Exploring impacts of urban expansion on ecosystem services has become a hot topic for regional sustainable development, while analyzing the ecological effects of urban expansion forms under different expansion intensities and city sizes is relatively rare. Therefore, taking a typical urban agglomeration, Shanghai-Hangzhou Bay Urban Agglomeration, as a case study, this study first analyzed the dynamics of urban expansion forms (leapfrogging, edge-expansion, and infilling) and four critical ecosystem services (carbon sequestration, food supply, habitat quality, and soil retention) in three periods from 1990 to 2019. The multiple linear regression model and zonal statistics analysis model were used to quantitatively identify the impacts of urban expansion forms on ecosystem services, taking into account different expansion intensities and city sizes. The results showed that the urban expansion trend in the study area experienced a morphological change from integration to diffusion and then to integration in 1990–2019; edge-expansion was the dominant expansion form. Food supply decreased continuously while other ecosystem services had fluctuating changes, and they all had spatial heterogeneity. The leapfrogging, edge-expansion, and infilling all had negative impacts on ecosystem services, and among them, the edge-expansion intensity had the highest influence degree in the early expansion, and the leapfrogging intensity occupied the dominant position in all influences with the expansion of urban scales. For different city sizes, the impact of edge-expansion in large-scale cities was greater than in small-scale cities in the early expansion, and the impact of leapfrogging in large-scale cities exceeded the edge-expansion in the subsequent expansion. These findings will help further understand the influential mechanisms between urban expansion and ecosystem services and provide a scientific basis for formulating reasonable urban planning.

Landslides are a common geodynamic phenomenon that cause substantial life and property damage worldwide. In the present study, we developed models to evaluate landslide susceptibility in forest-covered areas in Lin’an, southeastern China using logistic regression (LR), decision tree (DT), and random forest (RF) techniques. In addition to conventional landslide-related natural and human disturbance factors, factors describing forest cover, including forest type (two plantations (hickory and bamboo) and four natural forests (conifer, hardwood, shrub, and moso bamboo) and understory vegetation conditions, were included as predictors. Model performance was evaluated based on true-positive rate, Kappa value, and area under the ROC curve using a 10-fold cross-validation method. All models exhibited good performance with measures of ≥0.70, although the LR model was relatively inferior. The key predictors were forest type, understory vegetation height (UVH), normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI) in summer, distance to road (DTRD), and maximum daily rainfall (MDR). Hickory plantations yielded the highest landslide probability, while conifer and hardwood forests had the lowest values. Bamboo plantations had probability results comparable to those of natural forests. Using the RF model, areas with a shorter UVH (<1.2 m), a lower NDVI (115 mm), or a shorter DTRD (<500 m) were predicted to be landslide-prone. Information on forest cover is essential for predicting landslides in areas with rich forest cover, and conversion from natural forests to plantations could increase landslide risk. Across the study areas, the northwestern part was the most landslide-prone. In terms of landslide prevention, the RF model-based map produced the most accurate predictions for the “very high” category of landslide. These results will help us better understand landslide occurrences in forest-covered areas and provide valuable information for governments in designing disaster mitigation.

National land spatial planning is dominated by urban-agricultural-ecological functions and has become a Chinese national strategic issue. However, the three functional spaces have serious conflicts in the karst areas, causing inconsistencies in regional development and triggering poverty and a more serious situation for the ecological environment. In this study, we used the gray multi-objective dynamic programming model and the conversion of land use and its effects at small region extent model to simulate the developmental structures of future land use in the karst areas of Southwest China under a socioeconomic development scenario, an arable land protection scenario and an ecological security scenario. Finally, based on the coordination of the urban-agricultural-ecological functions, we used a functional space classification method to optimize the spatial structures of the national land space for 2035 year and to identify different functional areas. The results showed that the three scenarios with different objectives had differences in the quantities and spatial structures of land use but that the area of forestland was the largest and the area of water was the smallest in each scenario. The optimization of the national land space was divided into seven functional areas—urban space, agricultural space, ecological space, urban-agricultural space, urban-ecological space, agricultural-ecological space and urban-agricultural-ecological space. The ecological space was the largest and the urban-ecological space was the smallest among seven functional areas. The different types of functional spaces had significant differentiation characteristics in the layouts. The urban-agricultural space, urban-ecological space, agricultural-ecological space and urban-agricultural-ecological space can effectively alleviate the impacts of human activities and agricultural production activities in karst areas, promote the improvement of rocky desertification and improve the quality of the regional ecological environment. The results of this research can provide support for decisions about the balanced development of the national land space and the improvement of environmental quality in the karst areas.

Shrinking cities—cities suffering from population and economic decline—has become a pressing societal issue of worldwide concern. While night-time light (NTL) data have been applied as an important tool for the identification of shrinking cities, the current methods are constrained and biased by the lack of using long-term continuous NTL time series and the use of unidimensional indices. In this study, we proposed a novel method to identify and classify shrinking cities by long-term continuous NTL time series and population data, and applied the method in northeastern China (NEC) from 1996 to 2020. First, we established a long-term consistent NTL time series by applying a geographically weighted regression model to two distinct NTL datasets. Then, we generated NTL index (NI) and population index (PI) by random forest model and the slope of population data, respectively. Finally, we developed a shrinking city index (SCI), based on NI and PI to identify and classify city shrinkage. The results showed that the shrinkage pattern of NEC in 1996–2009 (stage 1) and 2010–2020 (stage 2) was quite different. From stage 1 to stage 2, the shrinkage situation worsened as the number of shrinking cities increased from 102 to 162, and the proportion of severe shrinkage increased from 9.2% to 30.3%. In stage 2, 85.4% of the cities exhibited population decline, and 15.7% of the cities displayed an NTL decrease, suggesting that the changes in NTL and population were not synchronized. Our proposed method provides a robust and long-term characterization of city shrinkage and is beneficial to provide valuable information for sustainable urban planning and decision-making.