In recent years, global attention to carbon emissions has increased, becoming one of the main drivers of global climate change. Accurate prediction of carbon emission trends in small and medium-sized countries and scientific regulation of carbon emissions can provide theoretical support and policy references for the effective and rational use of energy and the promotion of the coordinated development of energy, environment, and economy. This paper establishes a grey prediction model using the classical Logistic mathematical model in a determined environment to investigate the carbon emission system. At the same time, we use the basic principle of fractional-order accumulation to establish a grey prediction model with fractional-order Logistic and obtain the parameter estimation and time-response equation of the new model by solving the model through the theory related to fractional-order operators. The particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to complete the optimization process of the order of the fractional order grey prediction model and obtain the optimal model order. Then, the new model is applied to predict carbon emissions in five medium-emission countries: Ethiopia, Djibouti, Ghana, Belgium, and Austria. The new model shows better advantages in the validity analysis process, and the simulation results indicate that the new model proposed in this paper has stronger stability and better simulation and prediction accuracy than other comparative models, proving the model’s validity. Finally, the model is used to forecast the carbon emissions of these five countries for the five years of 2021–2025, and the results are analyzed, and relevant policy recommendations are made.

Recently, with the popularization of intelligent terminals, research on intelligent big data has been paid more attention. Among these data, a kind of intelligent big data with functional characteristics, which is called functional data, has attracted attention. Functional data principal component analysis (FPCA), as an unsupervised machine learning method, plays a vital role in the analysis of functional data. FPCA is the primary step for functional data exploration, and the reliability of FPCA plays an important role in subsequent analysis. However, classical L2-norm functional data principal component analysis (L2-norm FPCA) is sensitive to outliers. Inspired by the multivariate data L1-norm principal component analysis methods, we propose an L1-norm functional data principal component analysis method (L1-norm FPCA). Because the proposed method utilizes L1-norm, the L1-norm FPCs are less sensitive to the outliers than L2-norm FPCs which are the characteristic functions of symmetric covariance operator. A corresponding algorithm for solving the L1-norm maximized optimization model is extended to functional data based on the idea of the multivariate data L1-norm principal component analysis method. Numerical experiments show that L1-norm FPCA proposed in this paper has a better robustness than L2-norm FPCA, and the reconstruction ability of the L1-norm principal component analysis to the original uncontaminated functional data is as good as that of the L2-norm principal component analysis.