Global terrestrial models currently predict that the Amazon rainforest will continue to act as a carbon sink in the future, primarily owing to the rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration. Soil phosphorus impoverishment in parts of the Amazon basin largely controls its functioning, but the role of phosphorus availability has not been considered in global model ensembles—for example, during the Fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project. Here we simulate the planned free-air CO₂ enrichment experiment AmazonFACE with an ensemble of 14 terrestrial ecosystem models. We show that phosphorus availability reduces the projected CO₂-induced biomass carbon growth by about 50% to 79 ± 63 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹ over 15 years compared to estimates from carbon and carbon–nitrogen models. Our results suggest that the resilience of the region to climate change may be much less than previously assumed. Variation in the biomass carbon response among the phosphorus-enabled models is considerable, ranging from 5 to 140 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹, owing to the contrasting plant phosphorus use and acquisition strategies considered among the models. The Amazon forest response thus depends on the interactions and relative contributions of the phosphorus acquisition and use strategies across individuals, and to what extent these processes can be upregulated under elevated CO₂.

Tropospheric ozone (O₃) is harmful to plant productivity and negatively impacts crop yields. O₃ concentrations are projected to decrease globally in the optimistic Representative Concentration Pathway of 2.6 W m^–2 (RCP2.6) but increase globally following the high-emission scenario under the RCP8.5, with substantial implications for global food security. The damaging effect of O₃ on future crop yield is affected by CO₂ fertilization and climate change, and their interactions for RCP scenarios have yet to be quantified. In this study, we used the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator modified to include crops (JULES-crop) to quantify the impacts, and relative importance of present-day and future O₃, CO₂ concentration and meteorology on crop production at the regional scale until 2100 following RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. We focus on eight major crop-producing regions that cover the production of wheat, soybean, maize, and rice. Our results show that CO₂ alone has the largest effect on regional yields, followed by climate and O₃. However, the CO₂ fertilization effect is offset by the negative impact of tropospheric O₃ in regions with high O₃ concentrations, such as South Asia and China. Simulated crop yields in 2050 were compared with Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) statistics to investigate the differences between a socioeconomic and a biophysical process-based approach. Results showed that FAO estimates are closer to our JULES-crop RCP8.5 scenario. This study demonstrates that air pollution could be the biggest threat to future food production and highlights an urgent policy need to mitigate the threat of climate change and O₃ pollution on food security.

Tropospheric ozone (O₃) is the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. O₃ is detrimental to plant productivity, and it has a significant impact on crop yield. Currently, the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model includes a representation of global crops (JULES-crop) but does not have crop-specific O₃ damage parameters and applies default C3 grass O₃ parameters for soybean that underestimate O₃ damage. Physiological parameters for O₃ damage in soybean in JULES-crop were calibrated against leaf gas-exchange measurements from the Soybean Free Air Concentration Enrichment (SoyFACE) with O₃ experiment in Illinois, USA. Other plant parameters were calibrated using an extensive array of soybean observations such as crop height and leaf carbon and meteorological data from FLUXNET sites near Mead, Nebraska, USA. The yield, aboveground carbon, and leaf area index (LAI) of soybean from the SoyFACE experiment were used to evaluate the newly calibrated parameters. The result shows good performance for yield, with the modelled yield being within the spread of the SoyFACE observations. Although JULES-crop is able to reproduce observed LAI seasonality, its magnitude is underestimated. The newly calibrated version of JULES will be applied regionally and globally in future JULES simulations. This study helps to build a state-of-the-art impact assessment model and contribute to a more complete understanding of the impacts of climate change on food production.

(1) Background: Hong Kong is one of the most densely populated cities in the world, with millions of people exposed to severe air pollution. Surface ozone, mostly produced photochemically from anthropogenic precursor gases, is harmful to both humans and vegetation. The phytotoxicity of ozone has been shown to damage plant photosynthesis, induce early leaf death, and retard growth. (2) Methods: We use genotypes of bush bean Phaseolus vulgaris with various degrees of sensitivity to ozone to investigate the impacts of ambient ozone on the morphology and development of the beans. We use ozone-induced foliar injury index and measure the flowering and fruit production to quantify the ozone stress on the plants. (3) Results: We expected that the ozone-sensitive genotype would suffer from a reduction of yield. Results, however, show that the ozone-sensitive genotype suffers higher ozone-induced foliar damage as expected but produces more pods and beans and heavier beans than the ozone-resistant genotype. (4) Conclusions: It is postulated that the high ozone sensitivity of the sensitive genotype causes stress-induced flowering, and therefore results in higher bean yield. A higher than ambient concentration of ozone is needed to negatively impact the yield production of the ozone-sensitive genotype. Meanwhile, ozone-induced foliar damage shows a graduated scale of damage pattern that can be useful for indicating ozone levels. This study demonstrates the usefulness of bioindicators to monitor the phytotoxic effects of ozone pollution in a subtropical city such as Hong Kong.