Climate system teleconnections are crucial for improving climate predictability, but difficult to quantify. Standard approaches to identify teleconnections are often based on correlations between time series. Here we present a novel method leveraging Granger causality, which can infer/detect relationships between any two fields. We compare teleconnections identified by correlation and Granger causality at different timescales. We find that both Granger causality and correlation consistently recover known seasonal precipitation responses to the sea surface temperature pattern associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Such findings are robust across multiple time resolutions. In addition, we identify candidates for unexplored teleconnection responses.

The number of spatiotemporal data sets has increased rapidly in the last years, which demands robust and fast methods to extract information from this kind of data. Here, we propose a network-based model, called Chronnet, for spatiotemporal data analysis. The network construction process consists of dividing a geometric space into grid cells represented by nodes connected chronologically. Strong links in the network represent consecutive recurrent events between cells. The chronnet construction process is fast, making the model suitable to process large data sets. Using artificial and real data sets, we show how chronnets can capture data properties beyond simple statistics, like frequent patterns, spatial changes, outliers, and spatiotemporal clusters. Therefore, we conclude that chronnets represent a robust tool for the analysis of spatiotemporal data sets.

Rumor models consider that information transmission occurs with the same probability between each pair of nodes. However, this assumption is not observed in social networks, which contain influential spreaders. To overcome this limitation, we assume that central individuals have a higher capacity to convince their neighbors than peripheral subjects. From extensive numerical simulations we find that spreading is improved in scale-free networks when the transmission probability is proportional to the PageRank, degree, and betweenness centrality. In addition, the results suggest that spreading can be controlled by adjusting the transmission probabilities of the most central nodes. Our results provide a conceptual framework for understanding the interplay between rumor propagation and heterogeneous transmission in social networks.

Link prediction (LP) in networks aims at determining future interactions among elements; it is a critical machine-learning tool in different domains, ranging from genomics to social networks to marketing, especially in e-commerce recommender systems. Although many LP techniques have been developed in the prior art, most of them consider only static structures of the underlying networks, rarely incorporating the network’s information flow. Exploiting the impact of dynamic streams, such as information diffusion, is still an open research topic for LP. Information diffusion allows nodes to receive information beyond their social circles, which, in turn, can influence the creation of new links. In this work, we analyze the LP effects through two diffusion approaches, susceptible-infected-recovered and independent cascade. As a result, we propose the progressive-diffusion (PD) method for LP based on nodes’ propagation dynamics. The proposed model leverages a stochastic discrete-time rumor model centered on each node’s propagation dynamics. It presents low-memory and low-processing footprints and is amenable to parallel and distributed processing implementation. Finally, we also introduce an evaluation metric for LP methods considering both the information diffusion capacity and the LP accuracy. Experimental results on a series of benchmarks attest to the proposed method’s effectiveness compared with the prior art in both criteria.