic based on the primary data collected through household survey in ten coastal subdistricts along the coast of the Bay of Bengal. We visited 381 households during September–October 2018 using a pre-tested structured interview schedule. Average monetary farm productivity in the study area was 1.98. A small proportion (11%) of the sampled farmers mentioned that farm productivity had decreased over the past years. A majority (64%) of them believed that climate change was responsible for such decreases in farm productivity. The farmers who thought that climate change was causing the decreased farm productivity were characterized by greater education, more awareness of climate change, less communication with extension agents, stronger belief in decreased cyclone and salinity, and weaker belief in decreased flood. The farmers perceived that dry period salinity, flood and coastal inundations were the major products of climate change to adversely affect crop productivity. Since agricultural adaptation to climate change requires clear understanding of the climatic impacts on farm productivity, and more than one-third of the farmers failed to identify climatic impacts on decreased farm productivity, their improvement of climate change awareness is essential. Extension organizations and other agents should promote updated climate knowledge among farmers to make them more aware of climate change issues, so that they can adapt to climate change through their agricultural activities.
Kamrul Hasan; Lalit Kumar. Perceived farm-level climatic impacts on coastal agricultural productivity in Bangladesh. Climatic Change 2020, 161, 617 -636.
AMA StyleKamrul Hasan, Lalit Kumar. Perceived farm-level climatic impacts on coastal agricultural productivity in Bangladesh. Climatic Change. 2020; 161 (4):617-636.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKamrul Hasan; Lalit Kumar. 2020. "Perceived farm-level climatic impacts on coastal agricultural productivity in Bangladesh." Climatic Change 161, no. 4: 617-636.
How the current distribution of tea cultivation is influenced by specific environmental conditions in Sri Lanka is yet to be explored. Therefore, this study aims to assess the differences between tea and non-tea growing areas with respect to climatic and topographic covariates, and to determine the major covariates that control tea distributions. Climatic data of temperature and rainfall were extracted from WorldClim-Global Climate Data; the elevation, slopes, and aspects were obtained from Global Multi-resolution Terrain Elevation Data; and the solar radiation data was computed using a clear-sky solar radiation model. Random points were created on rasterised environmental layers for tea-growing and non-tea growing areas, stratified into low, mid, and high regions, using ArcGIS version 10.4.1 (Environmental Systems Research Institute: ESRI Redlands, CA, USA).Correlations were derived between covariates and tea and non-tea growing areas. According to the logistic regression analysis, there was no significant influence of the south-west, west, and north-west aspect compared to the north aspect when all other covariates were held constant. The odds ratio indicated that an area with a one-unit higher solar radiation was 1.453 times more likely to be a tea growing area. Similarly, a per unit increase in slope increases the likelihood of an area being suitable for tea cultivation by 1.039 times. When the annual mean temperature increased, the suitability of tea cultivation decreased, but an increased rainfall had increased the suitability of an area for tea cultivation. Areas with a north facing slope had the highest suitability for tea cultivation. This research demonstrated that tea growing could be expanded into a variety of locations as long as these variables are either found or managed in order to obtain the critical levels. In addition, it is proposed that the results of this study could be utilised in the assessment of the climate or/and land suitability for tea.
Sadeeka Layomi Jayasinghe; Lalit Kumar; Kamrul Hasan. Relationship between Environmental Covariates and Ceylon Tea Cultivation in Sri Lanka. Agronomy 2020, 10, 476 .
AMA StyleSadeeka Layomi Jayasinghe, Lalit Kumar, Kamrul Hasan. Relationship between Environmental Covariates and Ceylon Tea Cultivation in Sri Lanka. Agronomy. 2020; 10 (4):476.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSadeeka Layomi Jayasinghe; Lalit Kumar; Kamrul Hasan. 2020. "Relationship between Environmental Covariates and Ceylon Tea Cultivation in Sri Lanka." Agronomy 10, no. 4: 476.
Climate change is real and is considered to be impacting agricultural development in Bhutan. To authenticate this claim, a survey was conducted in six districts of Bhutan, representing low- , mid- and high-altitude regions of the country from March to May, 2019. Based on the current research, we present farmers’ perceptions of climate change and its impacts on agricultural production, including the different coping strategies prevalent in rural communities. The study found that the farmers were well aware of climate change, although perceptions varied among the respondents. For most of the farmers, climate change meant unpredictable weather (79%), less or no rain (70%) and drying of irrigation sources (55%). Some farmers referred to climate change as the emergence of diseases and pests (45%), high-intensity rains (30%), less or no snow (24%) and shorter winter (11%). These climate change impacts were assessed to be responsible for 10–20% crop damages, resulting in crop losses to the tune of 8079–16,159 t and 7202–14,405 t for rice and maize, respectively. This is likely to affect the already low domestic food production of the country. Additionally, the study has successfully captured information on climate change adaptation strategies applied by the farmers. The most commonly observed ones were: the use of plant protection chemicals, improved varieties, increasing frequency of irrigation, land fallowing, off-farm works and improved management practices. Findings such as these are important towards the identification and formulation of an integrated sustainable and climate-proof farming support system.
N. Chhogyel; L. Kumar; Yadunath Bajgai; Kamrul Hasan. Perception of farmers on climate change and its impacts on agriculture across various altitudinal zones of Bhutan Himalayas. International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 2020, 17, 3607 -3620.
AMA StyleN. Chhogyel, L. Kumar, Yadunath Bajgai, Kamrul Hasan. Perception of farmers on climate change and its impacts on agriculture across various altitudinal zones of Bhutan Himalayas. International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology. 2020; 17 (8):3607-3620.
Chicago/Turabian StyleN. Chhogyel; L. Kumar; Yadunath Bajgai; Kamrul Hasan. 2020. "Perception of farmers on climate change and its impacts on agriculture across various altitudinal zones of Bhutan Himalayas." International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 17, no. 8: 3607-3620.
This study compares the scientifically observed spatiotemporal climate variability with farmer perceptions. A survey of 381 farmers and ten focus group discussions (FGDs) were used to collect data from ten coastal subdistricts. We hypothesized that any gap between farmer perceptions and meteorological data could be due to variations in their individual characteristics. An unsupervised clustering algorithm was used to categorise the farmers into good and poor perception clusters to test the hypothesis. The climatic data showed a low (0.45 °C) spatial difference of the mean temperature (1988-2017) among the visited locations. Annual rainfall variations between the western and eastern coastal areas could be more than 100 cm, making the eastern coasts wetter. The FGD outputs were mostly cognate with meteorological data that the recent (2013-2017) average temperature was higher (except early winter) and, in general, rainfall was lower than that of 1998-2002. Compared to the meteorological data, greater imperfect perceptions of farmers were observed in case of rainfall and winter temperature. This resulted in a gap between the meteorological data and farmer perceptions at the household level. Among the sampled farmers, only 30% had meteorologically consistent perceptions of average-, summer- and winter-temperature, and rainfall. The cluster analysis has divided the farmers into good perception (41.2%) and poor perception (58.8%) clusters. Greater proportions of the western coastal farmers were clustered in the good perception group than that of the eastern parts. A higher accuracy of the perceptions was found among the better-off farmers who were characterized by younger age, better education, smaller family size, richer economic status, larger farm size, more affiliation with non-farm jobs, users of more communication media, closer to the marketplaces and more distant from the sea. The worse-off households, in particular, require policy and extension support to update their understanding of climate change to facilitate adaptation strategies.
Kamrul Hasan; Lalit Kumar. Meteorological data and farmers’ perception of coastal climate in Bangladesh. Science of The Total Environment 2020, 704, 135384 .
AMA StyleKamrul Hasan, Lalit Kumar. Meteorological data and farmers’ perception of coastal climate in Bangladesh. Science of The Total Environment. 2020; 704 ():135384.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKamrul Hasan; Lalit Kumar. 2020. "Meteorological data and farmers’ perception of coastal climate in Bangladesh." Science of The Total Environment 704, no. : 135384.
Kamrul Hasan; Lalit Kumar; Tharani Gopalakrishnan. Inundation modelling for Bangladeshi coasts using downscaled and bias-corrected temperature. Climate Risk Management 2020, 27, 1 .
AMA StyleKamrul Hasan, Lalit Kumar, Tharani Gopalakrishnan. Inundation modelling for Bangladeshi coasts using downscaled and bias-corrected temperature. Climate Risk Management. 2020; 27 ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKamrul Hasan; Lalit Kumar; Tharani Gopalakrishnan. 2020. "Inundation modelling for Bangladeshi coasts using downscaled and bias-corrected temperature." Climate Risk Management 27, no. : 1.
Climatic and non-climatic stressors, such as temperature increases, rainfall fluctuations, population growth and migration, pollution, land-use changes and inadequate gender-specific strategies, are major challenges to coastal agricultural sustainability. In this paper, we discuss all pertinent issues related to the sustainability of coastal agriculture under climate change. It is evident that some climate-change-related impacts (e.g., temperature and rainfall) on agriculture are similarly applicable to both coastal and non-coastal settings, but there are other factors (e.g., inundation, seawater intrusion, soil salinity and tropical cyclones) that particularly impact coastal agricultural sustainability. Coastal agriculture is characterised by low-lying and saline-prone soils where spatial competition with urban growth is an ever-increasing problem. We highlight how coastal agricultural viability could be sustained through blending farmer perceptions, adaptation options, gender-specific participation and integrated coastal resource management into policy ratification. This paper provides important aspects of the coastal agricultural sustainability, and it can be an inspiration for further research and coastal agrarian planning.
Tharani Gopalakrishnan; Kamrul Hasan; A T M Sanaul Haque; Sadeeka Jayasinghe; Lalit Kumar. Sustainability of Coastal Agriculture under Climate Change. Sustainability 2019, 11, 7200 .
AMA StyleTharani Gopalakrishnan, Kamrul Hasan, A T M Sanaul Haque, Sadeeka Jayasinghe, Lalit Kumar. Sustainability of Coastal Agriculture under Climate Change. Sustainability. 2019; 11 (24):7200.
Chicago/Turabian StyleTharani Gopalakrishnan; Kamrul Hasan; A T M Sanaul Haque; Sadeeka Jayasinghe; Lalit Kumar. 2019. "Sustainability of Coastal Agriculture under Climate Change." Sustainability 11, no. 24: 7200.
How farmers perceive climate change has an influence on how they adapt to climate change. Climate change perception and vulnerability were assessed based on the household survey information collected from randomly selected 118 farmers of Kalapara subdistrict in Bangladesh. This paper identified the socio-economic covariates of climate change perception and vulnerability in relation to agricultural adaptation. It was also determined whether their perception was consistent with meteorological information. Findings revealed that the farmers had a moderate level of perception of and vulnerability to climate change. An overwhelming majority (98%) of the respondents perceived a warmer summer and 96% of them observed a colder winter compared to the past. Among the farmers, 91% believed that rainfall had increased and 97% thought that the timing of rainfall had changed. The belief of increase in soil salinity and associated loss was prevailing among 98 and 99% of them, respectively. Observed climate data were mostly aligned with the farmers' perception with respect to temperature, rainfall, floods, droughts and salinity. Positive correlations were found among the perception of climate change, the perception of vulnerability and the number of adopted adaptation practices. Farmers' level of understanding of climate change, vulnerability and adaptation practices could be improved by involving them in different organizations, such as climate field school and farmer associations. It could accelerate the dissemination of agricultural adaptation practices among them to cope with adverse agricultural impacts of climate change.
Kamrul Hasan; Lalit Kumar. Comparison between meteorological data and farmer perceptions of climate change and vulnerability in relation to adaptation. Journal of Environmental Management 2019, 237, 54 -62.
AMA StyleKamrul Hasan, Lalit Kumar. Comparison between meteorological data and farmer perceptions of climate change and vulnerability in relation to adaptation. Journal of Environmental Management. 2019; 237 ():54-62.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKamrul Hasan; Lalit Kumar. 2019. "Comparison between meteorological data and farmer perceptions of climate change and vulnerability in relation to adaptation." Journal of Environmental Management 237, no. : 54-62.
Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is a suggested pathway to the improvement of food security in a changing climate. The Department of Agricultural Extension under the Bangladesh Ministry of Agriculture has been promoting CSA with farmers through climate field schools since 2010. This study investigated the impact of adoption of CSA practices on the household food security of coastal farmers in southern Bangladesh. Factors determining household food security were also explored. Data were collected from 118 randomly selected farmers of Kalapara sub-district in Patuakhali, Bangladesh. We identified 17 CSA practices that were adopted by the farmers in the study area. Those practices were saline-tolerant crop varieties, flood-tolerant crop varieties, drought-resistant crop varieties, early maturing rice, vegetables in a floating bed, ‘sorjan’ method of farming, pond-side vegetable cultivation, the cultivation of watermelon, sunflower or plum, relay cropping, urea deep placement, organic fertilizer, mulching, use of pheromone trap, rain water harvesting and seed storage in plastic bags or glass bottles. The farmers adopted on average seven out of these CSA practices. Among the sampled households, 32% were assessed as food secure, 51% were mildly to moderately food insecure and 17% were severely food insecure. Adoption of CSA practices was positively associated with household food security in terms of per capita annual food expenditure (β = 1.48 Euro, p = 0.015). Households with a better educational level, farming as a major occupation, a larger pond size, greater number of cattle, higher household income, smaller family size and less difficulty with access to markets were likely to be more food secure. Increasing the adoption of CSA was important to enhance food security but not a sufficient condition since other characteristics of the farmers (personal education, pond size, cattle ownership and market difficulty) had large effects on food security. Nevertheless, increased adoption of saline-tolerant and flood-tolerant crop varieties, pond-side vegetable cultivation and rainwater harvesting for irrigation could further improve the food security of coastal farmers in southern Bangladesh.
Kamrul Hasan; Sam Desiere; Marijke D’Haese; Lalit Kumar. Impact of climate-smart agriculture adoption on the food security of coastal farmers in Bangladesh. Food Security 2018, 10, 1073 -1088.
AMA StyleKamrul Hasan, Sam Desiere, Marijke D’Haese, Lalit Kumar. Impact of climate-smart agriculture adoption on the food security of coastal farmers in Bangladesh. Food Security. 2018; 10 (4):1073-1088.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKamrul Hasan; Sam Desiere; Marijke D’Haese; Lalit Kumar. 2018. "Impact of climate-smart agriculture adoption on the food security of coastal farmers in Bangladesh." Food Security 10, no. 4: 1073-1088.
Israt Jahan; A Sanua; A. T. M. Sanual Haque; Golam Rabbani Akanda; Kamrul Hasan. Assessing Empowerment of Farm Women: The Case of Barisal Sadar Upazila. Asian Journal of Agricultural Extension, Economics & Sociology 2016, 13, 1 -8.
AMA StyleIsrat Jahan, A Sanua, A. T. M. Sanual Haque, Golam Rabbani Akanda, Kamrul Hasan. Assessing Empowerment of Farm Women: The Case of Barisal Sadar Upazila. Asian Journal of Agricultural Extension, Economics & Sociology. 2016; 13 (4):1-8.
Chicago/Turabian StyleIsrat Jahan; A Sanua; A. T. M. Sanual Haque; Golam Rabbani Akanda; Kamrul Hasan. 2016. "Assessing Empowerment of Farm Women: The Case of Barisal Sadar Upazila." Asian Journal of Agricultural Extension, Economics & Sociology 13, no. 4: 1-8.