Upscaling scenarios are indispensable elements of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA). However, current studies reveal confusing terminology and a wide range of approaches in this area. Therefore, we first defined the term upscaling scenario as the description of a possible future target stage of emerging technology, including the development pathway from a current stage within the course of research and development to this future stage. Second, we developed the novel systematic scheme UpFunMatLCA for generating explorative scenarios based on possible development pathways of the specific group of emerging functional material (FunMat)‐based energy technologies, including status quo developments. UpFunMatLCA represents a three‐step extension of conventional LCAs to upscale the life cycle inventory of emerging FunMats. UpFunMatLCA is based on a clear definition of a current status quo (conceptual, lab, or pilot stage) and a target matured (fab) development stage. A core part of UpFunMatLCA is the so‐called upscaling module, providing specific modeling methods and data for the upscaling of FunMats. Using perovskite solar cells, photovoltaic devices based on several FunMats and attached with great expectations regarding the future efficient provision of solar energy, we demonstrate the application of UpFunMatLCA, focusing on the upstream greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the prospective manufacturing. In the discussion, we point out the application area of UpFunMatLCA and the possible extension to depict further environmental impacts beyond GHG to contribute to the sustainability assessment of emerging technologies in the early stages of development.

This study developed a methodology to estimate the amount of construction material in coastal buildings which are lost due to climate change-induced sea level rise. The Republic of Fiji was chosen as a case study; sea level rise is based on predictions by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the years 2050 and 2100. This study combines the concept of a geographic information system based digital inundation analysis with the concept of a material stock analysis. The findings show that about 4.5% of all existing buildings on Fiji will be inundated by 2050 because of an expected global sea level rise of 0.22 m (scenario 1) and 6.2% by 2100 for a sea level rise of 0.63 m (scenario 2). The number of buildings inundated by 2050 is equivalent to 40% of the average number of new constructed buildings in Fiji Islands in a single year. Overall, the amount of materials present in buildings which will be inundated by 2050 is 900,000 metric tons (815,650 metric tons of concrete, 52,100 metric tons of timber, and 31,680 metric tons of steel). By 2100, this amount is expected to grow to 1,151,000 metric tons (1,130,160 metric tons of concrete, 69,760 metric tons of timber, and 51,320 metric tons of steel). The results shall contribute in enhancing urban planning, climate change adaptation strategies, and the estimation of future demolition flows in small island developing states.

Modern industry benefits from the automation capabilities and flexibility of robots. Consequently, the performance depends on the individual task, robot and trajectory, while application periods of several years lead to a significant impact of the use phase on the resource efficiency. In this work, simulation models predicting a robot’s energy consumption are extended by an estimation of the reliability, enabling the consideration of maintenance to enhance the assessment of the application’s life cycle costs. Furthermore, a life cycle assessment yields the greenhouse gas emissions for the individual application. Potential benefits of the combination of motion simulation and cost analysis are highlighted by the application to an exemplary system. For the selected application, the consumed energy has a distinct impact on greenhouse gas emissions, while acquisition costs govern life cycle costs. Low cycle times result in reduced costs per workpiece, however, for short cycle times and higher payloads, the probability of required spare parts distinctly increases for two critical robotic joints. Hence, the analysis of energy consumption and reliability, in combination with maintenance, life cycle costing and life cycle assessment, can provide additional information to improve the resource efficiency.

Emerging photovoltaic technologies are expected to have lower environmental impacts during their life cycle due to their extremely thin-film technology and resulting material savings. The environmental impacts of four emerging photovoltaics were investigated based on a meta-analysis of life-cycle assessment (LCA) studies, comprising a systematic review and harmonization approach of five key indicators to describe the environmental status quo and future prospects. The status quo was analyzed based on a material-related functional unit of 1 watt-peak of the photovoltaic cell. For future prospects, the functional unit of 1 kWh of generated electricity was used, including assumptions on the use phase, notably on the lifetime. The results of the status quo show that organic photovoltaic technology is the most mature emerging photovoltaic technology with a competitive environmental performance, while perovskites have a low performance, attributed to the early stage of development and inefficient manufacturing on the laboratory scale. The results of future prospects identified improvements of efficiency, lifetime, and manufacturing with regard to environmental performance based on sensitivity and scenario analyses. The developed harmonization approach supports the use of LCA in the early stages of technology development in a structured way to reduce uncertainty and extract significant information during development.

In order to achieve the German greenhouse gas reduction targets, in particular, CO2 emissions of coal-fired power plants must be reduced. The co-incineration of biomass-based substitutes, here referred to as co-firing, is regarded as a highly cost-effective and short-term method of reducing CO2 emissions in the electricity sector. Another advantage of co-firing is its ability to meet base load demands and offer controllability. In this paper, we, therefore, evaluate the effectiveness of co-firing as a CO2 mitigation strategy in the German electricity sector by 2020. We consider the co-firing of three different substitutes: wood chips, industry pellets and torrefied biomass. Likewise, a comparison with three alternative mitigation strategies is part of the evaluation. We use seven sustainability indicators covering social, ecological and economic aspects as the basis for the evaluation. These sustainability indicators are determined by means of a merit order model, which enables us to simulate the electricity market in 2020 on an hourly basis and adjust it based on the assumption of widespread implementation of co-firing or one of the alternative mitigation strategies. Our results show that all mitigation strategies have a significant potential to reduce the CO2 emissions of the electricity sector. Compared with the alternative mitigation strategies, co-firing is characterised on the one hand by rather low mitigation potentials and on the other hand by low CO2 mitigation costs. The co-firing of industry pellets appears to have the most advantageous combination of mitigation potential and mitigation costs. The widespread implementation of co-firing with industry pellets until 2020 would have led to 21% reduction in CO2 emissions on average. Nevertheless, it cannot be implemented immediately because time is needed for political decisions to be taken and, afterwards, for the technical retrofitting of power plants. Co-firing will, therefore, not be available to contribute to the achievement of the greenhouse gas reduction targets for the year 2020. However, our approach can be used to assess the contribution of the various CO2 mitigation strategies to the ambitious mitigation targets for the year 2030.