The power prediction for photovoltaic (PV) power plants has significant importance for their grid connection. Due to PV power’s periodicity and non-stationary characteristics, traditional power prediction methods based on linear or time series models are no longer applicable. This paper presents a method combining the advantages of the wavelet decomposition (WD) and artificial neural network (ANN) to solve this problem. With the ability of ANN to address nonlinear relationships, theoretical solar irradiance and meteorological variables are chosen as the input of the hybrid model based on WD and ANN. The output power of the PV plant is decomposed using WD to separated useful information from disturbances. The ANNs are used to build the models of the decomposed PV output power. Finally, the outputs of the ANN models are reconstructed into the forecasted PV plant power. The presented method is compared with the traditional forecasting method based on ANN. The results shows that the method described in this paper needs less calculation time and has better forecasting precision.

Photovoltaic (PV) power station faults in the natural environment mainly occur in the PV array, and the accurate fault diagnosis is of particular significance for the safe and efficient PV power plant operation. The PV array’s electrical behavior characteristics under fault conditions is analyzed in this paper, and a novel PV array fault diagnosis method is proposed based on fuzzy C-mean (FCM) and fuzzy membership algorithms. Firstly, clustering analysis of PV array fault samples is conducted using the FCM algorithm, indicating that there is a fixed relationship between the distribution characteristics of cluster centers and the different fault, then the fault samples are classified effectively. The membership degrees of all fault data and cluster centers are then determined by the fuzzy membership algorithm for the final fault diagnosis. Simulation analysis indicated that the diagnostic accuracy of the proposed method was 96%. Field experiments further verified the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed method. In this paper, various types of fault distribution features are effectively identified by the FCM algorithm, whether the PV array operation parameters belong to the fault category is determined by fuzzy membership algorithm, and the advantage of the proposed method is it can classify the fault data from normal operating data without foreknowledge.

With the rapid development of wind power industry recently, huge data source are accumulated by the widespread Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition systems. The data-driven wind turbine power curve plays an important role in many fields whereas it is sensitive to data quality. The invalid and unnatural data need to be reasonably eliminated. Considering the complex influences to data records, probabilistic description is effective to represent the data uncertainty. Initially, raw data are preliminarily cleaned in the three-dimensional Copula space. On this basis, in divisional operation regions of the variable-pitch wind turbine, the weighted mixture of Archimedes Copula functions are estimated by expectation maximization to establish the joint probabilistic distribution. Then, the confidence boundary modeling procedure of WTPC is presented to identify abnormal data while an evaluation system is proposed for adaptive modeling with guaranteed performance. After outliers elimination by the boundary, a bi-directional Markov Chain interpolation method is proposed to recover consecutive missing data with optimized weights. Finally, the operation data from different wind turbines are processed and used for validation. The simulation results show that more accurate power curves and theoretical power can be obtained which suggests effectiveness of the proposed methods and their great application potential.

With the continuous increase of grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) installed capacity and the urgent demand of synergetic utilization with the other power generation forms, the high-precision prediction of PV power generation is increasingly important for the optimal scheduling and safe operation of the grid. In order to improve the power prediction accuracy, using the response characteristics of PV array under different environmental conditions, a data driven multi-model power prediction method for PV power generation is proposed, based on the seasonal meteorological features. Firstly, through the analysis of PV power characteristics in typical seasons and seasonal distribution of the weather factors, such as solar irradiance and ambient temperature, the influences of different weather factors on PV power prediction are studied. Then, according to the meteorology characteristics of Beijing, different seasons can be divided. The historical data corresponding to different seasons are acquired and then the seasonal PV power forecasting models are established based on optimized multi-layer back propagation neural network (BPNN), realizing the multi-model prediction of PV power. Finally, effectiveness of the seasonal PV power forecasting method is compared and validated. The performance analysis of the neural network forecasting model under typical seasonal conditions shows that the multi-model forecasting method based on seasonal characteristics of PV power generation is better than that of single power forecasting model for the whole year. The results show that the proposed method can effectively improve the power forecasting accuracy of PV power.