Pneumonia is the leading cause of death among children younger than 5 years. In this study, we estimated causes of pneumonia in young African and Asian children, using novel analytical methods applied to clinical and microbiological findings. We did a multi-site, international case-control study in nine study sites in seven countries: Bangladesh, The Gambia, Kenya, Mali, South Africa, Thailand, and Zambia. All sites enrolled in the study for 24 months. Cases were children aged 1-59 months admitted to hospital with severe pneumonia. Controls were age-group-matched children randomly selected from communities surrounding study sites. Nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal (NP-OP), urine, blood, induced sputum, lung aspirate, pleural fluid, and gastric aspirates were tested with cultures, multiplex PCR, or both. Primary analyses were restricted to cases without HIV infection and with abnormal chest x-rays and to controls without HIV infection. We applied a Bayesian, partial latent class analysis to estimate probabilities of aetiological agents at the individual and population level, incorporating case and control data. Between Aug 15, 2011, and Jan 30, 2014, we enrolled 4232 cases and 5119 community controls. The primary analysis group was comprised of 1769 (41·8% of 4232) cases without HIV infection and with positive chest x-rays and 5102 (99·7% of 5119) community controls without HIV infection. Wheezing was present in 555 (31·7%) of 1752 cases (range by site 10·6-97·3%). 30-day case-fatality ratio was 6·4% (114 of 1769 cases). Blood cultures were positive in 56 (3·2%) of 1749 cases, and Streptococcus pneumoniae was the most common bacteria isolated (19 [33·9%] of 56). Almost all cases (98·9%) and controls (98·0%) had at least one pathogen detected by PCR in the NP-OP specimen. The detection of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), parainfluenza virus, human metapneumovirus, influenza virus, S pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib), H influenzae non-type b, and Pneumocystis jirovecii in NP-OP specimens was associated with case status. The aetiology analysis estimated that viruses accounted for 61·4% (95% credible interval [CrI] 57·3-65·6) of causes, whereas bacteria accounted for 27·3% (23·3-31·6) and Mycobacterium tuberculosis for 5·9% (3·9-8·3). Viruses were less common (54·5%, 95% CrI 47·4-61·5 vs 68·0%, 62·7-72·7) and bacteria more common (33·7%, 27·2-40·8 vs 22·8%, 18·3-27·6) in very severe pneumonia cases than in severe cases. RSV had the greatest aetiological fraction (31·1%, 95% CrI 28·4-34·2) of all pathogens. Human rhinovirus, human metapneumovirus A or B, human parainfluenza virus, S pneumoniae, M tuberculosis, and H influenzae each accounted for 5% or more of the aetiological distribution. We observed differences in aetiological fraction by age for Bordetella pertussis, parainfluenza types 1 and 3, parechovirus-enterovirus, P jirovecii, RSV, rhinovirus, Staphylococcus aureus, and S pneumoniae, and differences by severity for RSV, S aureus, S pneumoniae, and parainfluenza type 3. The leading ten pathogens of each site accounted for 79% or more of the site's aetiological fraction. In our study, a small set of pathogens accounted for most cases of pneumonia requiring hospital admission. Preventing and treating a subset of pathogens could substantially affect childhood pneumonia outcomes. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

To aid decision making for pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) use in infant national immunization programs, we summarized the indirect effects of PCV on clinical outcomes among nontargeted age groups. We systematically reviewed the English literature on infant PCV dosing schedules published from 1994 to 2010 (with ad hoc addition of 2011 articles) for outcomes on children >5 years of age and adults including vaccine-type nasopharyngeal carriage (VT-NP), vaccine-type invasive pneumococcal disease (VT-IPD) and syndromic pneumonia. Of 12,980 citations reviewed, we identified 21 VT-IPD, 6 VT-NP and 9 pneumonia studies. Of these 36, 21 (58%) included 3 primary doses plus PCV or pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) booster schedule (3+1 or 3+PPV23), 5 (14%) 3+0, 9 (25%) 2+1 and 1 (3%) 2+0. Most (95%) were PCV7 studies. Among observational VT-IPD studies, all schedules (2+1, 3+0 and 3+1) demonstrated reductions in incidence among young adult groups. Among syndromic pneumonia observational studies (2+1, 3+0 and 3+1), only 3+1 schedules showed significant indirect impact. Of 2 VT-NP controlled trials (3+0 and 3+1) and 3 VT-NP observational studies (2+1, 3+1 and 3+PPV23), 3+1 and 3+PPV23 schedules showed significant indirect effect. The 1 study to directly compare between schedules was a VT-NP study (2+0 vs. 2+1), which found no indirect effect on older siblings and parents of vaccinated children with either schedule. Indirect benefit of a 3+1 infant PCV dosing schedule has been demonstrated for VT-IPD, VT-NP and syndromic pneumonia; 2+1 and 3+0 schedules have demonstrated indirect effect only for VT-IPD. The choice of optimal infant PCV schedule is limited by data paucity on indirect effects, especially a lack of head-to-head studies and studies of PCV10 and PCV13.

Pneumonia is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality among children <5 years of age globally. Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) are known to provide protection against vaccine serotype pneumococcal pneumonia; uncertainty exists regarding the optimum PCV dosing schedule. We conducted a systematic review of studies published from 1994 to 2010 (supplemented post hoc with studies from 2011) documenting the effect of PCV dosing schedules on clinical and radiologically confirmed pneumonia, pneumococcal pneumonia and empyema among children of ages targeted to receive vaccine. Data on 2- and 3-dose schedules were included. Percent change of pneumonia incidence rates from baseline to most recent year post-PCV introduction was calculated. We identified 42 primary citations that evaluated PCV schedules and pneumonia. Thirty-seven (88%) were from North America, Europe or Australia; 37 (88%) evaluated PCV7 and 1 (2%) PCV10. Two studies (both observational) compared multiple schedules within the study. We found evidence of reduced clinical and radiologically confirmed pneumonia incidence for all schedules, including 2+1 (1 nonrandomized trial, 5 observational studies), 3+0 (5 randomized trials, 2 observational studies) and 3+1 (5 clinical trials, 24 observational studies) schedules. The magnitude of disease impact did not differ among schedules. Evidence for impact on pneumococcal pneumonia and empyema varied. All schedules (2+1, 3+0 and 3+1) reduced clinical and radiologically confirmed pneumonia. Quantifying differences in pneumonia disease impact between schedules was difficult due to heterogeneity among studies in design, case definition and population. These findings support World Health Organization recommendations for 3-dose schedules administered as either 3+0 or 2+1 regimens. Pneumonia impact data are still needed on expanded serotype PCV products, developing country settings and the role for a booster dose.

Lack of a gold standard for identifying bacterial and viral etiologies of pneumonia has limited evaluation of C-reactive protein (CRP) for identifying bacterial pneumonia. We evaluated the sensitivity and specificity of CRP for identifying bacterial vs respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) pneumonia in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) multicenter case-control study. We measured serum CRP levels in cases with World Health Organization–defined severe or very severe pneumonia and a subset of community controls. We evaluated the sensitivity and specificity of elevated CRP for “confirmed” bacterial pneumonia (positive blood culture or positive lung aspirate or pleural fluid culture or polymerase chain reaction [PCR]) compared to “RSV pneumonia” (nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal or induced sputum PCR-positive without confirmed/suspected bacterial pneumonia). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed to assess the performance of elevated CRP in distinguishing these cases. Among 601 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)–negative tested controls, 3% had CRP ≥40 mg/L. Among 119 HIV-negative cases with confirmed bacterial pneumonia, 77% had CRP ≥40 mg/L compared with 17% of 556 RSV pneumonia cases. The ROC analysis produced an area under the curve of 0.87, indicating very good discrimination; a cut-point of 37.1 mg/L best discriminated confirmed bacterial pneumonia (sensitivity 77%) from RSV pneumonia (specificity 82%). CRP ≥100 mg/L substantially improved specificity over CRP ≥40 mg/L, though at a loss to sensitivity. Elevated CRP was positively associated with confirmed bacterial pneumonia and negatively associated with RSV pneumonia in PERCH. CRP may be useful for distinguishing bacterial from RSV-associated pneumonia, although its role in discriminating against other respiratory viral-associated pneumonia needs further study.

Previous studies suggested an association between upper airway pneumococcal colonization density and pneumococcal pneumonia, but data in children are limited. Using data from the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study, we assessed this potential association. PERCH is a case-control study in 7 countries: Bangladesh, The Gambia, Kenya, Mali, South Africa, Thailand, and Zambia. Cases were children aged 1–59 months hospitalized with World Health Organization–defined severe or very severe pneumonia. Controls were randomly selected from the community. Microbiologically confirmed pneumococcal pneumonia (MCPP) was confirmed by detection of pneumococcus in a relevant normally sterile body fluid. Colonization density was calculated with quantitative polymerase chain reaction analysis of nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal specimens. Median colonization density among 56 cases with MCPP (MCPP cases; 17.28 × 10⁶ copies/mL) exceeded that of cases without MCPP (non-MCPP cases; 0.75 × 10⁶) and controls (0.60 × 10⁶) (each P < .001). The optimal density for discriminating MCPP cases from controls using the Youden index was >6.9 log₁₀ copies/mL; overall, the sensitivity was 64% and the specificity 92%, with variable performance by site. The threshold was lower (≥4.4 log₁₀ copies/mL) when MCPP cases were distinguished from controls who received antibiotics before specimen collection. Among the 4035 non-MCPP cases, 500 (12%) had pneumococcal colonization density >6.9 log₁₀ copies/mL; above this cutoff was associated with alveolar consolidation at chest radiography, very severe pneumonia, oxygen saturation <92%, C-reactive protein ≥40 mg/L, and lack of antibiotic pretreatment (all P< .001). Pneumococcal colonization density >6.9 log₁₀ copies/mL was strongly associated with MCPP and could be used to improve estimates of pneumococcal pneumonia prevalence in childhood pneumonia studies. Our findings do not support its use for individual diagnosis in a clinical setting.

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) are being implemented globally using a variety of different schedules. The optimal schedule to maximize protection of vaccinated children against vaccine-type invasive pneumococcal disease (VT-IPD) is not known. To assess the relative benefit of various PCV dosing schedules, we conducted a systematic review of studies published in English from 1994 to 2010 (supplemented post hoc with studies from 2011) on PCV effectiveness against VT-IPD among children targeted to receive vaccine. Data on 2-dose and 3-dose primary series, both with and without a booster ("2+0," "2+1," "3+0" and "3+1"), were included. For observational studies using surveillance data or case counts, we calculated percentage reduction in VT-IPD before and after PCV introduction. Of 4 randomized controlled trials and 31 observational studies reporting VT-IPD among young children, none evaluated a 2+0 complete series, 7 (19%) evaluated 2+1, 4 (11%) 3+0 and 27 (75%) 3+1. Most (86%) studies were from North America or Europe. Only 1 study (observational) directly compared 2 schedules (3+0 vs. 3+1); results supported the use of a booster dose. In clinical trials, vaccine efficacy ranged from 65% to 71% with 3+0 and 83% to 94% with 3+1. Surveillance data and case counts demonstrate reductions in VT-IPD of up to 100% with 2+1 (6 studies) or 3+1 (17 studies) schedules and up to 90% with 3+0 (2 studies). Reductions were observed as early as 1 year after PCV introduction. These data support the use of 2+1, 3+0 and 3+1 schedules, although most data of PCV impact on VT-IPD among young children are from high-income countries using 3+1. Differences between schedules for impact on VT-IPD are difficult to discern based on available data.