Industry structure and social capital could affect traders, market performance and distribution of economic resources such as food. This study assesses the effect of industry structure and social capital on traders’ profitability and resilience. We use Bayes Model Averaging regression techniques to draw inferences from a random, representative and systematically selected sample of maize traders in the central region of Malawi. We complement our results with key informant prior information from industry experts and literature. Results indicate that at the local market level, few traders dominate but competition increases when we consider the entire district and region. Results also show that interaction with distant traders and brokers is associated with more profitable and resilient businesses. While we find evidence that social capital is positively associated with business profitability, results do not strongly support the hypothesis that other measures of social capital such as tribal and religious affiliation have an effect on traders’ resilience. Noteworthy, as the unit of closeness among traders decreases to family ties, profits tend to increase. This suggests a more group and kin selective evolutionary stable strategy among maize traders.

Small businesses could spur economic growth. Most African small businesses are not formally registered, and informality leads to loss of government revenue. This article assesses the effect of business registration on firm performance in Malawi’s maize sub-sector. The study uses panel data of 172 traders from Malawi, and instrumental variable estimation on a systematically drawn sample. The results indicate that when registered, traders make four times less profits. Variables such as sex, exporters, information gathering and general trading had positive effects on business profitability. Unless the business environment is reformed in favour of small businesses it does not pay to register.