The Mann-Kendall test, used to detect a trend in a time series, yields an incorrect (too large) rejection rate when applied to an autocorrelated series with no trend. Prewhitening corrects this sit... Le test de Mann-Kendall, employé pour détecter une tendance dans une série temporelle, présente un taux de rejet incorrect (trop grand) lorsqu'il est appliqué à une série auto-corrélée sans tendanc...

Estimation of drought characteristics such as probabilities and return periods of droughts of various lengths is of major importance in drought forecast and management and in solving water resources problems related to water quality and navigation. This study aims at applying first- and second-order Markov chain models to dry and wet periods of annual streamflow series to reproduce the stochastic structure of hydrological droughts. Statistical evaluation of drought duration and intensity is usually carried out using runs analysis. First-order Markov chain model (MC1) for dry and wet periods is not adequate when autocorrelation of the original hydrological series is high. A second-order Markov chain model (MC2) is proposed to estimate the probabilities and return periods of droughts. Results of these models are compared with those of a simulation study assuming a lag-1 autoregressive [AR(1)] process widely used to model annual streamflows. Probability distribution and return periods of droughts of various lengths are estimated and compared with the results of MC1 and MC2 models using efficacy evaluation statistics. It is found that the MC2 model in general gives results that are in better agreement with simulation results as compared with the MC1 model. Skewness is found to have little effect on return periods except when autocorrelation is very high. MC1 and MC2 models are applied to droughts observed in some annual streamflow series, with the result that the MC2 model has a relatively good agreement considering the limited duration of the records.

This study attempts to find out the best-fit probability distribution function to low flows using the up-to-date data of intermittent and non-intermittent rivers in four hydrological basins from different regions in Turkey. Frequency analysis of D = 1, 7, 14, 30, 90 and 273-day low flows calculated from the daily flow time series of each stream gauge was performed. Weibull (W2), Gamma (G2), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Log-Normal (LN2) are selected among the 2-parameter probability distribution functions together with the Weibull (W3), Gamma (G3) and Log-Normal (LN3) from the 3-parameter probability distribution functions family. Selected probability distribution functions are checked for their suitability to fit each D-day low flow sequence. LN3 mostly conforms low flows by being the best-fit among the selected probability distribution functions in three out of four hydrological basins while W3 fits low flows in one basin. With the use of the best-fit probability distribution function, the low flow-duration-frequency curves are determined which has the ability to provide the end-users with any D-day low flow discharge of any given return period.

In this study, a comparative evaluation of the statistical methods for daily streamflow estimation at ungauged basins is presented. The single donor station drainage area ratio (DAR) method, the multiple-donor stations drainage area ratio (MDAR) method, the inverse similarity weighted (ISW) method, and its variations with three different power parameters (1, 2, and 3) are applied to the two main subbasins of the Euphrates Basin in Turkey to estimate daily streamflow data. Each station in each basin is considered in turn as the target station where there are no streamflow data. The donor stations are selected based on the physical similarities between the donor and target stations. Then, streamflow data from the most physically similar donor station(s) is transferred to the target station using the statistical methods. In addition, the effect of data preprocessing on the estimation performance of the statistical methods is investigated. The preprocessing discussed in this study is streamflow data smoothing using the two-sided moving average (MA). Three statistical methods using the smoothed data by the MA, named as DAR-MA, MDAR-MA, and ISW-MA, are proposed. The estimation performance of the statistical methods is compared by using daily streamflow data with preprocessing and without preprocessing. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), the ratio of the root mean square error (RMSE) to the standard deviation of the observed data (RSR), the percent bias (PBIAS), and the coefficient of determination (R²) are used to evaluate the performance of the statistical methods. The results show that MDAR and ISW give improved performances compared to DAR to estimate daily streamflow for 7 out of 8 target stations in the Middle Euphrates Basin and for 4 out of 7 target stations in the Upper Euphrates Basin. Higher NSE values for both MDAR and ISW are mostly obtained with the three most physically similar donor stations in the Middle Euphrates Basin and with the two most physically similar donor stations in the Upper Euphrates Basin. The best statistical method for each target station exhibits slightly greater NSE when the smoothed data by the MA is used for all target stations in the Middle Euphrates Basin and for 6 out of 7 target stations in the Upper Euphrates Basin.

In this study, it was aimed to investigate applicability of various statistical estimation methods for Porsuk River basin, which has sparse streamflow observations. Estimations were performed using regression, single and multiple donor stations based drainage area ratio, standardization with mean (SM), standardization with mean and standard deviation (SMS), inverse distance weighted methods. Two seperate studies were conducted for both partially missing data and completely missing data. In order to estimate streamflow statistics for use in SM and SMS methods, logarithmic regression equations were suggested. The promising results obtained from ensemble approaches will provide a significant hydrological contribution to streamflow estimations.