In the last decade, the Climate Limited-area Modeling Community (CLM-Community) has contributed to the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) with an extensive set of regional climate simulations. Using several versions of the COSMO-CLM-Community model, ERA-Interim reanalysis and eight global climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were dynamically downscaled with horizontal grid spacings of 0.44∘ (∼ 50 km), 0.22∘ (∼ 25 km), and 0.11∘ (∼ 12 km) over the CORDEX domains Europe, South Asia, East Asia, Australasia, and Africa. This major effort resulted in 80 regional climate simulations publicly available through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) web portals for use in impact studies and climate scenario assessments. Here we review the production of these simulations and assess their results in terms of mean near-surface temperature and precipitation to aid the future design of the COSMO-CLM model simulations. It is found that a domain-specific parameter tuning is beneficial, while increasing horizontal model resolution (from 50 to 25 or 12 km grid spacing) alone does not always improve the performance of the simulation. Moreover, the COSMO-CLM performance depends on the driving data. This is generally more important than the dependence on horizontal resolution, model version, and configuration. Our results emphasize the importance of performing regional climate projections in a coordinated way, where guidance from both the global (GCM) and regional (RCM) climate modeling communities is needed to increase the reliability of the GCM–RCM modeling chain.
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are two well-known temporal oscillations in sea surface temperature (SST), which are both thought to influence the interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). Until now, there has been no measure to assess the simultaneous information exchange (IE) from both ENSO and IOD to ISMR. This study explores the information exchange from two source variables (ENSO and IOD) to one target (ISMR). First, in order to illustrate the concepts and quantification of two-source IE to a target, we use idealized test cases consisting of linear and nonlinear dynamical systems. Our results show that these systems exhibit net synergy (i.e., the combined influence of two sources on a target is greater than the sum of their individual contributions), even with uncorrelated sources in both the linear and nonlinear systems. We test IE quantification with various estimators (linear, kernel, and Kraskov estimators) for robustness. Next, the two-source IE from ENSO and IOD to ISMR is investigated in observations, reanalysis, three global climate model (GCM) simulations, and three nested higher-resolution simulations using a regional climate model (RCM). This (1) quantifies IE from ENSO and IOD to ISMR in the natural system and (2) applies IE in the evaluation of the GCM and RCM simulations. The results show that both ENSO and IOD contribute to ISMR interannual variability. Interestingly, significant net synergy is noted in the central parts of the Indian subcontinent, which is India's monsoon core region. This indicates that both ENSO and IOD are synergistic predictors in the monsoon core region. But, they share significant net redundant information in the southern part of the Indian subcontinent. The IE patterns in the GCM simulations differ substantially from the patterns derived from observations and reanalyses. Only one nested RCM simulation IE pattern adds value to the corresponding GCM simulation pattern. Only in this case does the GCM simulation show realistic SST patterns and moisture transport during the various ENSO and IOD phases. This confirms, once again, the importance of the choice of GCM in driving a higher-resolution RCM. This study shows that two-source IE is a useful metric that helps in better understanding the climate system and in process-oriented climate model evaluation.
A refactored atmospheric dynamical core of the ICON model implemented in GT4Py, a Python-based domain-specific language designed for performance portability across heterogeneous CPU-GPU architectures, is presented. Integrated within the existing Fortran infrastructure, the new GT4Py dynamical core is shown to exceed ICON OpenACC performance. A multi-tiered testing strategy has been implemented to ensure numerical correctness and scientific reliability of the model code. Validation has been performed through global aquaplanet and prescribed sea-surface temperature simulations to demonstrate model's capability to simulate mesoscale and its interaction with the larger-scale at km-scale grid spacing. This work establishes a foundation for architecture-agnostic ICON global climate and weather model, and highlights poor strong scaling as a potential bottleneck in scaling toward exascale performance.
Often in climate system studies, linear and symmetric statistical measures are applied to quantify interactions among subsystems or variables. However, they do not allow identification of the driving and responding subsystems. Therefore, in this study, we aimed to apply asymmetric measures from information theory: the axiomatically proposed transfer entropy and the first principle-based information flow to detect and quantify climate interactions. As their estimations are challenging, we initially tested nonparametric estimators like transfer entropy (TE)-binning, TE-kernel, and TE k-nearest neighbor and parametric estimators like TE-linear and information flow (IF)-linear with idealized two-dimensional test cases along with their sensitivity on sample size. Thereafter, we experimentally applied these methods to the Lorenz-96 model and to two real climate phenomena, i.e., (1) the Indo-Pacific Ocean coupling and (2) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)–European air temperature coupling. As expected, the linear estimators work for linear systems but fail for strongly nonlinear systems. The TE-kernel and TE k-nearest neighbor estimators are reliable for linear and nonlinear systems. Nevertheless, the nonparametric methods are sensitive to parameter selection and sample size. Thus, this work proposes a composite use of the TE-kernel and TE k-nearest neighbor estimators along with parameter testing for consistent results. The revealed information exchange in Lorenz-96 is dominated by the slow subsystem component. For real climate phenomena, expected bidirectional information exchange between the Indian and Pacific SSTs was detected. Furthermore, expected information exchange from NAO to European air temperature was detected, but also unexpected reversal information exchange. The latter might hint to a hidden process driving both the NAO and European temperatures. Hence, the limitations, availability of time series length and the system at hand must be taken into account before drawing any conclusions from TE and IF-linear estimations.
In the last decade, the Climate Limited-area Modeling (CLM) Community has contributed to the Coordinated Re- gional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) with an extensive set of regional climate simulations. Using several versions of the COSMO-CLM community model, ERA-Interim reanalysis and eight Global Climate Models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were dynamically downscaled with horizontal grid spacings of 0.44° (∼50 km), 0.22° (∼25 km) and 0.11° (∼12 km) over the CORDEX domains Europe, South Asia, East Asia, Australasia and Africa. This major effort resulted in 80 regional climate simulations publicly available through the Earth System Grid Fed- eration (ESGF) web portals for use in impact studies and climate scenario assessments. Here we review the production of these simulations and assess their results in terms of mean near-surface temperature and precipitation to aid the future design of the COSMO-CLM model simulations. It is found that a domain-specific parameter tuning is beneficial, while increasing horizontal model resolution (from 50 to 25 or 12 km grid spacing) alone does not always improve the performance of the simulation. Moreover, the COSMO-CLM performance depends on the driving data. This is generally more important than the dependence on horizontal resolution, model version and configuration. Our results emphasize the importance of performing regional climate projections in a coordinated way, where guidance from both the global (GCM) and regional (RCM) climate modelling communities is needed to increase the reliability of the GCM-RCM modelling chain.