We propose a simple relationship linking global sea-level variations on time scales of decades to centuries to global mean temperature. This relationship is tested on synthetic data from a global climate model for the past millennium and the next century. When applied to observed data of sea level and temperature for 1880–2000, and taking into account known anthropogenic hydrologic contributions to sea level, the correlation is >0.99, explaining 98% of the variance. For future global temperature scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report, the relationship projects a sea-level rise ranging from 75 to 190 cm for the period 1990–2100.

We present new sea-level reconstructions for the past 2100 y based on salt-marsh sedimentary sequences from the US Atlantic coast. The data from North Carolina reveal four phases of persistent sea-level change after correction for glacial isostatic adjustment. Sea level was stable from at least BC 100 until AD 950. Sea level then increased for 400 y at a rate of 0.6 mm/y, followed by a further period of stable, or slightly falling, sea level that persisted until the late 19th century. Since then, sea level has risen at an average rate of 2.1 mm/y, representing the steepest century-scale increase of the past two millennia. This rate was initiated between AD 1865 and 1892. Using an extended semiempirical modeling approach, we show that these sea-level changes are consistent with global temperature for at least the past millennium.

Analysis of Global Positioning System (GPS) data demonstrates that ongoing three-dimensional crustal deformation in Fennoscandia is dominated by glacial isostatic adjustment. Our comparison of these GPS observations with numerical predictions yields an Earth model that satisfies independent geologic constraints and bounds both the average viscosity in the upper mantle (5 × 10 ²⁰ to 1 × 10 ²¹ pascal seconds) and the elastic thickness of the lithosphere (90 to 170 kilometers). We combined GPS-derived radial motions with Fennoscandian tide gauge records to estimate a regional sea surface rise of 2.1 ± 0.3 mm/year. Furthermore, ongoing horizontal tectonic motions greater than ∼1 mm/year are ruled out on the basis of the GPS-derived three-dimensional crustal velocity field.