Donghyun Lee

Mr. Donghyun Lee


Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

5Years (2022-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

View All Publications
23 October 2022 in Energies
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
AJA Hyun Jung
A Hyun Jung
DLDonghyun Lee
Donghyun Lee
Jin-Young KimJin-Young Kim
Jin-Young Kim
Chang KimChang Kim
Chang Kim
Hyun-Goo KimHyun-Goo Kim
Hyun-Goo Kim
YLYung-Seop Lee
Yung-Seop Lee
Renewable energy forecasting is a key for efficient resource use in terms of power generation and safe grid control. In this study, we investigated a short-term statistical forecasting model with 1 to 3 h horizons using photovoltaic operation data from 215 power plants throughout South Korea. A vector autoregression (VAR) model-based regional photovoltaic power forecasting system is proposed for seven clusters of power plants in South Korea. This method showed better predictability than the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The normalized root-mean-square errors of hourly photovoltaic generation predictions obtained from VAR (ARIMA) were 8.5–10.9% (9.8–13.0%) and 18.5–22.8% (21.3–26.3%) for 1 h and 3 h horizon, respectively, at 215 power plants. The coefficient of determination, R2 was higher for VAR, at 4–5%, than ARIMA. The VAR model had greater accuracy than ARIMA. This will be useful for economical and efficient grid management.