Recent global modelling studies suggest a decline of long-distance trade in energy carriers in future global renewable energy systems, compared to today's fossil fuel based system. In contrast, we identify four drivers that facilitate trade of renewable energy carriers. These drivers may lead to trade volumes remaining at current levels or even to an increase during the transition to an energy system with very high shares of renewables. First, new land-efficient technologies for renewable fuel production become increasingly available and technically allow for long-distance trade in renewables. Second, regional differences in social acceptance and land availability for energy infrastructure support the development of renewable fuel import and export streams. Third, the economics of renewable energy systems, i.e. the different production conditions globally and the high costs of fully renewable regional electricity systems, will create opportunities for spatial arbitrage. Fourth, a reduction of stranded investments in the fossil fuel sector is possible by switching from fossil fuels to renewable fuel trade. The impact of these drivers on trade in renewable energy carriers is currently under-investigated by the global energy systems research community. The importance of the topic, in particular as trade can redistribute profits and losses of decarbonization and may hence support finding new partners in climate change mitigation negotiations, warrants further research efforts in this area therefore.

We analyse the impact of the current and an alternative stricter EU CO2 car legislation on transport related CO2 emissions, on the uptake of electric vehicles (EV), on the reduction of oil consumption, and on total energy system costs beyond 2020. We apply a TIMES based energy system model for Europe. Results for 2030 show that a stricter target of 70g CO2/km for cars could reduce total transport CO2 emissions by 5% and oil dependence by more than 2% compared to the current legislation. The stricter regulatory CO2 car target is met by a deployment of more efficient internal combustion engine cars and higher shares of EV Total system costs increase by less than 1%. The analysis indicates that EV deployment and the decarbonisation of the power system including higher shares of variable renewables can be synergistic. Our sensitivity analysis shows that the deployment of EV would sharply increase between 2020 and 2030 at learning rates above 12.5%, reaching shares above 30% in 2030. Finally, the study highlights that, besides legislating cars, policies for other transport sectors and modes are needed to curb transport related CO2 emission growth by 2030.JRC.F.8-Sustainable Transpor