Many studies have highlighted breaks in mean values of temperature and precipitation time series since the 1970s. Given that temperatures have continued to increase following that decade, the first question addressed in this study is whether other breaks in mean values have occurred since that time. The second question is to determine which climate indices influence temperature and rainfall in the coastal region of Northern Algeria. To address these two questions, we analyzed the temporal variability of temperature and annual and seasonal rainfall as they relate to four climate indices at seven coastal stations in Algeria during the 1972–2013 period using the Mann–Kendall, Lombard, and canonical correlation (CC) analysis methods.The annual and seasonal maximum, minimum and mean temperatures increased significantly over that time period. Most of these increases are gradual, implying a slow warming trend. In contrast, total annual and seasonal rainfall did not show any significant change. CC analysis revealed that annual and seasonal temperatures are negatively correlated with the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMOI) climate index that characterizes atmospheric circulation over the Mediterranean basin. On the other hand, rainfall is positively correlated with a large-scale atmospheric index such as the Southern Oscillation Index.

This study aims to estimate hydrological drought risk using probabilistic analysis of bivariate drought characteristics to assess both past and future drought severity and duration in three basins located in the widest karst massif of northern Algeria. The procedures entail: (1) identification of extent of meteorological drought that could trigger corresponding hydrological drought through their characteristics; (2) assessment of future risk of extreme drought according to two emission scenarios of the representative concentration pathway (RCP 4.5 and 8.5); and (3) estimation of drought return periods using bivariate frequency analysis and investigation of their future change rates under climate change. Hydrological droughts were computed by using the bias-corrected future climate projections from nine global climate models downscaled using the Rossby Centre Regional Climate model (RCA4), and GR2M hydrological model. The analysis revealed a connection between meteorological and hydrological drought occurrences and the response time depended on the memory effect of the considered basin. We also found strong consensus between past drought event return periods, determined by bivariate frequency analysis, and those determined by climate models under RCP8.5 scenario. Finally, in regards to drought return periods (10, 50 and 100 years), the risk of extreme drought recurrence in the future has been projected to be larger than the reference period.