Breast cancer is the most common cancer in women worldwide, with a great diversity in outcomes among individual patients. The ability to accurately predict a breast cancer outcome is important to patients, physicians, researchers, and policy makers. Many models have been developed and tested in different settings. We systematically reviewed the prognostic models developed and/or validated for patients with breast cancer. We conducted a systematic search in four electronic databases and some oncology websites, and a manual search in the bibliographies of the included studies. We identified original studies that were published prior to 1st January 2017, and presented the development and/or validation of models based mainly on clinico-pathological factors to predict mortality and/or recurrence in female breast cancer patients. From the 96 articles selected from 4095 citations found, we identified 58 models, which predicted mortality (n = 28), recurrence (n = 23), or both (n = 7). The most frequently used predictors were nodal status (n = 49), tumour size (n = 42), tumour grade (n = 29), age at diagnosis (n = 24), and oestrogen receptor status (n = 21). Models were developed in Europe (n = 25), Asia (n = 13), North America (n = 12), and Australia (n = 1) between 1982 and 2016. Models were validated in the development cohorts (n = 43) and/or independent populations (n = 17), by comparing the predicted outcomes with the observed outcomes (n = 55) and/or with the outcomes estimated by other models (n = 32), or the outcomes estimated by individual prognostic factors (n = 8). The most commonly used methods were: Cox proportional hazards regression for model development (n = 32); the absolute differences between the predicted and observed outcomes (n = 30) for calibration; and C-index/AUC (n = 44) for discrimination. Overall, the models performed well in the development cohorts but less accurately in some independent populations, particularly in patients with high risk and young and elderly patients. An exception is the Nottingham Prognostic Index, which retains its predicting ability in most independent populations. Many prognostic models have been developed for breast cancer, but only a few have been validated widely in different settings. Importantly, their performance was suboptimal in independent populations, particularly in patients with high risk and in young and elderly patients.

Cycling has the potential to provide health, environmental and economic benefits but the level of cycling is very low in New Zealand and many other countries. Adverse weather is often cited as a reason why people do not cycle. This study investigated temporal and seasonal variability in cycle volume and its association with weather in Auckland, New Zealand's largest city.

Background: Some endogenous hormones have been associated with breast cancer risk, but the nature of these relationships is not fully understood. Methods: UK Biobank was used. Hormone concentrations were measured in serum collected in 2006–2010, and in a repeat subsample (N ~ 5000) in 2012–13. Incident cancers were identified through data linkage. Cox regression models were used, and hazard ratios (HRs) corrected for regression dilution bias. Results: Among 30,565 pre-menopausal and 133,294 post-menopausal women, 527 and 2,997, respectively, were diagnosed with invasive breast cancer during a median follow-up of 7.1 years. Cancer risk was positively associated with testosterone in post-menopausal women (HR per 0.5 nmol/L increment: 1.18; 95% CI: 1.14, 1.23) but not in pre-menopausal women (p_{heterogeneity} = 0.03), and with IGF-1 (insulin-like growth factor-1) (HR per 5 nmol/L increment: 1.18; 1.02, 1.35 (pre-menopausal) and 1.07; 1.01, 1.12 (post-menopausal); p_{heterogeneity} = 0.2), and inversely associated with SHBG (sex hormone-binding globulin) (HR per 30 nmol/L increment: 0.96; 0.79, 1.15 (pre-menopausal) and 0.89; 0.84, 0.94 (post-menopausal); p_{heterogeneity} = 0.4). Oestradiol, assessed only in pre-menopausal women, was not associated with risk, but there were study limitations for this hormone. Conclusions: This study confirms associations of testosterone, IGF-1 and SHBG with breast cancer risk, with heterogeneity by menopausal status for testosterone.

Background: The risk of injury is one of the major barriers to engaging in cycling. We investigated exposure-based rates and profiles of traffic injuries sustained by pedal cyclists that resulted in death or hospital inpatient treatment in New Zealand, one of the most car dependent countries. Methods: Pedal cyclist traffic injuries were identified from the Mortality Collection and the National Minimum Dataset. Total time spent cycling was used as the measure of exposure and computed from National Household Travel Surveys. Analyses were undertaken for the periods 1988-91, 1996-99 and 2003-07 in relation to other major road users and by age, gender and body region affected. A modified Barell matrix was used to characterise the profiles of pedal cyclist injuries by body region affected and nature of injury. Results: Cyclists had the second highest rate of traffic injuries compared to other major road user categories and the rate increased from 1996-99 to 2003-07. During 2003-07, 31 injuries occurred per million hours spent cycling. Non-collision crashes (40%) and collisions with a car, pick-up truck or van (26%) accounted for two thirds of the cycling injuries. Children and adolescents aged under 15 years were at the highest risk, particularly of non-collision crashes. The rate of traumatic brain injuries fell from 1988-91 to 1996-99; however, injuries to other body parts increased steadily. Traumatic brain injuries were most common in collision cases whereas upper extremity fractures were most common in other crashes. Conclusions: The burden of fatal and hospitalised injuries among pedal cyclists is considerable and has been increasing over the last decade. This underscores the development of road safety and injury prevention programmes for cyclists alongside the cycling promotion strategies.

New Zealand has major ethnic disparities in breast cancer survival with Māori (indigenous people) and Pacific women (immigrants or descended from immigrants from Pacific Islands) faring much worse than other ethnic groups. This paper identified underlying factors and assessed their relative contribution to this risk differential. This study involved all women who were diagnosed with primary invasive breast cancer in two health regions, covering about 40% of the national population, between January 2000 and June 2014. Māori and Pacific patients were compared with other ethnic groups in terms of demographics, mode of diagnosis, disease factors and treatment factors. Cox regression modelling was performed with stepwise adjustments, and hazards of excess mortality from breast cancer for Māori and Pacific patients were assessed. Of the 13,657 patients who were included in this analysis, 1281 (9.4%) were Māori, and 897 (6.6%) were Pacific women. Compared to other ethnic groups, they were younger, more likely to reside in deprived neighbourhoods and to have co-morbidities, and less likely to be diagnosed through screening and with early stage cancer, to be treated in a private care facility, to receive timely cancer treatment, and to receive breast conserving surgery. They had a higher risk of excess mortality from breast cancer (age and year of diagnosis adjusted hazard ratio: 1.76; 95% CI: 1.51–2.04 for Māori and 1.97; 95% CI: 1.67–2.32 for Pacific women), of which 75% and 99% respectively were explained by baseline differences. The most important contributor was late stage at diagnosis. Other contributors included neighbourhood deprivation, mode of diagnosis, type of health care facility where primary cancer treatment was undertaken and type of loco-regional therapy. Late diagnosis, deprivation and differential access to and quality of cancer care services were the key contributors to ethnic disparities in breast cancer survival in New Zealand. Our findings underscore the need for a greater equity focus along the breast cancer care pathway, with an emphasis on improving access to early diagnosis for Māori and Pacific women.

To estimate the incidence and risk of medically or police attended bicycle crashes in a prospective cohort study in New Zealand. The Taupo Bicycle Study involved 2590 adult cyclists recruited from the country's largest cycling event in 2006 and followed over a median period of 4.6 years through linkage to four administrative databases. Incidence rates with Poisson distribution confidence intervals were computed and Cox regression modelling for repeated events was performed. The 66 on-road crashes and 10 collisions per 1000 person-years corresponded to 240 crashes and 38 collisions per million hours spent road cycling. The risk increased by 6% and 8% respectively for an extra cycling hour each week. There were 50 off-road crashes per 1000 person-years. Residing in urban areas and in Auckland (region with the lowest level of cycling), riding in a bunch, using a road bike and experiencing a previous crash predicted a higher risk. Habitual use of conspicuity aids appeared to lower the risk. The risk is higher in urban areas and where cycling is less common, and increased by bunch riding and previous crashes. These findings alongside the possible protective effect of conspicuity aids suggest promising approaches to improving cycle safety.