Family farmers face various business risks, including natural disasters, policies, technology adoption, and market uncertainties. This paper develops a conceptual framework for the formation mechanism of family farmers’ business adaptation behaviors by linking “risk perception, key beliefs, and adaptation behavior”. Using microdata from 363 family farmers in Sichuan Province, China, and applying ordered logit model regression analysis, we find that both risk perception and key beliefs positively influence family farmers’ business adaptation behavior. Key beliefs partially mediate this relationship, while risk preference negatively moderates the effect of risk perception on business adaptation behavior. Additionally, family farmers with higher farm profit levels and larger social networks are more likely to engage in business adaptation behavior. Family farmers who have higher education, are older, operate larger-scale farms, and are male exhibit stronger risk perceptions.

Chinese family farms are continuously expanding; they are also facing various business risks that lead to a shorter lifespan. This paper constructed a family farm business risk assessment model that combined a hesitant fuzzy linguistic term sets (HFLTS) model with a hesitant fuzzy weighted average (HFWA) operator. On the basis of the factor analysis, this study built a family farm indicator system that included the natural, technical, market, policy, society, and management risk. The HFLTS was used for the assessment of weights in pairwise comparison matrices, and the HFWA operator was used as an aggregation operator to calculate the business risk score of family farms. For our case study, a method comparison analysis was also performed to check the validity of the results obtained by our risk assessment model.