Present and prospective climate change will likely affect the hydrological cycle in sensitive areas, such as the Alps, thus impacting water-based activities. A most representative example is hydropower production, i.e., exploitation of water to produce energy. In the Italian Alps hydropower is strictly dependent upon water from snow and ice melt, and both are decreasing in response to global warming. Here, we study the effects of potential climate change scenarios at 2100 upon hydropower production from the Chavonne plant, in Valle d’Aosta region of Italy, a run-of-the-river (ROR) plant taking water from two high altitude glacierized catchments of Val di Cogne, and Valsavarenche. We use Poli-Hydro, a state-of-the-art hydrological model to mimic the hydrological budget of the area, including ice and snow melt share. Projections of the hydrological budget were built until 2100 by means of selected climate change scenarios, under proper downscaling. We used runs of three General Circulation Models (GCMs), EC-Earth, CCSM4, and ECHAM6.0 under three Representative Concentration Pathways RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 from AR5 of IPCC, and of their updated version under four Shared Socio-Economic Pathways SSP1 2.6, SSP2 4.5, SSP3 7.0, and SSP5 8.5 from AR6. We then assessed hydropower production changes against a recent control run CR period (2005–2015). Mean annual flow is estimated at 14.33 m³ s⁻¹ during CR, with ice melt contribution ca. 2%, and snow melt contribution ca. 44%. Ice cover in 2005 was estimated as 19.2 km², reaching in 2015, 9.93 km². Mean hydropower production was estimated at 153.72 GWh during the CR. Temperature would largely increase throughout the century (+0.93 °C on average at the half century, +2.45 °C at the end of the century). The ice covered area would be largely depleted (ca. −86%, −94% respectively), with reduced contribution of ice melt (0.23%, <0.1%, respectively) and snow melt (ca. 37%, 33%, respectively). Precipitation would show uncertain patterns, and hence incoming discharge at the plant would erratically vary (−29% to +24% half century, −27% to +59% end of century). Hydropower production displays a large dependence upon monthly discharge patterns, with mostly positive variations (+2.90% on average at half century, +6.95% on average at end of century), with its change driven by exceedance of plant’s capacity.

Ethiopia is growing fast, and the country has a dire need of energy. To avoid environmental damages, however, Ethiopia is looking for green energy polices, including hydropower exploitation, with large water availability (i.e., the Blue Nile, the greatest tributary of Nile river). Besides other dams on the Omo river, the GIBE family, Ethiopia is now building the largest hydropower plant of Africa, the GERD (Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam), on the Blue Nile river, leading to tensions between Ethiopia, and Egypt, due to potentially conflictive water management. In addition, present and prospective climate change may affect reservoirs’ operation, and this thereby is relevant for downstream water users, population, and environment. Here, we evaluated water management for the GERD, and GIBE III dams, under present, and future hydrological conditions until 2100. We used two models, namely, Poli-Hydro and Poli-Power, to describe (i) hydrological budget, and flow routing and (ii) optimal/maximum hydropower production from the two dams, under unconstrained (i.e., no release downstream besides MIF) and constrained (i.e., with fair release downstream) simulation. We then used climate change scenarios from the reports CMIP5/6 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) until 2100, to assess future hydropower production. Our results demonstrate that the filling phase of the GERD, particularly critical, have optimal filling time of 5 years or so. Stream flows at GERD could be greater than the present ones (control run CR) at half century (2050–2059), but there could be large decrease at the end of century (2090–2099). Energy production at half century may increase, and then decrease until the end of century. In GIBE III discharges would increase both at half century, and at the end of century, and so would energy production. Constrained, and unconstrained simulation provide in practice similar results, suggesting potential for shared water management in both plants.

The assessment of the effect of the electricity price on energy production is important when studying the profitability and benefits of energy systems. The demand and price of electricity depends upon societal and economic development, but it is subject to a seasonal, weather-dependent variability, and possibly to long-term variation under climate change. Here, we developed a methodology to model the energy demand and electricity price in response to gross domestic product (GDP), temperatures, and random factors, usable for the purpose of cost/benefit analysis of production systems. The method was applied to the case study of the Italian electricity market, showing acceptable capacity of modelling recently observed price fluctuations. Then, we gathered climate projections until 2100 from three global climate models of the IPCC AR5, under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, and we produced future scenarios of price fluctuations for two reference decades, half-century 2040–2049, and end-of-century 2090–2099. Our scenarios displayed a potential for the reduction of energy demand in winter, and an increase in summer and spring, and for the similarly-changing electricity price throughout the 21st century. We discuss the application of our model with the specific aim of the projection of future hydropower production, as controlled by climate, hydrology, demand, and price constraints, with examples from recent studies. Our results provide a tool for modelling the behaviour of energy systems based upon knowledge of external factors, usable for further investigation of energy systems, such as hydropower, and others, taking into account the key variables affecting energy production and energy price.

Snow gliding, a slow movement downhill of snow cover, is complex to forecast and model and yet is extremely important, because it drives snowpack dynamics in the pre-avalanching phase. Despite recent interest in this process and the development of some studies therein, this phenomenon is poorly understood and represents a major point of uncertainty for avalanche forecasting. This study presents a data-driven, physically based, time-dependent 1D model, Poli-Glide, able to predict the slow movement of snowpacks along a flow line at the daily scale. The objective of the work was to create a useful snow gliding model, requiring few, relatively easily available input data, by (i) modeling snowpack evolution from measured precipitation and air temperature, (ii) evaluating the rate and extent of movement of the snowpack in the gliding phase, and (iii) assessing fracture (i.e., avalanching) timing. Such a model could be then used to provide hazard assessment in areas subject to gliding, thereby, and subsequent avalanching. To do so, some simplifying assumptions were introduced, namely that (i) negligible traction stress occurs within soil, (ii) water percolation into snow occurs at a fixed rate, and (iii) the micro topography of soil is schematized according to a sinusoidal function in the absence of soil erosion. The proposed model was then applied to the “Torrent des Marais-Mont de La Saxe” site in Aosta Valley, monitored during the winters of 2010 and 2011, featuring different weather conditions. The results showed an acceptable capacity of the model to reproduce snowpack deformation patterns and the final snowpack’s displacement. Correlation analysis based upon observed glide rates further confirmed dependence against the chosen variables, thus witnessing the goodness of the model. The results could be a valuable starting point for future research aimed at including more complex parameterizations of the different processes that affect gliding.

The depiction of glaciers’ dynamics in the high altitudes of Himalaya and the hydrological fluxes therein is often limited. Although sparse seasonal (snow/ice) melt data may be available, dense precipitation networks are not available everywhere, and especially in the highest area, and the assessment of accumulation processes and mass balance may be difficult. Hydrological fluxes are little measured in the high altitudes, and few studies are available covering flow modeling and flow partitioning. Here, we investigate the snow accumulation, ice melt, and mass balance of West Khangri Nup (WKN) glacier (0.23 km², mean altitude 5494 m asl), which is a part of the Khumbu glacier in the Everest region, where information of precipitation and hydro-glaciological dynamics in the highest altitudes was made available recently in fulfillment of several research projects. Weather, glaciological, snow pits, hydrologic, and isotopic data gathered during field campaigns (2010–2014) on the glacier and at the EVK2CNR Pyramid site were used to (i) set up the Poli-Hydro glacio-hydrological model to describe ice and snow melt and hydrological flows from the glacier, and (ii) investigate seasonal snow dynamics on this high region of the glacier. Coupling ice ablation data and Poli-Hydro simulation for ca. 5 years (January 2010–June 2014), we estimate that the WKN depleted ca. −10.46 m of ice water equivalent per year m IWE year⁻¹ (i.e., annually ca. −2.32 meter of water equivalent per year m WE year⁻¹). Then, using snowpack density and isotopic (δ¹⁸O) profiles on the WKN, we demonstrate that the local snowpack is recent (Fall–Winter 2013–2014) and that significant snow accumulation did not occur recently, so this area has not been a significant one of accumulation recently. Analysis of recent snow cover from LANDSAT images also confirms snow dynamics as depicted. Our study presents original data and results, and it complements present studies covering glaciers’ mass balance as well as an investigation of accumulation zones in the Everest region and the Himalayas, which is also potentially helpful in the assessment of future dynamics under ongoing climate change.

Depiction of glaciers’ dynamics in the high altitudes of Himalaya, and hydrological fluxes therein is often limited, and yet necessary to assess their contribution to overall water budget in the downstream areas. Information about glaciers in these remote regions is often based on satellite data, which routinely document the retreat or advance of ice-covered areas, while volume changes are less easy to quantify, and require local assessment of weather, and hydrology. Here, we report investigation of snow accumulation, ice melt, and mass balance of the West Khangri Nup (WKN) glacier (mean altitude 5494 m a.s.l., 0.23 km2), a part of the Khumbu glacier in the Everest region. The glaciers of the area have experienced negative mass balances in the last three decades, and accordingly investigation of their recent, and prospective dynamics seems necessary. Weather, glaciological, snow pits, hydrologic, and isotopic data gathered during some field campaigns (2010-2014) on the glacier, and at the EVK2CNR pyramid site are used here to set up the Poli-Hydro glacio-hydrological model, to depict ice and snow melt and hydrological flows, and investigate seasonal snow dynamics on this high region of the glacier.   Coupling ice ablation data, and Poli-Hydro simulation for ca. 5 years (January 2010-June 2014), we estimated that WKN depleted ca. -10.46 m of ice water equivalent IWE (i.e. annually ca. -2.32 m IWEy-1). Using then snowpack density, and isotopic (δ18O) profiles on the WKN, we demonstrate that local snowpack during field surveys was recent (Fall-Winter 2013-2014), and that significant snow accumulation did not occur recently. Analysis of recent snow cover from LANDSAT images also confirms snow dynamics as depicted. We present original data and results, and complement present studies covering glaciers’ mass balance, and investigation of accumulation zones in the Everest region, and the Himalayas, also potentially helpful in the assessment of future dynamics under ongoing climate change.