Transportation system simulation is a widely accepted approach to evaluate the impact of transport policy deployment. In developing a transportation system deployment model, the energy impact of the model is extremely valuable for sustainability and validation. It is expected that different penetration levels of Connected-Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) will impact travel behavior due to changes in potential factors such as congestion, miles traveled, etc. Along with such impact analyses, it is also important to further quantify the regional energy impact of CAV deployment under different factors of interest. The objective of this paper is to study the energy consumption of electrified vehicles in the future for different penetration levels of CAVs deployment in the City of Chicago. The paper will further provide a statistical analysis of the results to evaluate the impact of the different penetration levels on the different electrified powertrains used in the study.

The broader ambition of this article is to popularize an approach for the fair distribution of the quantity of a system's output to its subsystems while allowing for underlying complex subsystem level interactions. Particularly, we present the use of this framework on a very specific (but generalizable) application, interesting for a more general AI audience. We detail a data-driven approach to vehicle price modeling and its component price estimation by leveraging a combination of concepts from machine learning and game theory. We show an alternative to common teardown methodologies and surveying approaches for component and vehicle price estimation at the manufacturer's suggested retail price (MSRP) level that has the advantage of bypassing uncertainties involved in gathering teardown data, the need to perform expensive and biased surveying, and the need to perform retail price equivalent or indirect cost multiplier adjustments to mark up direct manufacturing costs to MSRP. This novel exercise not only provides accurate pricing of the technologies at the customer level, but also shows the, a priori known, large gaps in pricing strategies between manufacturers, vehicle classes, market segments, etc. There is also clear interaction between the price of technologies and other specifications present in vehicles. Those results are indication that old methods of manufacturer-level component costing, aggregation, and application of flat and rigid adjustment factors should be carefully examined. The findings are based on a database developed by Argonne, which includes over 64 000 vehicles covering MY1990 to MY2020 with hundreds of vehicle specs.

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) supports research, development, and deployment of efficient, sustainable transportation technologies that will improve energy efficiency and fuel economy, and enable America to use less petroleum. To accelerate the development and adoption of new technologies, VTO has developed specific targets for a wide range of powertrain components, including the energy storage system. In this study, we use Autonomie, Argonne National Laboratory’s (Argonne’s) vehicle system simulation tool to evaluate future energy storage requirements (power, energy, etc.) for different vehicle classes, powertrains, component technologies and timeframes. BatPac, Argonne’s tool dedicated to energy storage pack design and costs, is then used to quantify the materials required for each pack. Market penetrations are then used to estimate the overall material demand worldwide and in the United States, with or without recycling. The results demonstrate that the positive impact of VTO research and development will lead to significant reduction in material compared to business-as-usual due to new anode and cathode designs, along with acceleration in battery cell chemistry penetrations. In terms of material demands, it is observed that lithium demand reaches about 80,000 tons (by a factor of 42–45), nickel demand reaches about 500,000 tons (by a factor of 47–56), manganese demand reaches about 30,000–50,000 tons (by a factor of 20–34), and cobalt demand reaches about 30,000 tons (by a factor of 13–28) in the future by 2050. The individual material demand per unit energy, however, decreases significantly in the future due to advances in VTO research and development activities. The increase in battery material demands is mostly driven by increased electrified vehicle fleet penetration in the markets.

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office (DOE-VTO) is driving advancements in highway transportation by targeting energy efficiency, environmental sustainability, and cost reductions. This study investigates the fuel economy potential and cost implications of advanced powertrain technologies using comprehensive system simulations. Leveraging tools such as Autonomie and TechScape, developed by Argonne National Laboratory, this study evaluates multiple timeframes (2023–2050) and powertrain types, including conventional internal combustion engines, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Simulations conducted across standard regulatory driving cycles provide detailed insights into fuel economy improvements, cost trajectories, and total cost of ownership. The findings highlight key innovations in battery energy density, lightweighting, and powertrain optimization, demonstrating the growing viability of BEVs and their projected economic competitiveness with conventional vehicles by 2050. This work delivers actionable insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders, underscoring the transformative potential of vehicle electrification in achieving sustainable transportation goals.

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office (DOE-VTO) supports research and development (R&D), as well as deployment of efficient and sustainable transportation technologies, that will improve energy efficiency and fuel economy and enable America to use less petroleum. To accelerate the creation and adoption of new technologies, DOE-VTO has developed specific targets for a wide range of powertrain technologies (e.g., engine, battery, electric machine, lightweighting, etc.). This paper quantifies the impact of VTO R&D on vehicle energy consumption and cost compared to expected historical improvements across vehicle classes, powertrains, component technologies and timeframes. We have implemented a large scale simulation process to develop and simulate tens of thousands of vehicles on U.S. standard driving cycles using Autonomie, a vehicle simulation tool developed by Argonne National Laboratory. Results demonstrate significant additional reductions in both cost and energy consumption due to the existence of VTO R&D targets compared to predicted historical trends. It is observed that, over time, the fuel consumption of different electrified vehicles is expected to decrease by 40–50% and a reduction of 45–55% for vehicle manufacturing costs owing to significant improvements through various VTO R&D targets.