Earlier spring leaf unfolding is a frequently observed response of plants to climate warming. Many deciduous tree species require chilling for dormancy release, and warming-related reductions in chilling may counteract the advance of leaf unfolding in response to warming. Empirical evidence for this, however, is limited to saplings or twigs in climate-controlled chambers. Using long-term in situ observations of leaf unfolding for seven dominant European tree species at 1,245 sites, here we show that the apparent response of leaf unfolding to climate warming (ST, expressed in days advance of leaf unfolding per [deg]C warming) has significantly decreased from 1980 to 2013 in all monitored tree species. Averaged across all species and sites, ST decreased by 40% from 4.0 [plusmn] 1.8 days [deg]C-1 during 1980-1994 to 2.3 [plusmn] 1.6 days [deg]C-1 during 1999-2013. The declining ST was also simulated by chilling-based phenology models, albeit with a weaker decline (24-30%) than observed in situ. The reduction in ST is likely to be partly attributable to reduced chilling. Nonetheless, other mechanisms may also have a role, such as /`photoperiod limitation/' mechanisms that may become ultimately limiting when leaf unfolding dates occur too early in the season. Our results provide empirical evidence for a declining ST, but also suggest that the predicted strong winter warming in the future may further reduce ST and therefore result in a slowdown in the advance of tree spring phenology.

Recent temperature increases have elicited strong phenological shifts in temperate tree species, with subsequent effects on photosynthesis. Here, we assess the impact of advanced leaf flushing in a winter warming experiment on the current year’s senescence and next year’s leaf flushing dates in two common tree species: Quercus robur L. and Fagus sylvatica L. Results suggest that earlier leaf flushing translated into earlier senescence, thereby partially offsetting the lengthening of the growing season. Moreover, saplings that were warmed in winter–spring 2009–2010 still exhibited earlier leaf flushing in 2011, even though the saplings had been exposed to similar ambient conditions for almost 1 y. Interestingly, for both species similar trends were found in mature trees using a long-term series of phenological records gathered from various locations in Europe. We hypothesize that this long-term legacy effect is related to an advancement of the endormancy phase (chilling phase) in response to the earlier autumnal senescence. Given the importance of phenology in plant and ecosystem functioning, and the prediction of more frequent extremely warm winters, our observations and postulated underlying mechanisms should be tested in other species.

One hundred years ago, Andrew D. Hopkins estimated the progressive delay in tree leaf-out with increasing latitude, longitude, and elevation, referred to as “Hopkins’ bioclimatic law.” What if global warming is altering this well-known law? Here, based on ∼20,000 observations of the leaf-out date of four common temperate tree species located in 128 sites at various elevations in the European Alps, we found that the elevation-induced phenological shift (EPS) has significantly declined from 34 d⋅1,000 m ⁻¹ conforming to Hopkins’ bioclimatic law in 1960, to 22 d⋅1,000 m ⁻¹ in 2016, i.e., −35%. The stronger phenological advance at higher elevations, responsible for the reduction in EPS, is most likely to be connected to stronger warming during late spring as well as to warmer winter temperatures. Indeed, under similar spring temperatures, we found that the EPS was substantially reduced in years when the previous winter was warmer. Our results provide empirical evidence for a declining EPS over the last six decades. Future climate warming may further reduce the EPS with consequences for the structure and function of mountain forest ecosystems, in particular through changes in plant–animal interactions, but the actual impact of such ongoing change is today largely unknown.

Temperate climates are defined by a distinct temperature seasonality with large and often unpredictable weather during any of the four seasons. To thrive in such climates, trees have to withstand a cold winter and the stochastic occurrence of freeze events during any time of the year. The physiological mechanisms trees adopt to escape, avoid and tolerate freezing temperatures include a cold acclimation in autumn, a dormancy period during winter (leafless in deciduous trees), and the maintenance of a certain freezing tolerance during dehardening in early spring. The change from one phase to the next is mediated by complex interactions between temperature and photoperiod. This review aims at providing an overview of the interplay between phenology of leaves and species-specific freezing resistance. First, we address the long-term evolutionary responses that enabled temperate trees to tolerate certain low temperature extremes. We provide evidence that short term acclimation of freezing resistance plays a crucial role both in dormant and active buds, including re-acclimation to cold conditions following warm spells. This ability declines to almost zero during leaf emergence. Second, we show that the risk that native temperate trees encounter freeze injuries is low and is confined to spring and underline that this risk might be altered by climate warming depending on species-specific phenological responses to environmental cues.