Human-induced climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation¹. Due to the complexity of runoff generation and the streamflow process, the historical impact of human-induced climate change on river flooding remains uncertain. Here, we address the question of whether anthropogenic climate change has altered the probability of the extreme river flood events for the period 1951–2010 based on simulated river discharge derived from large ensemble climate experiments with and without human-induced climate change. The results indicate that human-induced climate change altered the probabilities of 20 of the 52 analyzed flood events. Fourteen of these 20 flood events, which occurred mainly in Asia and South America, were very likely to have been enhanced by human-induced climate change due to an increase in heavy precipitation. Conversely, two flood events in North/South America and two flood events in Asia and two flood events in Europe were suppressed by human-induced climate change, perhaps as a result of lower snowfall. Human-induced climate change has enhanced flooding more prominently in recent years, providing important insights into potential adaptation strategies for river flooding.

Global land cover products have been created for global environmental studies by several institutions and organizations. The Global Mapping Project coordinated by the International Steering Committee for Global Mapping (ISCGM) has been periodically producing global land cover datasets asone of the eight basic global datasets. It has produced a new fifteen-second (approximately 500 m resolution at the equator) global land cover dataset – GLCNMO2013 (or GLCNMO version 3). This paper describes the method of producing GLCNMO2013. GLCNMO2013 has 20 land cover classes, and they were mapped by improved methods from GLCNMO version 2. In GLCNMO2013, five classes,which are urban, mangrove, wetland, snow/ice, and waterwere independently classified. The remaining 15 classes were divided into 4 groups and mapped individually by supervised classification. 2006 polygons of training data collected for GLCNMO2008 were used for supervised classification. In addition, about 3000 polygons of new training data were collected globally using Google Earth, MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) seasonal change patterns, existing regional land cover maps, and existing four global land cover products. The primary data of this product were Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data of 2013. GLCNMO2013 was validated at 1006 sampled points. The overall accuracy of GLCNMO2013 was 74.8%, and the overall accuracy for eight aggregated classes was 90.2%. The accuracy of the GLCNMO2013 was not improved compared with the GLCNMO2008 at heterogeneous land covers. It is necessary to prepare the training data for mosaic classes and heterogeneous land covers for improving the accuracy.

The ongoing increases in anthropogenic radiative forcing have changed the global water cycle and are expected to lead to more intense precipitation extremes and associated floods. However, given the limitations of observations and model simulations, evidence of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on past extreme river discharge is scarce. Here, a large ensemble numerical simulation revealed that 64% (14 of 22 events) of floods analyzed during 2010-2013 were affected by anthropogenic climate change. Four flood events in Asia, Europe, and South America were enhanced within the 90% likelihood range. Of eight snow-induced floods analyzed, three were enhanced and four events were suppressed, indicating that the effects of climate change are more likely to be seen in the snow-induced floods. A global-scale analysis of flood frequency revealed that anthropogenic climate change enhanced the occurrence of floods during 2010-2013 in wide area of northern Eurasia, part of northwestern India, and central Africa, while suppressing the occurrence of floods in part of northeastern Eurasia, southern Africa, central to eastern North America and South America. Since the changes in the occurrence of flooding are the results of several hydrological processes, such as snow melt and changes in seasonal and extreme precipitation, and because a climate change signal is often not detectable from limited observation records, large ensemble discharge simulation provides insights into anthropogenic effects on past fluvial floods.